Is Pakistan building ICBMs? Non-proliferation experts dispute US warning

A US intelligence assessment, presented by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, warned that Pakistan is researching and developing missile systems, including potential ICBMs, capable of striking the US homeland. This assessment places Pakistan among a group of countries prioritizing advanced missiles as threats. However, nuclear non-proliferation experts dispute this claim, suggesting Pakistan's defense program is focused on regional deterrence against India. Pakistan's foreign ministry spokesman Tahir Andrabi rejected the US claims, asserting that their strategic capabilities are defensive and aimed at maintaining regional stability. He stated that Pakistan's missile program remains below intercontinental range and is based on a doctrine of credible minimum deterrence against India.

In March 2026, US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard presented the Annual Threat Assessment to the Senate Intelligence Committee, identifying Pakistan, along with Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, as countries developing missile technology that could eventually reach the US. The assessment highlighted Pakistan's development of sophisticated missile technology capable of striking targets beyond South Asia, potentially including ICBMs that could threaten the US. The report also noted Pakistan's ongoing research and development of delivery systems for weapons of mass destruction. While the US raises concerns, analysts suggest Pakistan's missile program is primarily focused on India, which possesses longer-range missiles. The report also flagged the enduring security challenges in South Asia, emphasizing the risk of nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan.