Spring forecast: Rachel Reeves to insist government has ‘right economic plan’, as Middle East crisis threatens inflation spike – live updates

The Guardian - World NewsEN 7 min read 100% complete by Graeme WeardenMarch 3, 2026 at 08:37 AM

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long article 7 min

Rachel Reeves is set to respond to the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility's Spring Forecast amid concerns that the Middle East crisis could trigger a new energy crisis and spike inflation. The forecast was expected to show the UK economy staying within fiscal targets and inflation decreasing. However, recent attacks in the Middle East have caused surges in oil and gas prices, potentially adding to headline inflation. The Chancellor is expected to maintain that the government has the "right economic plan" despite global uncertainty. The government is not expected to announce major policy changes, as it is committed to only one major fiscal event each year in the autumn.

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Key Player Opposition Context

European 30% ONS 30% Harold Macmillan 40% Investec 40% Saudi Arabia 60% Iran 60% Qatar 60% US-Israel war on Iran 60% Middle East 70% Office for Budget Responsibility 70% United Kingdom ×380% Rachel Reeves ×390%

Keywords

spring forecast 90% inflation 80% energy prices 70% economic plan 70% middle east crisis 70% uk economy 60% oil and gas prices 60% fiscal forecasts 50% cost-of-living crisis 50% rachel reeves 40%

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