Can Ukraine’s drones shut Russian airspace? What that means for airlines

Ukraine is escalating drone operations targeting energy facilities and other infrastructure deep within Russian territory, prompting calls for airlines to avoid Russian airspace. Aviation risk advisory firm Osprey Flight Solutions warns that these attacks are likely to continue and increase in frequency. Chinese, Turkish, and Gulf state airlines are among those still utilizing Russian airspace for routes between Asia and Europe, while most other carriers have avoided the region since February 2022. In response, Russian President Putin stated that Russia will intensify its own attacks on Ukraine, describing Ukraine's actions as those of "terrorists" and acknowledging damage to Russian infrastructure. Russia's military has indicated it is preparing "massive" strikes on Ukrainian power stations.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned airlines to avoid Russian airspace, stating that Ukraine's drones will make it "completely unsafe" for the duration of the war. Zelensky indicated that the skies over Russia are becoming a place for drones, not civilian aviation, and that the number of these drones has increased recently, causing disruptions at Russian airports. Russian President Vladimir Putin responded by accusing Ukraine of "state terrorism." This warning comes as both sides have intensified long-range attacks and diplomatic efforts remain stalled over four years into Russia's invasion. Zelensky clarified that Ukraine does not threaten civilian aircraft but rather that the presence of drones will necessitate consideration by airlines, insurers, and those using Russian airports.