Middle East oil exports surpass pre-war levels despite tensions, data shows

IRGC commander says oil flows through US-supervised route in Hormuz are ‘negligible’.Crude oil exports from the Middle East have risen above pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the last week of September, provisional data from ship-tracking firm Kpler showed.However, senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Ali Fadavi said in a televised interview on Sunday night that only three to four million barrels of oil per day (bpd) are now moving through the route, dismissing the amount as “negligible” when compared with pre-war traffic.Recommended Stories list of 3 itemslist 1 of 3Iran says Hormuz to remain closed until US meets conditionslist 2 of 3US withdraws B-1 bomber aircraft from UK’s Fairford base amid Iran fearslist 3 of 3Why is fighting intensifying in Yemen’s Taiz governorate?end of listFadavi said, for the first time, no US vessels were present in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, the Sea of Oman or even the northern Indian Ocean and US warships are “100 percent vulnerable” to IRGC attacks.Kpler data showed crude exports from the region exceeded pre-war levels on September 24 and between September 27 and 29, rising to 19.5-22.5 million bpd.Around that time, Iran claimed success in attacking ships – including US Navy vessels – near the Strait of Hormuz, saying the strikes had forced Washington to move its warships further from the Iranian coast.Before the US-Israel war on Iran began, exports averaged 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February 2026.According to Kpler data, the overall tally for crude, oil products, chemicals and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the seven days to September 30.On October 1, the seven-day moving average for crude exports was at 18.5 million bpd. This includes transits via the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, exports from terminals and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.