Newly created Polymarket accounts win big on well-timed Iran ceasefire bets

The Guardian - World News Economic ImpactNews ReportEN 3 min read 100% complete by Associated PressApril 9, 2026 at 02:11 AM

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‘God does not bless any conflict’: pope issues new rebuke over Iran war

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medium article 3 min

New accounts on the prediction market Polymarket profited significantly from well-timed bets on a US-Iran ceasefire on Tuesday. These new users placed substantial "yes" bets shortly before Donald Trump announced the ceasefire, despite his earlier escalating rhetoric and lack of clear signals of a deal. Analysis of blockchain data revealed at least 50 newly created wallets made these profitable bets, with some earning hundreds of thousands of dollars. One user, for example, invested $72,000 and cashed out for $200,000 in profit. While some users received payouts, Polymarket has labeled the ceasefire contract as "disputed" due to ongoing restrictions and attacks, potentially delaying payouts for others. The identity of the individuals behind these new wallets remains unknown, as Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets.

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Key Claims (5)

AI-Extracted

Trump issued a warning on social media that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran did not meet his demand.

quote — Donald Trump100% confidence

Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets.

factual100% confidence

Polymarket has labeled the Iran-US ceasefire contract as 'disputed'.

factual100% confidence

One wallet created on Tuesday placed roughly $72,000 in bets and cashed out for a $200,000 profit.

statistic100% confidence

New Polymarket accounts made well-timed bets on a US-Iran ceasefire, resulting in large profits.

factual90% confidence

Claims are automatically extracted and should be independently verified. Attribution indicates the stated source of the claim.

Key Entities & Roles

Key Player Opposition Context

Pakistan 40% Truth Social 40% Dune 40% Strait of Hormuz ×260% United States 70% Iran ×570% Donald Trump ×480% Polymarket ×790%

Keywords

polymarket 100% prediction market 90% ceasefire bets 80% well-timed bets 70% iran 70% donald trump 60% blockchain data 60% us 60% smart contract wallets 50% profits 50%