Oil flows nearly tripled before US-Iran MoU expired, analysis shows

Some 374 million barrels of oil exited the Gulf during the 60-day window covered by the MoU, Kpler data shows.oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz nearly tripled while the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran was in effect, though it remained far below pre-war levels, according to ship tracking data.Some 374 million barrels of oil exited the Gulf during the 60-day window covered by the since-expired MoU, equalling about 6.1 million barrels per day, trade intelligence firm Kpler said in a briefing published on Wednesday.Recommended Stories list of 4 itemslist 1 of 4Trump vows ‘economic warfare’ on countries helping Iranlist 2 of 4At least 6 killed in multiple Russian missile strikes across Ukrainelist 3 of 4Exclusive: Pentagon sends ‘political loyalty’ survey to US allieslist 4 of 4Australian anger as Israel drops World Central Kitchen deaths caseend of listIn the period from April until the MoU was signed on June 17, an average of 2.3 million bpd were exported via the Gulf, Kpler said.While the MoU led to a significant boost in oil flows, volumes only reached about 40 percent of the roughly 15 million barrels that transited the Strait of Hormuz each day in 2025, according to Kpler.More than half of the shipments occurred in the first three weeks of the agreement, and “by the end the flow was thinner, darker and re-accumulating behind the chokepoint”, said Emmanuel Belostrino, head of Global Crude and Geopolitical Market Data at Kpler.The MoU, announced on June 17 following a flurry of diplomatic activity primarily facilitated by Pakistan, expired on Monday without a peace deal in place amid stalled negotiations between Washington and Tehran.The expiration of the MoU, which US and Iranian officials cast as a step towards a permanent end to the war, came as attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continued to cast a shadow over one of the most critical nodes in the global energy supply chain.Five commercial vessels have been attacked in the strait over the past week, according to the UKMTO Operations Centre, including a cargo ship that reported being struck by an unknown projectile off Oman on Tuesday, resulting in the death of one seafarer.