I.M.F. Raises Forecast for Global Growth as Tariff Drag Fades

New York Times - WorldCenter-LeftEN 4 min read 100% complete by Alan RappeportJanuary 19, 2026 at 10:30 AM

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long article 4 min

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to 3.3%, citing surging investment in artificial intelligence and technology offsetting rising protectionism. This projection, released in January 2026, is a 0.2 percentage point increase from the IMF's October prediction, though growth is expected to slow slightly in 2027. The IMF attributes the improved outlook to stronger growth projections in the United States and China, as well as more accommodating financial conditions worldwide. Global inflation is expected to ease to 3.8% this year. The IMF also noted that the impact of tariffs enacted in 2025 has been less severe than initially anticipated due to exemptions and delays.

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global growth 90% artificial intelligence 80% investment 70% protectionism 70% global economy 60% tariffs 60% i.m.f. 60% trade 50% inflation 40% economic outlook 40%