BTC Predictions
Machine learning predictions for Bitcoin price direction (2-week horizon).
BTC model retired — 23 August 2026
These predictions are no longer generated. Over 92 validated forecasts the model scored AUC 0.476 (95% CI 0.34–0.61) — indistinguishable from chance — and at one prediction per day on a 14-day horizon it would take roughly 20 years to accumulate enough independent observations to prove otherwise. The history below is kept as the record.
See BTC_MODEL_ASSESSMENT.md for the full analysis.
Current BTC: $77,562-0.10%
| Date | Direction | P(Up 2w) | Confidence | Top Features | Expires |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22 | BEARISH | 22.5% | 55% | atr_14, days_since_halving, days_to_tax_deadline | Sep 5 |
| Aug 21 | BEARISH | 27.2% | 46% | atr_14, days_since_halving, rsi_14 | Sep 4 |
| Aug 20 | BEARISH | 27.2% | 46% | days_since_halving, atr_14, days_to_tax_deadline | Sep 3 |
| Aug 19 | BEARISH | 27.6% | 45% | days_since_halving, atr_14, days_to_tax_deadline | Sep 2 |
| Aug 18 | BEARISH | 26.3% | 47% | days_since_halving, atr_14, days_to_tax_deadline | Sep 1 |
| Aug 17 | BEARISH | 31.1% | 38% | days_since_halving, atr_14, days_to_tax_deadline | Aug 31 |
| Aug 16 | BEARISH | 31.8% | 36% | days_since_halving, atr_14, days_to_tax_deadline | Aug 30 |
| Aug 15 | BEARISH | 31.9% | 36% | days_since_halving, atr_14, days_to_tax_deadline | Aug 29 |
| Aug 14 | BEARISH | 28.7% | 43% | days_since_halving, atr_14, days_to_tax_deadline | Aug 28 |
| Aug 13 | BEARISH | 27.9% | 44% | days_since_halving, atr_14, days_to_tax_deadline | Aug 27 |
| Aug 12 | BEARISH | 28.4% | 43% | days_since_halving, atr_14, days_to_tax_deadline | Aug 26 |
| Aug 11 | BEARISH | 27.5% | 45% | days_since_halving, atr_14, days_to_tax_deadline | Aug 25 |
| Aug 10 | BEARISH | 26.3% | 47% | days_since_halving, atr_14, days_to_tax_deadline | Aug 24 |
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