Can historic Israel-Lebanon talks lead to ceasefire?

EXPLAINERUS President Donald Trump says Israel and Lebanon leaders would speak for the first time in decades on Thursday.Wael and Ali Sabbagh, whose mother Afaf Sidaoui and brother Hassan were killed in an Israeli strike on an apartment building on April 8, stand at the strike site in Tallet el-Khayyat in Beirut, Lebanon, April 15, 2026 [Jihed Abidellaoui/Reuters]Published On 16 Apr 2026United States President Donald Trump has announced that leaders of Israel and Lebanon will speak to each other for the first time in 34 years on Thursday, raising cautious hopes for a diplomatic solution to the fighting that has continued for more than six weeks.The announcement comes as Israel’s military operations in Lebanon and its invasion of the country’s south intensify. More than 2,000 people have been killed and more than one million displaced across Lebanon so far.Recommended Stories list of 3 itemslist 1 of 3Israel’s military kills four Lebanese paramedics in consecutive strikeslist 2 of 3Israel bombs homes in southern Lebanonlist 3 of 3Israeli air attack destroys buildings around south Lebanon hospitalend of listIsrael’s minister for innovation, science and technology, Gila Gamliel, said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will speak with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun.Lebanon has yet to comment but, on Thursday, Iran’s speaker of parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf told his Lebanese counterpart, Nabih Berri, in a phone conversation that a ceasefire in Lebanon is vital, according to a statement posted on Telegram.“For us, a ceasefire in Lebanon is just as important as a ceasefire in Iran,” he said.Ghalibaf led the Iranian delegation at the first round of US-Iran talks in Pakistan last week, which ended without a deal.The prospective talks between Israel and Lebanon follow a rare direct engagement between the two countries’ US ambassadors in Washington on Tuesday – also their first such direct contact in decades.Although that meeting concluded with no resolution, Trump’s comments suggest the White House is pushing for de-escalation in the region, as a two-week Pakistan-brokered ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Hezbollah-ally Iran is currently in place. The two sides disagree over whether the ceasefire extends to fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.Despite that, “the Trump administration is keen as mustard to get a deal with Iran”, Chris Doyle, director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding (CAABU), told Al Jazeera.“Given the impact on the global economy, given the fact that it has not been able to achieve the war aims in a short time, the Trump administration wants that exit. And it’s becoming clearer that they do not want Israel to be in the way of their escape.”Nevertheless, with both sides maintaining starkly different objectives, and the Lebanon front closely tied to broader negotiations involving Iran, it remains unclear whether the talks Trump claims will take place can produce tangible results.Here is what we know:What do we know about the talks?Trump has announced that the leaders of Israel and Lebanon will speak with each other for the first time in more than three decades on Thursday.“Trying to get a little breathing room between Israel and Lebanon,” Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform. “It has been a long time since the two leaders have spoken, like 34 years. It will happen tomorrow. Nice!” The US president did not specify which leaders would be involved in the talks.Al Jazeera’s Zeina Khodr, reporting from Lebanon, said Trump’s post was “very controversial”.“When he talks about giving Lebanon and Israel some ‘breathing space’, it could be interpreted as a ceasefire,” she reported.“But I just spoke to an official source in Lebanon who told me that there is no information – those were the words used – about a possible phone conversation between Lebanese and Israeli leaders. Or a possible second meeting between Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors in Washington.”Why did the fighting begin?Israel’s attacks on Lebanon intensified as tensions surged following the outbreak of the US-Israel war on Iran on February 28.Hezbollah entered the war by launching rockets, missiles and drones towards a missile defence site near Haifa in northern Israel on March 2, in response to the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the first strikes on Tehran. Up until then, the Iran-backed, Lebanese-armed group had not attacked Israel since a November 2024 ceasefire, despite near-daily breaches of the deal by Israel.Israel responded immediately with air raids on the suburbs of Beirut where it claimed Hezbollah strongholds are located. Since then, Israel has carried out extensive air attacks across Lebanon and launched a ground invasion into the south. Israeli forces have pushed further into southern areas, targeting Hezbollah and attempting to establish a buffer zone along the border.Last month, Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz said his country would install a “security zone” in southern Lebanon stretching to the Litani River, roughly 30km (20 miles) north of the Israeli border. In pursuit of this goal, Israel has destroyed multiple bridges across the river, a strategy that has been widely condemned.Rights groups have warned that Israel appears to be trying to isolate the region from the rest of the country.The scale of the Israeli offensive has been significant, killing more than 2,000 people across Lebanon and injuring thousands more, with roughly 1.2 million displaced. Israeli attacks have hit multiple areas, including densely populated neighbourhoods in the capital, Beirut.Israeli army vehicles and bulldozers operate in southern Lebanon [Ariel Schalit/AP Photo]What are the prospects for a ceasefire?As things stand, the chances of a truce look slim, observers say.Analyst Nadim Houry said even if a phone call were to take place between Israel’s Netanyahu and his Lebanese counterpart, it would be “mostly symbolic rather than substantive”.“Lebanon wants a ceasefire as a priority to enter into negotiations whose aim would be to liberate lands currently occupied by Israel,” Houry, executive director of the Arab Reform Initiative, told Al Jazeera.“Israel is focused on fighting Hezbollah and is seeking to create a buffer zone in Lebanon (a new occupation zone). In particular, Israel seems keen to occupy the town of Bint Jbeil before any ceasefire announcement,” he noted, adding that it would be “mostly for symbolic reasons that Netanyahu wants to sell internally in Israel”.The town of Bint Jbeil has been particularly hard hit by the Israeli army in southern Lebanon, with Netanyahu claiming this week that Israeli forces were about to “overwhelm” the area.While the meeting between the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors on Tuesday was seen by some as a breakthrough, it resulted in no tangible plan for reaching a ceasefire.Yechiel Leiter, Israel’s ambassador to the US and a prominent settlement advocate, portrayed the meeting in highly positive terms, describing it as “a wonderful exchange” among parties “united in liberating Lebanon” from Hezbollah. By contrast, Lebanon’s envoy, Nada Hamadeh Moawad, struck a more restrained tone. She characterised the talks as “constructive” but stressed she had used the opportunity to push for a ceasefire.Before the meeting, Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem called for the talks to be cancelled, labelling them “futile”.Further dimming prospects for de-escalation, Netanyahu announced on Wednesday that he had instructed the Israeli army to widen its offensive in southern Lebanon, pushing operations further east.Netanyahu said Israel was continuing diplomatic contacts with the Lebanese government in parallel with its military campaign against Hezbollah, framing both tracks as part of an effort to disarm the group and secure what he described as “sustainable peace” with Israel’s northern neighbour.Why is a ceasefire so important?A key demand from Iran in its dialogue with the US is that Israel end its offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Tehran said the ceasefire agreed last week should include the war in Lebanon, but the US and Israel have rejected that. Trump has called Israel’s assaults on its neighbour “a separate skirmish”, even though Hezbollah entered the war in defence of Iran.