Opportunities, perils and pitfalls: how UK parties have responded to war in Iran

Facing one of the most challenging moments of his premiership, Keir Starmer may at least draw comfort from polling showing that the British public broadly support his position on the conflict in Iran.Nearly half (46%) believe the UK military position should be purely defensive, tasked with shooting down drones and defending civilian areas and British military facilities such as an RAF base on Cyprus.The findings – based on a YouGov poll of 6,285 adults in Britain this week – came as the UK government faced criticism from Cyprus for not doing enough to protect the island. There have also been claims from Donald Trump that the UK has failed to support the US, with the US president saying on social media: “We don’t need people that join Wars after we’ve already won”. Meanwhile, former prime minister Tony Blair said that Keir Starmer “should have backed America from the very beginning”.Despite those criticisms, it is Starmer’s rightwing opponents who appear to be walking more of a political tightrope. Tim Bale, a politics professor at Queen Mary University of London and historian of the Conservatives, said: “The Tories and Reform have more problems when it comes to how their leaders are responding in both cases and what their voters want to hear.”1. The ConservativesIn contrast to predecessors who led the Conservatives in opposition in times of war, Kemi Badenoch has gone on the offensive against the government’s position and is expected to try to depict Labour as “unpatriotic”.During prime minister’s questions on Wednesday, she accused Starmer of not taking “offensive action” after attacks on UK bases. However, that position appears to be in line with only 15% of Tory voters, who according to YouGov, think the UK should actively be joining the attack on Iran.Thirty-seven per cent believe the UK military stance should be “purely defensive” while another 37% want it to be “purely retaliatory”. The tradition of Tory caution about war was voiced by veteran MP Edward Leigh in an intervention that contrasted with Badenoch’s criticism of Starmer during prime minister’s questions and which was clearly not lost on her.Bale said Badenoch was “clearly out of touch with some Conservative voters”. He added: “She views herself as being more of a leader than a follower but there can be a limit.”Badenoch’s position was unusual in comparison with past opposition leaders who calibrated or spared criticism of government positions in wartime, Bale said, adding: “You probably have to go back to Suez where you had the opposition, then Labour, eventually taking a contradictory line. Michael Howard was supportive on Iraq though he later regretted it.”2. Reform UKNigel Farage is leading the party whose voters appear to be most evenly split when it comes to views of the war. Nearly a quarter (24%) of Reform voters think the UK should actively be joining the attack on Iran.Farage, who has given his full-throated endorsement of regime change in Iran, has insisted he does not follow public opinion. But he now risks alienating what YouGov identifies as the 28% and 35% of Reform voters who want the UK response to be defensive or retaliatory, reflecting caution and isolationist currents among its supporters.Gawain Towler, a member of Reform’s board, said he did not recognise the YouGov polling on the basis of his engagement with Reform’s base, adding: “They are almost universally supportive of Farage’s position, they think this is different to Iraq and Libya.”There are also risks for Farage from his continued association with Donald Trump when it comes to gaining support with more ambivalent or “Reform curious” voters. The US president was deeply unpopular with the British public even before starting the war.3. LabourOn the basis of polling this week, Starmer is broadly in line not just with where the country is but also where his party’s voter base is. “The shadow of Iraq has played an enormous part when it comes to the views of Labour voters and broadly speaking he is where they are at,” said Bale.“While he is also where the country is at, he is reflecting the ambivalence of most people, though this is not going to rescue him from his difficulties.”Some 59% of Labour voters wanted the UK position to be defensive, according to YouGov polls. While 32% of voters thought Starmer was handling the relationship with Trump well, that rose to 53% among Labour voters.It is a view reiterated by Sadiq Khan on Saturday. “Keir Starmer is right to resist pressure from US president Donald Trump to join strikes on Iran,” the London mayor said on X. “This is a war of choice – one that is not only causing needless killing and suffering abroad, but could lead to huge economic shock at home.”4. Liberal Democrats and GreensBoth parties have benefited in the past from opposition to UK involvement in wars, with Charles Kennedy’s leadership during the Iraq war a notable Liberal Democrat moment.This week the polling from YouGov found that 59% of Green party voters and 61% of Lib Dems supported the UK stance being purely defensive. However, these are 2024 general election voters, while the Greens have since taken a left-turn and are picking up support that might otherwise have turned to Jeremy Corbyn’s troubled Your Party, a process which could be accelerated by the conflict.“Since 2024 our voter base has perhaps tripled with most coming from the left of Labour so anti-war sentiment likely to be far higher than this now,” claimed one Green source.In terms of political fallout, one future scenario may involve Labour linking feelings of insecurity on the part of the general public with its strategy of targeting the stated desire of the Green leader, Zack Polanski, to leave an “unreformed” Nato alliance.