EXPLAINERTit-for-tat strikes have halted in the
Middle East amid reports of depleted US weapons stocks.President
Donald Trump salutes as members of the military carry the transfer case of US personnel, who were killed during an attack at
Muwaffaq Salti airbase in
Jordan, during a dignified transfer of his remains at
Dover airbase in Delaware, US, July 22, 2026 [Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters]Published On 27 Jul 2026The
United States paused strikes on
Iran on Friday after nearly two weeks of bombardments, including in the
Strait of Hormuz, since the
Islamabad-brokered ceasefire unravelled.Since then, Washington has not carried out attacks targeting
Iran, bringing Tehran’s retaliatory attacks on US military assets and infrastructure in countries in the region to a halt.Although US President
Donald Trump has denied it, media reports there said Washington may be running low on air defence interceptors, while pressure is mounting on both sides to give diplomacy another chance amid heightened stakes.Here’s what we know about why the US has halted its attacks and what is happening in diplomatic channels.Iranians walk past a billboard depicting Trump in a coffin alongside the slogan ‘We Kill Trump’ in Tehran,
Iran [File: Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA]What is the situation now?Despite the sudden lull in the exchange of strikes, the
Strait of Hormuz – the critical waterway that has emerged as one of the biggest flashpoints in this war – remains closed.
Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB reported that six ships had attempted to pass through an “illegal and unsafe” route in the south of the
Strait of Hormuz in the early hours of Monday after turning off their navigation and positioning systems.One vessel suffered an unspecified accident, IRIB said, while the others returned to the Gulf under “decisive Iranian management”. It quoted an official who blamed the US military for “provoking” the ships to sail on the unauthorised route.However, retaliatory attacks by
Iran on US military assets and infrastructure in
Bahrain,
Kuwait and
Jordan have ceased. “Our strategy has essentially been retaliatory. We have also halted our retaliatory operations,” said Iranian army spokesman
Mohammad Akraminia.Global oil prices dropped by about 4 percent after the US and
Iran halted exchanging missiles, signalling a potential shift towards diplomacy.On Saturday, the US military said its naval blockade of Iranian ports, including those in the
Strait of Hormuz, “remains in full effect”, but did not specify why Washington had halted attacks on
Iran after 13 nights of escalating strikes.A statue of Iranian soldiers in the
Strait of Hormuz near Bandar Abbas,
Iran, May 22, 2026 [Majid Asgaripour/WANA via Reuters]What tensions remain?The biggest flashpoint and the issue which directly caused the resumption of strikes two weeks ago is the
Strait of Hormuz, which
Iran effectively closed to international shipping shortly after the US and Israel began attacks on Tehran on February 28.
Iran has been discussing proposals with Oman, whose territorial waters also extend into the strait, to reopen the
Strait of Hormuz under a shared management protocol. However, it is not clear if that would be acceptable to Trump, or the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.Following the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the US and
Iran on June 17, the strait was supposed to be open and free to shipping traffic for a minimum of 60 days while peace talks were under way. However, the two sides disagreed on who had ultimate control over shipping routes and which path ships should take. That resulted in Iranian attacks on ships taking the “wrong” routes and, ultimately, Trump’s resumption of strikes on
Iran.Tensions over shipping in Hormuz have now also spilled over into other vital waterways.Shipping traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb strait at the entrance to the Red Sea on the other side of Saudi Arabia has also slowed following Houthi attacks on ships along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and the group’s announcement of a naval blockade against the largest GCC member, according to shipping data from analytics platform Kpler.Meanwhile, a Ukrainian strike on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea pushed tensions further, killing at least one Iranian sailor. Tehran summoned Ukraine’s diplomats and accused Kyiv of carrying out a “hostile and criminal” act.Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said long-range missiles had targeted vessels carrying military cargo linked to
Iran, as he accused Russia of aiding
Iran’s military campaign against the US.Another major flashpoint is Lebanon, where Israel has occupied about one-fifth of the country since early March. Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has insisted that peace between Tehran and Washington will only be possible if Israel ceases its attacks on Lebanon, where it claims to be targeting strongholds of the
Iran-backed Lebanese group, Hezbollah.
Iran “has designated the preservation of Lebanon’s territorial integrity, and the absolute, unconditional termination of the Zionist regime’s aggression as the primary condition for any agreement to end the imposed war against the aggressive US”, he wrote in a post on X.Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif meets
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, with US officials in the background, before the start of a quadrilateral meeting between the US,
Iran, Pakistan and Qatar in Switzerland, June 21, 2026 [Pool/Reuters]Why has the US ceased strikes now?US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz told broadcaster NBC News that a pause in strikes would aid talks between the two countries. “What the president is doing right now, as we’ve seen all along, is giving some talks some space,” he said. “Talks are ongoing.”Iranian-American economist Nader Habibi told Al Jazeera that the global economy had come under severe pressure when the US and
Iran returned to fighting two weeks ago, and crude prices jumped by more than 20 percent to above $100 per barrel.This is a main reason why the US has halted strikes, he postulated.“There was pressure on the Trump administration from all sides, both domestic and international partners, to find a solution,” Habibi told Al Jazeera. “All the recent US strikes did not produce enough pressure to change
Iran’s policy and force
Iran to accept its demand.”He said another issue is that the cost of
Iran’s strikes on Gulf countries “was very high, and the US risked alienating its allies due to the damage to their economies because those strikes continued”.Likewise, the US naval blockade and sanctions have put Tehran’s economy under severe pressure, Habibi said, adding that the country “witnessed long lines for gasoline and diesel fuel, sometimes reaching up to a kilometre”. It is coupled with the infrastructure damage in
Iran from the US strikes, including bridges and railways.Therefore, he said, “both sides have an incentive because of the severe cost and the inability of one side to force the other side to give up”.Ali Vaez, the International Crisis Group’s
Iran project director, told Al Jazeera: “Two weeks of fighting have reminded both Washington and Tehran that escalation raises the costs without resolving the conflict. The hope is that
Iran and Oman can reach a formula for reopening the strait that all other stakeholders would find acceptable.”“The gap can be bridged only by returning to the MoU and resolving its ambiguities,” he added.Qatar, Egypt and Pakistan have been working with other regional mediators to reach a new ceasefire between the US and
Iran, and have most recently submitted a proposal for a 10-day pause in the fighting.