Khamenei’s death opens uncertain chapter for Iran’s entrenched theocracy

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Following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran faces an uncertain future after decades of his authoritarian rule. The Islamic Republic had prepared for this possibility, but the event is still considered a significant blow, especially after recent U.S. and Israeli strikes. Analysts suggest potential outcomes ranging from managed regime continuity, possibly a "Khamenei-ism without Khamenei," to a military takeover or systemic collapse. The Assembly of Experts is constitutionally responsible for selecting the next supreme leader, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) expected to heavily influence the decision. Even with a new leader, significant political reform is not guaranteed due to the entrenched power of clerical elites and the IRGC, along with the extensive influence of the Office of the Supreme Leader.
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