US war on Iran isn’t likely to go as planned

Many American wars begin with the assumption that brute force will lead to a swift and decisive victory. While the US military is highly effective at conventional deterrence, it has consistently struggled to defeat adversaries employing asymmetric tactics. In conflicts such as Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and Yemen, Washington repeatedly underestimated its adversaries by assessing their strength based on their ability to fight conventionally.Iran represents the most dangerous iteration of asymmetric warfare: a state that has developed over more than 45 years to survive US power without direct confrontation. US President Donald Trump now risks revealing the same American vulnerabilities as before: reliance on doctrines and technologies that cannot read or adapt to the changing battlespace, which now includes Iran targeting US assets and bases in the region.Take Millennium Challenge 2002, one of the largest pre-Iraq-invasion war game simulations. Here, the US faced an adversary in the Persian Gulf using asymmetric low-tech warfare. US battle formations constituted a naval fleet of 19 ships, including an aircraft carrier, similar to Trump’s armada, which consists of about 20 ships, including two aircraft carriers.Documents released by the US National Security Agency found that within 10 minutes of starting the Millennium Challenge operation, Lieutenant General Paul Van Riper, commander of the “red team”, sank the US aircraft carrier and defeated the “blue team”, representing the US forces. However, the commanders paused the war game, “refloated” the sunken ships and resumed the exercises as if the red team’s victory hadn’t occurred. They changed the scenario by restricting the red team’s ability to conduct asymmetric warfare, forcing them to fight on America’s terms, which led to a predetermined US victory.Van Riper’s strategy involved avoiding the interception of electronic and phone communications by using couriers to carry sensitive messages and lanterns to coordinate with aircraft, thus bypassing radio interception. Additional restrictions banned Van Riper from using chemical weapons against US assets.Now, ballistic missiles and drones serve as chemical weapon substitutes. Iran’s strikes have shattered the illusion of US air defence invincibility, undermining the protection of assets and allies in the Persian Gulf. Washington intentionally downplayed Tehran’s true capabilities and is now paying the price.