Middle East oil exports surpass pre-war levels despite tensions, data shows

Despite ongoing tensions, Middle East oil exports have surpassed pre-war levels on several days in late September, according to provisional data from ship-tracking firm Kpler. Crude exports from the region exceeded pre-war averages of 18 million barrels per day (bpd) on four days in the last week of September, reaching up to 22.5 million bpd. This occurred as a senior IRGC commander claimed that oil flows through US-supervised routes in the Strait of Hormuz were "negligible" and stated that US vessels were absent from key waterways. The commander also asserted that Iran had successfully attacked ships, including US Navy vessels, near the Strait of Hormuz, forcing a repositioning of US warships.

Crude oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz have largely returned to pre-war levels, with producers and the shipping industry utilizing alternative transport methods like pipelines and ship-to-ship transfers. Approximately 40% of crude is now moved without transiting the strait, a significant increase from before the conflict. Despite this recovery, the flow of refined products, such as diesel, remains constrained, leading to higher prices. This is evidenced by UK diesel prices reaching an all-time high, with significantly reduced volumes being transported compared to pre-war levels. While workarounds have been found, the underlying threat to shipping in the region persists, impacting global oil prices.