Qatar warns Iran war could halt Gulf energy exports ‘within weeks’

Qatar's Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi has warned that a prolonged war with Iran could halt Gulf energy exports within weeks, affecting global economies. The warning comes as Qatar halted liquefied natural gas (LNG) production in response to Iranian missile and drone attacks on the country and its neighbors. LNG production from Qatar accounts for about 20% of global supply and plays a key role in balancing Asian and European markets' demand. Al-Kaabi stated that if the war continues, GDP growth worldwide will be impacted, leading to higher energy prices, shortages, and chain reactions among factories. He also expects all Gulf exporters to call force majeure, freeing them from liability or obligations due to extraordinary events. The minister estimated it would take Qatar weeks to months to return to normal deliveries even if the war ended immediately.

A disruption to Qatar's LNG output, reportedly due to Iranian drone strikes and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has triggered a surge in Asian gas prices to a three-year high. Qatar, a major LNG exporter, halted production at its Ras Laffan plant on Monday, prompting Asian buyers to seek replacement cargoes and some industries to reduce consumption. The incident highlights Asia's vulnerability due to its heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels, particularly from the Middle East. Analysts suggest this disruption underscores the need for the region to accelerate its transition to renewable energy sources. The rising spot LNG prices in Asia reached approximately US$23.80 per million British thermal units on Friday.

Escalating conflict involving Iran and the US/Israeli attacks is disrupting oil and gas supplies in the Middle East, driving up global prices. Iran has launched strikes against oil facilities and shipping in the region, particularly impacting the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for approximately 20% of the world's oil supply. Shipping traffic through the strait has significantly decreased due to safety concerns, with several tankers damaged and at least one fatality reported. Consequently, the price of oil initially surged by over 10%, and experts predict further increases if the conflict continues, potentially reaching $100 per barrel.