Four years into the Ukraine war, Moscow sees vindication, not failure

As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its fifth year, peace talks have accelerated, particularly with renewed U.S. involvement under President Trump, who aims for a peace agreement by June. Despite these efforts, fighting continues, with Russia making slow, costly advances in eastern Ukraine, particularly in the Donetsk region, while Ukraine mounts tactical counteroffensives. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russia shows little sign of compromise, reiterating pre-war demands and employing tactics to influence the U.S. administration. An expert from ISW suggests Russia is positioning for a prolonged war, evidenced by preparations for a potential spring or summer offensive and continued focus on capturing remaining Ukrainian-held areas of Donetsk.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that he believes Russian President Vladimir Putin has started World War III. In an interview with BBC, Zelensky expressed his differing view on the conflict compared to US President Donald Trump. He believes Putin's actions have already led to a global conflict and Ukraine is preventing it from escalating into a full-scale war. Zelensky attributes Russia's intentions to impose a different way of life on the world, which he sees as a threat. He also emphasized the need for reliable security guarantees from the US that are not dependent on individual presidents, citing the importance of institutional stability. The comments were made ahead of the fourth anniversary of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

On February 23, 2026, day 1,460 of the Russia-Ukraine war saw intensified fighting across multiple regions. Russia attacked Lviv, Kyiv, and other areas, targeting energy infrastructure, residential buildings, and the railway, causing casualties and power outages. Ukraine reported shooting down a majority of the incoming missiles and drones. In response, Ukraine called for tougher international sanctions against Russia. Simultaneously, Ukraine attacked Russian-occupied Zaporizhia and Luhansk, impacting power and fuel supplies. Russia reported a "massive" Ukrainian missile attack on Belgorod, disrupting essential services, and drone attacks near Moscow. Both sides accuse each other of targeting civilian infrastructure.

In February 2026, as the Ukraine war enters its fifth year, Moscow believes the 2022 invasion was a necessary gamble, not a failure. Russian political elites view the war as ending on their terms, driven by pragmatic motives, primarily to prevent NATO expansion towards Russia's borders. The conflict allowed security elites to eliminate pro-Western opposition and consolidate power. The decision to invade also stemmed from Ukraine's initial attempts at rapprochement with Russia under President Zelenskyy, which were later abandoned due to internal pressures. Many Russians see the war as a proxy conflict with NATO, benefiting security elites and hawkish Western lobbyists.

On the anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer declared the conflict "the most critical issue of our age." Starmer announced continued and increased UK support for Ukraine, emphasizing Britain's unwavering commitment. He stated that the war tests the endurance of Ukrainian and European freedom, asserting that Russia is not and will not be victorious. Starmer affirmed the UK's dedication to standing with Ukraine until a just and lasting peace is achieved, highlighting Ukraine's courage in defending shared values against Russian aggression. The statement was part of a press release announcing further UK assistance to Ukraine.

Vladyslav Vlasiuk, Ukraine's commissioner for sanctions policy, is working to increase economic pressure on Russia to weaken its war effort. For the past four years, he has been lobbying Western allies to tighten sanctions on Russia, focusing on areas like oil companies and the flow of Western-made components into Russian weapons. Vlasiuk's role, under President Zelensky, is crucial as Ukraine believes sustained pressure is necessary to force Moscow to compromise. While initial efforts saw limited success, recent signs indicate Russia's economy is beginning to feel the impact of sanctions. Vlasiuk's work involves persuading hesitant Western nations and countering Russia's attempts to evade sanctions. He hopes that 2026 will be the tipping point.

On the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, European officials visited the country to demonstrate their support. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the nation, commending the resilience of the Ukrainian people. Memorial services were held in Lviv to honor fallen soldiers, with relatives gathering at the Field of Honorary Burials. Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, along with the Prime Ministers of Sweden and Norway, traveled to Kyiv to meet with Zelenskyy and attend a service at St. Sophia Cathedral. The visits served as a show of solidarity with Ukraine as the war continues.

In a video address marking the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged Donald Trump to visit Ukraine, specifically Kyiv. Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine has not been broken and will not betray its people in negotiations with Russia. He emphasized that seeing Ukraine firsthand is crucial to understanding the reality of the war and identifying Russia as the aggressor. Zelenskyy recalled a phone call from President Biden offering to help him leave the country, but he declined. The address included footage from the early days of the invasion and showed Zelenskyy at a memorial for fallen soldiers. Trump has not yet accepted Zelenskyy's invitation to visit.

Trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States resumed in Geneva, Switzerland, on February 18, 2026, marking the third round of negotiations aimed at resolving the ongoing conflict. The talks occur as the four-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine approaches. While details remain scarce, US special envoy Steve Witkoff indicated "meaningful progress," stating both sides agreed to update their leaders and continue working towards a deal. Ukraine's lead negotiator, Rustem Umerov, acknowledged the constructive engagement of the American counterparts. Previous talks in Abu Dhabi yielded prisoner exchanges but failed to address the core issue of territorial disputes, with Russia demanding the Donbas region, a demand Ukraine constitutionally opposes. The negotiations focus on practical issues and potential solutions.

In an interview with Axios published on Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed concern over what he perceives as undue pressure from former US President Donald Trump to resolve the ongoing conflict with Russia. Zelensky stated that Trump has been publicly calling on Ukraine, rather than Russia, to make concessions in peace negotiations. He added that any peace plan requiring Ukraine to cede territory in the Donbas region not currently occupied by Russia would be rejected in a referendum. Zelensky voiced hope that Trump's stance was merely a negotiating tactic. Trump recently stated that Ukraine needs to quickly come to the table for negotiations to be successful. The interview was conducted as Russian, Ukrainian, and US negotiators held talks in Geneva.

Peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the US in Geneva this week concluded without a breakthrough. The meetings, aimed at resolving the ongoing war in Ukraine, were described as "difficult" by both Russian and Ukrainian representatives due to disagreements on territory and ceasefire terms. While a US envoy expressed initial optimism, key issues remain unresolved after four years of conflict. Despite the challenges, both sides indicated the discussions were "businesslike" and "substantive," with a potential future meeting planned. Ukrainian President Zelensky accused Russia of prolonging negotiations, while also suggesting a possible prisoner exchange. The US has signaled impatience with the deadlock, urging Ukraine to compromise, a sentiment Zelensky has rejected.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Vladimir Putin's historical arguments as a "delay tactic" in peace negotiations, urging a focus on ending the war. Zelenskyy stated that debating history would only prolong the process and that the only relevant discussion is how to achieve a swift resolution. His comments followed talks in Switzerland between Ukrainian, U.S., and Russian officials, which Zelenskyy suggested yielded limited progress, particularly on sensitive political matters. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte questioned Russia's seriousness about negotiations, noting the presence of Vladimir Medinsky, known for emphasizing historical narratives. Medinsky described the talks as "difficult but businesslike."

Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the former army chief of Ukraine and now ambassador to the United Kingdom, has revealed a rift between himself and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In an interview with the Associated Press in London on February 2, 2026, Zaluzhnyi, who is seen as a potential political rival to Zelenskyy, discussed the previously unseen tensions. The article suggests the disagreement may stem from differing views on the direction of the war and potentially, political ambitions. The revelation comes after Zaluzhnyi was removed from his position as army chief in February 2024. The details of the rift and its potential impact on Ukraine's political landscape remain to be seen.

After President Trump's return to the White House in January 2025, his promise to quickly end the war in Ukraine has not materialized. In 2025, the conflict worsened for Ukrainians, with increased civilian casualties and Russian territorial gains. Trump shifted U.S. policy by reducing aid to Ukraine by 99% and halting weapon shipments unless paid for, while simultaneously making overtures to Russia. Meanwhile, Russia increased weapons production and attacks, severely damaging Ukraine's power grid. Negotiations involving Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. are scheduled, as Trump seeks to be credited with ending the war.

On Saturday, Ukrainian drones struck an industrial site in Russia's Udmurt Republic, wounding 11 people. While regional head Alexander Brechalov confirmed the attack and resulting damage, he did not identify the specific site. However, a Russian news channel, Astra, reported the target was the Votkinsk Machine Building Plant, a key state-owned missile factory that produces Iskander and intercontinental ballistic missiles. The attack, which occurred over 1,400 kilometers from Ukraine, prompted the suspension of operations at the Udmurt Republic's main airport and others nearby. This strike follows unsuccessful U.S.-brokered peace talks between Russia and Ukraine held in Switzerland earlier in the week, as the fourth anniversary of the war approaches.

Russia launched missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities overnight amid stalled peace talks. Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Russia is hesitant to engage in another round of US-brokered negotiations, proposed to be held in Miami or Abu Dhabi next week. While Ukraine has confirmed its attendance, the Kremlin indicated that talks are expected "soon" without providing specifics. These developments occur as a US-led peace effort faces a June deadline, with disagreements over occupied territories in the Donbas region and Russian demands for further territorial concessions hindering a comprehensive settlement after four years of conflict.

On day 1,445 of the Russia-Ukraine war, February 8, 2026, Russia launched over 400 drones and 40 missiles targeting Ukraine's power grid, hitting thermal power stations and distribution lines, leaving over 1,000 apartment buildings in Kyiv without heating. Poland briefly suspended operations at two airports near the Ukrainian border due to the strikes. Ukraine retaliated by striking an oil depot in Russia's Saratov region, a missile fuel component plant in the Tver region, and the Bryansk region, causing damage and power disruptions. Russia claimed to have captured the village of Chuhunivka in Ukraine's Kharkiv region. The International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Ukrainian nuclear power plants reduced output due to the military activity affecting electrical substations.

Russian drone and missile attacks across Ukraine have caused widespread power outages and left hundreds of thousands without essential services. In Odesa, nearly 300,000 people are without water and 200 buildings lack heating. Kyiv also experienced significant disruptions, with 3,500 buildings without heating due to power outages affecting thousands of high-rise buildings. The attacks, which occurred overnight, also injured four people in Dnipro, including two children. A thermal power plant belonging to DTEK suffered extensive damage in the eleventh large-scale attack on the company since October 2025. Ukraine's foreign minister condemned the attacks, stating they undermine diplomatic efforts to end the war and called for increased pressure on Moscow.

Russian and Ukrainian envoys will meet in Geneva next week, February 17-18, for US-brokered talks aimed at finding a resolution to the ongoing war. This round of negotiations follows two previous meetings in Abu Dhabi and comes as the conflict approaches its fourth year. The primary sticking point remains the future of the Donbas region, with Russia demanding Ukraine withdraw from the portion of Donetsk it still controls. Ukraine seeks Western security guarantees to prevent future Russian offensives. The US has reportedly given both sides a June deadline to reach an agreement. The conflict, which began in 2022, has resulted in hundreds of thousands of military and civilian casualties.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the U.S. is proposing a deal to end the Russia-Ukraine war by June, potentially influenced by upcoming U.S. midterm elections. Zelensky indicated that the next round of peace talks could occur in about a week, following a proposed energy truce. The U.S. has advised both Ukraine and Russia to halt strikes on energy targets as a de-escalation measure, which Ukraine has accepted. However, shortly after Zelensky's comments, Russian forces launched a missile and drone barrage targeting Ukraine's power grid, leaving much of western Ukraine without essential services.

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the U.S. has set a June deadline for Ukraine and Russia to reach a peace agreement to end their nearly four-year war. Zelenskyy stated that the U.S. is likely to pressure both countries to meet this schedule, potentially hosting trilateral talks in Miami next week. President Trump expressed optimism about the talks, and the U.S. described recent discussions in Abu Dhabi as "constructive," noting an agreement for a prisoner swap involving 157 prisoners from each side. The U.S. and Russia have also agreed to establish a new military-to-military communication channel led by General Alexus Grynkewich. The goal of these efforts is to create conditions for a lasting peace.

Trilateral talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine will resume in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday and Thursday, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The negotiations aim to find a resolution to the ongoing war, following a previous round in late January that yielded little progress, particularly regarding territorial disputes. Russia continues to demand Ukraine cede a portion of the Donetsk region. The talks are occurring amid US pressure for a deal and a fragile ceasefire on energy targets, brokered by US President Donald Trump, who claims a deal is close. The US and Russian envoys also held separate talks in Florida.

On Saturday, February 7, 2026, Russia launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, including high-voltage transmission lines, power plants, and substations, causing widespread emergency outages. The strikes, involving hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles, prompted Ukraine to request emergency electricity assistance from Poland. According to Ukraine's energy minister, the attacks forced nuclear power plant operators to reduce or shut down reactor output as a precaution. These strikes are the latest in a series targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure during the winter. The attacks occurred shortly after peace talks showed little progress, with the next round of negotiations scheduled for mid-February in Miami, involving delegations from Ukraine, Russia, and the United States.

Russia launched a large-scale drone and missile attack on Ukraine, targeting its energy grid and leaving hundreds of thousands without heating during freezing temperatures. The strikes occurred on Tuesday, coinciding with Ukraine experiencing its coldest weather since the Russian invasion began and damaging a WWII monument. The attack took place a day before scheduled peace talks between Ukrainian and Russian negotiators in Abu Dhabi. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the attack, accusing Russia of prioritizing terror over diplomacy. The attack also coincided with a surprise visit to Kyiv by NATO chief Mark Rutte, who met with Zelensky.

Following a supposed weeklong truce, Russia renewed attacks on Kyiv and Kharkiv, Ukraine, on Tuesday, February 3, 2026, targeting energy infrastructure. Ukrainian officials reported that Russia launched 450 drones and over 60 missiles overnight, leaving 1,170 residential buildings in Kyiv without heating as temperatures plummeted to -17 degrees Celsius. The attacks affected five districts in Kyiv, damaging apartment blocks and a kindergarten. At least four people were wounded in the strikes. According to unconfirmed reports, two thermal power plants in the capital were hit. The renewed attacks come after a reported agreement for Russia to pause attacks amid freezing weather.

Over 1,000 residential buildings in Kyiv were without heating after a Russian air attack during one of the coldest nights of the winter, with temperatures falling to -20C. The Kremlin launched 450 drones and over 70 missiles across Ukraine, causing damage in five districts and injuring at least nine people. The attacks occurred overnight, prompting an air raid alert that remained in effect for over five hours. Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy criticized the attacks as a demonstration of Russia's disinterest in peace talks, scheduled to take place in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday and Thursday. The attack also damaged facilities used to heat water for distribution to homes, leaving hundreds of thousands of families without heating during extreme cold conditions.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet for talks in Kyiv, stating he would not meet in Moscow or Belarus. This comes after the Kremlin said they invited Zelenskyy to Moscow for talks but received no response. Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, mediated by the US, took place in Abu Dhabi last week, with another meeting scheduled for Sunday, although the date and location may change. These discussions are happening amidst the ongoing conflict, with Zelenskyy seeking to inflict heavy losses on Russian forces. US President Trump stated that Putin agreed to pause attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure for a week due to extreme cold weather.

Donald Trump claimed that Vladimir Putin agreed to a one-week halt of strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure after a personal appeal, citing extreme cold in Ukraine. This alleged ceasefire, unconfirmed by Russia, was announced during a White House meeting. Trump stated he informed Ukrainian officials, who were reportedly pleased. Volodymyr Zelenskyy acknowledged expecting the implementation of such an agreement. The claim follows recent Russian strikes that left over a million people in Kyiv without power. Talks between Ukraine and Russia are expected to continue in Abu Dhabi this weekend, despite a Kremlin aide rejecting assertions that territorial issues are the only remaining obstacle to peace.

U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff held "productive and constructive meetings" with Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev in Florida on Saturday as part of the Trump administration's effort to end the Russia-Ukraine war. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Jared Kushner, and Josh Gruenbaum also attended the meetings. Witkoff, Kushner, and Gruenbaum previously met with Putin in Moscow and then with negotiators from Ukraine and Russia, with Zelenskyy describing the talks as constructive. Trump stated that Putin agreed to halt strikes on Kyiv for one week due to the extreme cold. Witkoff expressed optimism that Russia is working toward peace in Ukraine and that a peace deal is expected soon.

Ukraine is bracing for severe winter weather as President Trump announced that Russia's Putin agreed to halt attacks on Ukraine's power grid. Trump stated Putin agreed to his request to pause targeting Kyiv and other towns for one week due to the frigid temperatures causing hardship for civilians. However, Trump did not specify when the call with Putin occurred or when the moratorium would begin, and the White House has not provided further clarification. The Kremlin has not confirmed Putin's commitment. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy expressed skepticism about Russia's willingness to end the war, which is approaching its fourth anniversary next month.

On day 1,437 of the Russia-Ukraine war, January 31, 2026, a fragile pause in attacks on energy infrastructure began, reportedly at the request of former US President Trump to create favorable conditions for negotiations. Despite this, Kyiv still faces heating issues in numerous apartment buildings amid plummeting temperatures. Fighting continued, with Russian forces attacking a minibus in the Kherson region, resulting in casualties. Russian attacks in the Kherson region killed one woman and injured another. Ukraine reported that it was attacked with missiles and over 100 drones, with approximately 80 drones being shot down. Russia claimed to have seized the village of Ternuvate in the Zaporizhia region.

A technical malfunction on Saturday caused the failure of key electricity lines connecting Ukraine with Moldova and Romania, leading to mass power outages across Ukraine. The incident, which occurred at 10:42 am, affected both the 400-kilovolt line between Romania and Moldova and the 750-kilovolt line between western and central Ukraine. The outages disrupted water supplies in Kyiv and forced the shutdown of the city's metro system, impacting transportation for many residents. Ukraine's Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal stated that power restoration efforts were underway and expected to be completed within hours. President Zelensky called the event an emergency and emphasized the need to quickly stabilize the situation.

The UN's nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, held a special session in Vienna on January 30, 2026, to address growing concerns about nuclear safety risks in Ukraine due to Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi warned that the war poses the world's biggest threat to nuclear safety, as Ukrainian nuclear plants rely on external power from substations for reactor cooling, even when shut down. The meeting followed an IAEA inspection of 10 crucial electrical substations. While Ukraine has four nuclear plants, the Zaporizhzhia plant, occupied by Russian forces, is of particular concern as it requires constant power for cooling and security. The meeting, requested by the Netherlands and supported by other countries, aimed to increase pressure on Russia to avoid actions that could lead to a nuclear accident.

As a pause in Russian strikes on Kyiv nears its end, Ukraine is working to bolster its air defenses, particularly against drones, in frontline cities and border regions. The pause, reportedly requested by Donald Trump and agreed to by Vladimir Putin until February 1st, is intended to create favorable conditions for negotiations. Despite the halt, Russian officials have publicly advocated for escalation, and Ukrainian officials emphasize there is no formal ceasefire. Experts suggest the pause is more symbolic, reflecting political signaling and Trump's relationship with Putin, rather than a significant military shift. Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine is strengthening short-range air defenses against drones to protect frontline cities in the south and northeast.