'We are at the edge of a battlefield': BBC reports near Strait of Hormuz

Amidst the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran in March 2026, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared it would block all oil tankers from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil supplies. The IRGC warned that any vessel linked to the US, Israel, or their allies would be considered a legitimate target. This action, coupled with production slowdowns in some Gulf countries, has roiled global energy markets. The IRGC anticipates oil prices to reach $200 per barrel, despite the release of 400 million barrels from global reserves. The closure of the Strait, through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil transits, and attacks on ships in the area have exacerbated concerns about further disruptions and rising prices.

Iran has escalated attacks on energy infrastructure and transport in the Middle East, setting ablaze two tankers in Iraqi waters. This action is part of a broader campaign to disrupt energy markets, contributing to oil prices reaching $100 a barrel. Conflicting reports have emerged regarding Iran's stance on allowing India-flagged tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil trade. While one Indian source indicated passage would be permitted, Reuters reported an Iranian source denying this. The attacks and uncertainty surrounding tanker passage are impacting global oil markets.

Asia's energy-reliant economies are facing an "existential threat" from a prolonged Iran war, which could lead to sustained disruption to global oil supplies and significantly higher fuel costs. Economists warn that a conflict lasting several weeks could result in persistently higher prices, widening trade deficits, and slower economic growth for countries such as Pakistan, India, Morocco, Thailand, China, the Philippines, and Indonesia. These nations are particularly vulnerable due to their high energy deficits, which exceed 4% of GDP. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route near Iran, is at risk of disruption, affecting global oil supplies. Spot prices for natural gas have more than doubled to three-year highs, reaching over $25 per MMBtu. A prolonged war could exacerbate these challenges and have far-reaching economic consequences for the region.

On day 14 of the US-Israel conflict (March 13, 2026), tensions escalated as Israel launched heavy strikes on Tehran, Iran, following retaliatory attacks by Iranian allies across Gulf states. Iran's new Supreme Leader issued a warning demanding the closure of US bases in the region to halt further attacks. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil transport, is now closed, causing oil prices to surge. Iran claims control of the strait, banning US- and Israel-linked ships. Civilian casualties in Iran are reported to be over 1,300. Iran has also launched attacks on Gulf countries hosting US military assets, targeting oil tankers and facilities.

In his first statement since succeeding his father, Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. Khamenei stated that blocking the Strait, a vital waterway for global oil supplies, "must definitely be used." He also demanded the United States close all its bases in the region. The statement, broadcast on state television on Thursday, follows the death of his father at the start of the US-Israel war against Iran. The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic location through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply passes.

Amid rising tensions over oil shipments, the US military attacked and destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. This action followed reports that Iran had begun laying mines in the strategically important waterway, through which about one-fifth of the world's oil passes. The US military released footage of the attacks shortly after Donald Trump demanded the removal of any Iranian mines in the Strait. Oil shipments have been blocked since US-Israeli strikes on Iran 11 days prior, causing market volatility, further exacerbated by a retracted social media post from the US energy secretary claiming a successful US Navy escort of an oil tanker through the Strait. Iran has threatened to stop any movement of the US fleet and its allies in the region.

According to regional sources, Iran has strategically weaponized the Strait of Hormuz as a deterrent against potential attacks from the US and Israel. The Strait, a vital chokepoint for approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas, has been effectively closed by Iran since a conflict began on February 28, resulting in a 97% traffic decrease. This tactic, reminiscent of the 1980s "Tanker War," leverages Iran's geographical position and control over the Strait to disrupt global energy markets. Iran now possesses advanced weaponry, including missiles and drones, enabling them to threaten shipping across a wider area and quickly disrupt traffic without extensive mining operations. The strategy aims to offset military disadvantages by exploiting vulnerabilities in global energy supply chains.

The article analyzes the implications of a hypothetical war in Iran, arguing it signals a shift in global politics. It suggests a decline in the effectiveness of international law and a rise in unilateral actions by major powers. While legal frameworks remain, powerful nations increasingly prioritize their interests, acting first and justifying later. This contrasts with the Concert of Europe, where major powers shared responsibility for maintaining order. The current situation is characterized by exceptionalism without consensus, where powerful nations assert influence without accepting institutional discipline. The article highlights the potential for instability as the international system moves towards a hierarchy dominated by powerful actors unbound by shared rules.