Will tourism slump force Trump to rethink his unilateral approach?

As Hong Kong braces itself for the Lunar New Year tourist surge, and perhaps long-awaited evidence of a return to the tourism heydays of 2017 and 2018, spare a thought for the US and mounting evidence of a “Trump slump” in US tourism this year.While UN Tourism data shows that international tourism was up by 4 per cent globally in 2025 – back to levels not seen since the Covid-19 crash in international travel – the US stood alone worldwide, with at least a 4 per cent fall.US President Donald Trump’s antagonism towards friends and foes alike, imperialist disruption ranging from Greenland and Panama to Iran and Venezuela, and unilateralist tariff strategy that has wreaked havoc in international trade, bear some of the blame for the sharp fall in international interest in travel to the United States.But equally significant has been a muscular anti-immigrant strategy that has made visas more expensive and harder to get, and has seen paramilitary anti-immigration forces using disproportionate force against citizens in cities across the US – notably in Minneapolis.Trump’s injudicious baiting of Canadians, who are among the US’ longest-standing allies and who make millions of short trips across the border into the US every year, has had a particularly catastrophic impact. Canadian land travel to the US fell 30 per cent last year. At the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), CEO Julia Simpson called a spade a spade: “While other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the US government is putting up the ‘closed’ sign.”In May last year, WTTC forecast the US would lose around US$12.5 billion in international visitor spending last year, but more recent estimates are more dire. Erik Hansen at the US Travel Association predicted earlier this month a possible fall of 11 million international visitors in 2025, resulting in a loss of US$50 billion in spending and “hundreds of thousands” of jobs. The US today accounts for around 4.8 per cent of international tourism, compared with 8.4 per cent in 1996.