Tuesday briefing: How the conflict in Iran shattered the Gulf state image of peace and luxury

On March 2, 2026, Iran's retaliatory strikes against US assets in the Gulf region entered their third day, escalating fears of a prolonged conflict. Explosions were reported in Dubai, Doha, and Kuwait, with Kuwaiti air defenses intercepting drones near residential areas. Iran stated the attacks were in response to ongoing US-Israeli strikes on Iran, targeting US military assets and impacting civilian areas across Gulf cities. Bahrain activated air raid alerts and closed a major bridge. Casualties have been reported in Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar, while US-Israeli attacks have resulted in significant casualties in Iran and Israel. The US, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE jointly condemned Iran's attacks and affirmed their right to self-defense.

Multiple Gulf nations, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait, reported missile and drone attacks on Saturday. These attacks occurred despite an earlier apology from the Iranian president to Gulf countries, where he stated they would not be targeted unless strikes originated from their territory. Hours later, Iran declared its intent to continue strikes on sites within Gulf countries it considered to be at the disposal of its enemies. The UAE's president acknowledged the country was in "a period of war." Dubai authorities reported one death, a Pakistani national, resulting from debris from an aerial interception. Kuwait's national oil company announced a precautionary cut to production.

The Middle East conflict intensified as Israel and the US launched strikes against Iran, targeting command facilities, state offices, and missile sites. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Israel and US interests across the Gulf region. The escalating violence has resulted in hundreds of deaths and billions of dollars in damage, primarily in Iran, raising concerns about a global economic crisis due to soaring energy prices. US President Trump stated he rejected Iran's attempt to negotiate and claimed significant damage to Iranian infrastructure. Iran denied seeking negotiations and called on the UN Security Council to intervene, while threatening further retaliation against the US and Israel. The conflict expanded with attacks on key Iranian sites, including a building used by the committee that chooses the Supreme Leader's successor.

Dubai residents and tourists were shaken when Iranian missiles and drones approached the Gulf states over the weekend, triggering air defenses in the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain. Many initially mistook the interceptors for fireworks, as Dubai attempted to maintain its image of stability amidst regional conflict. While some residents received official alerts, others were caught off guard. Fires and smoke were reported at Dubai and Abu Dhabi airports due to drone debris, resulting in one death and several injuries. Smoke was also seen at the Jebel Ali port area in Dubai, one of the busiest ports in the Middle East. The incident challenged Dubai's long-held perception as a safe haven insulated from regional political turmoil.

Following the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, US officials are reportedly skeptical that a regime change in Iran is likely in the near future. Despite President Trump's call for Iranian patriots to "take back" their country, three US officials familiar with intelligence suggest that Iran's opposition is unlikely to topple the current theocratic government. While not completely ruling out the possibility due to ongoing US and Israeli air strikes and internal unrest, officials consider a near-term regime change improbable. The Iranian President, along with other officials, have temporarily assumed the duties of the supreme leader. The US and Israeli operation aimed to cripple Iran's ballistic missile and nuclear programs, with some US officials suggesting toppling the government as a goal.

A coordinated US-Israeli strike targeted Iran on Saturday, reportedly killing several top Iranian leaders, including the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The operation involved a precision strike on a key target in Tehran, believed to be Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s compound, alongside a broader offensive using US-deployed kamikaze drones. US Central Command confirmed the use of these one-way attack drones, modeled after Iranian Shahed drones, for the first time in combat during "Operation Epic Fury." The attack, described as a "wildly bold daytime attack," targeted Iranian military, government, and intelligence sites, catching senior leadership off guard. Former President Trump announced that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had been killed in the strike.

Following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran faces a precarious situation with internal divisions and mounting external pressures. While some celebrated, hoping for an end to clerical rule, others mourned and demanded retribution. Despite maintaining military power, the regime faces a growing list of dead leaders, including high-ranking military officials, straining its leadership and resources. Simultaneously, Iran's regional relationships are deteriorating, with its Gulf partners criticizing its actions and accusing it of playing into the hands of the US. The Strategic Council on Foreign Relations pleaded with Gulf states to unite against the US, but the UAE countered that Iran's aggression is self-isolating. The article suggests that without a change in direction, the Iranian regime risks a breakdown in civil order.

Following the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in US-Israeli strikes, questions arise about the stability of the Islamic Republic. While some analysts predicted a potential collapse, initial signs suggest a hardening of the current regime, with security institutions consolidating power. In the immediate aftermath, paramilitary units deployed nationwide to prevent unrest, and Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Israeli and US-linked targets. Despite these actions, the attacks struggled to penetrate Israeli defenses or inflict substantial damage on American forces. Analysts warn that a contested interim period, potentially leading to increased military control, poses a greater risk than an orderly transition. The future of Iran's leadership and political structure remains uncertain.

In March 2026, Al Jazeera reported on the potential impact of the hypothetical killing of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. While some US officials and Iranian opposition groups believe his death would signify the end of the Islamic Republic, Al Jazeera's Soraya Lennie argues that this is not necessarily the case. The report suggests that the Supreme Leader's death and the existence of the Islamic Republic are not inextricably linked. The analysis explores why the system of government in Iran may persist even without its current leader. The report aims to provide a nuanced understanding of the complexities of Iranian politics and power structures.

A war launched by the US and Israel on Iran has rapidly escalated, spreading across the Middle East. On Saturday, Iran struck the Fairmont hotel in Dubai's Palm Jumeirah area, causing a fire and injuring four people. The attack on the Dubai hotel is part of a wider conflict that has sparked anxiety and concern throughout the region, with reports of explosions in Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait. The initial US-Israeli attack on Iran appears to be the catalyst for the escalating regional conflict. The reasons for the initial attack were not specified in this report.

On February 28, 2026, Iran confirmed retaliatory attacks on US assets located in Gulf Arab states, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, following a joint US-Israeli attack on Iran. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility, stating that all US and Israeli military targets in the Middle East were struck. Bahrain reported an attack targeting the US Navy's 5th Fleet headquarters, while Kuwait experienced explosions near the US military's Central Command headquarters. Qatar's Defense Ministry stated it intercepted missiles before they reached Qatari territory. The UAE reported at least one death in Abu Dhabi after intercepting missiles launched from Iran.

Iran launched missiles and drones targeting Israel and US military installations in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar in response to recent attacks by the US and Israel. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated the action was in defense of the homeland. The UAE and Iraq closed their airspace, and shrapnel from an Iranian missile killed one person in the UAE. Israel issued a nationwide warning and activated its missile defense systems to intercept incoming projectiles. There were initially few reports of damage or injuries in Israel.

Iranian state TV released a video on Tuesday showcasing the Revolutionary Guard conducting a military drill along the coast. The exercise involved launching missiles, flying drones, and firing guns at targets. While the exact time and location of the drill were not specified, the video highlights Iran's military capabilities. Despite being outgunned by the US in a potential war, Iran possesses the capacity to inflict considerable damage. The article also includes file photos of Iranian military displays, joint drills with Russian forces, and the aftermath of missile strikes in Tel Aviv, Israel.

Following reported strikes in Iran by the US and Israel, Australia's National Security Committee is convening. Foreign Minister Penny Wong stated Australia was not informed in advance of the strikes and has updated travel advice for Israel, Lebanon, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. A crisis center has been activated to provide consular support to Australians in the region, and a registration portal has opened for Australians in Iran and Israel. Wong emphasized Iran's destabilizing role in the region and stated that Australia did not participate in the strikes. The Australian government advises Australians in the affected region to follow travel advice and seek safety, acknowledging potential difficulties with repatriation due to airspace closures.

In February 2026, reports emerged that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in joint US-Israeli air strikes on his compound in Iran. Khamenei assumed leadership in 1989 after the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who led the Islamic Revolution. While Khomeini provided the revolution's ideology, Khamenei developed Iran's military and paramilitary forces, extending its influence beyond its borders. His distrust of the West, particularly the United States, stemmed from the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, during which Western countries supported Saddam Hussein. This shaped his belief that Iran needed constant defense against external and internal threats, leading to the rise of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a powerful institution.

Exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has called on Iranians to overthrow the current regime following reported joint U.S.-Israeli strikes. Pahlavi described the strikes as "humanitarian intervention" targeting the Islamic Republic, not the Iranian people, and urged the U.S. to protect civilian lives. He appealed to Iran's military and security forces to defect from the regime and join the people, promising a stable transition. While predicting the regime's collapse, Pahlavi advised citizens to remain home for now, awaiting his signal to return to the streets for a final push. He framed the moment as a decisive opportunity for Iranians to reclaim their country.