One month of war on Iran cost Arab countries up to $194bn: UNDP

Even if conflict is ‘short but intense’, countries like Sudan, Yemen and Lebanon will see significant increases in poverty rates.The US-Israel war on Iran and its ripple effect throughout the Middle East have had a devastating impact on Arab countries, with millions expected to slide into poverty, according to the United Nations.A UN Development Programme (UNDP) report published on Tuesday said that gross domestic product (GDP) in the region was estimated to decline by approximately 3.7 to 6 percent after a month of war, equivalent to a contraction of $120bn to $194bn.Recommended Stories list of 3 itemslist 1 of 3Iran war wipes $120bn off Dubai, Abu Dhabi stock marketslist 2 of 3US defence secretary says next few days in Iran war will be ‘decisive’list 3 of 3Where to invest during Iran war? Ask – or don’t – Mohammad Bagher Ghalibafend of listAbdallah Al Dardari, UN assistant secretary-general and director of the UNDP Regional Bureau for Arab States, said that 3.7 million jobs will be lost and about four million more people in the region could fall below the poverty line, noting that the war had highlighted the “fragility in the Arab economy”.The report was based on projections of “a short but intense conflict lasting for four weeks”, signalling that the impact of the war, which has seen Iran attacking Gulf energy infrastructure and squeezing oil and gas exports through the Strait of Hormuz, will likely be even higher if it drags on longer.Issued as tight oil supplies pushed Brent crude futures up 4.7 percent to more than $118 per barrel, the report said, “risks in strategic maritime corridors” had “knock‐on effects on inflation, trade flows, and global supply chains” that could undermine livelihoods in the Middle East’s “interconnected economies”.It added that increases in poverty rates were “concentrated in the Levant and fragile countries (Sudan and Yemen), where baseline vulnerability is highest and shocks translate more strongly into welfare losses”.