Trump threatens ‘a big hit’ if Tehran does not make deal soon

Donald Trump has again threatened Iran, saying the US may launch new attacks if Tehran continues to refuse the significant concessions he wants before a deal can be struck to end the Middle East war.The US president said he had called off a fresh wave of strikes, which would have broken the ceasefire in place since early last month. “I was an hour away from making the decision to go today,” Trump said on Tuesday.The decision apparently followed a further peace proposal submitted by Tehran via Pakistan, which has mediated, and may have been motivated by the reluctance of allies, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, to see hostilities resume.Trump said Iran’s leaders were “begging” to make a deal, but a new US attack would deliver “a big hit” in the coming days if one was not reached.“Well, I mean, I’m saying two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday, something, maybe early next week, a limited period of time, because we can’t let them have a new nuclear weapon,” he said.Trump has made repeated threats in recent weeks but the continuing failure to follow through has increased the sense that the conflict is deadlocked.Analysts say both sides want to avoid a new round of hostilities but neither are willing to pay the political price of the concessions necessary to secure a peace agreement.“Trumps’ threats have lost all credibility … Both sides are too far apart in terms of what they are willing to accept or work on but neither side want to go back to war. So they are just stuck … and neither side really knows how to get out of this,” said Neil Quilliam of London’s Chatham House.Iran continues to block most shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which carried about a fifth of the world’s supply of oil and liquid gas before the conflict, while the US has imposed its own naval blockade on Iranian ports.Iranian officials have remained defiant in the face of Trump’s new threats, describing US demands as “excessive”.Since the ceasefire began on 8 April, Tehran and Washington have held only a single round of talks: an unsuccessful 21-hour session in Islamabad. Pakistani mediators have sought to bridge the big gaps between the two sides, passing successive proposals from one to the other, but have complained that both are “changing their goalposts”.According to Iran’s ISNA news agency, Mohammed Akraminia, a military spokesperson, reiterated on Tuesday that Tehran would continue to manage the strait, adding that the US needed to “respect the Iranian nation and observe the legitimate rights of the Islamic republic”.On Monday, Iran announced the formation of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to manage traffic through the waterway, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has threatened to impose permits on the internet fibre optic cables passing through the strait.Akraminia said on Tuesday that in the event of new attacks Iran would “open new fronts” against the US – which has gathered a vast array of military firepower in the region – and said Tehran had used the ceasefire “to strengthen its combat capabilities”.Experts say it is likely that Iran would also redouble efforts to retaliate against Israel and nearby Gulf states, probably targeting vulnerable oil and other civilian infrastructure.Iranian state media said Tehran’s latest peace proposal involved ending hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, the withdrawal of US forces from areas close to Iran, and reparations for destruction caused by US-Israeli attacks.Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, said Tehran also wanted sanctions lifted, frozen funds released, and an end to the US marine blockade, according to IRNA, the state news agency.The terms as described in the Iranian reports appeared little changed from its previous offer, which Trump rejected last week as “garbage”.The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the threat of further conflict in the region has sent oil prices soaring, increasing inflation worldwide and threatening a global recession. A new round of fighting could send prices even higher and stock markets tumbling.White House officials are concerned that the conflict, which has little support among US voters, may derail Republican chances of keeping control of Congress at a time when worries about the cost of living are acute.Iran faces a deepening economic crisis and potential damage to its oil infrastructure. Inflation is soaring and some officials fear an increase in popular discontent with the regime.Quilliam said: “On Iran, there is no real data so it’s very hard to guesstimate, but we know that the regime is intact and probably more hardline than it has ever been … So no matter the pain they are suffering they are not suddenly going to say” ‘OK, we have to get to the negotiating table.’”Rights groups have said that since the start of the war, Iran has executed 26 men seen as political prisoners – 14 charged over January protests, one over 2022 demonstrations, and 11 accused of links to banned opposition groups.The Human Rights Activists news agency (Hrana), a US- and Netherlands-based monitoring group, has documented at least 4,023 arrests in Iran between 28 February, when the war started, and 9 May. Hrana has also documented at least 3,636 war fatalities, including 1,701 civilians, from US-Israeli attacks on Iran.On Tuesday, a top commander of US forces in the Middle East avoided taking responsibility for an attack on a school in Minab, southern Iran, on the first day of the war, 28 February, that killed 155 people, saying a “complex” investigation continued.Adm Brad Cooper, the commander of US Central Command, told a congressional oversight panel that “the school itself is located on an active IRGC cruise missile base”, making the investigation “more complex than the average strike”.According to Iranian state media, the attack killed 73 boys, 47 girls, 26 teachers, seven parents, a school bus driver, and another adult.