‘Turbulent and dangerous’: How shipping is the new global battleground

Global shipping is becoming increasingly turbulent and dangerous as geopolitical conflicts rewrite maritime navigation rules. Key waterways like the Strait of Hormuz, Panama Canal, South China Sea, and Black Sea are now battlegrounds. Recent events, such as Iran's restrictions and the US naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, highlight this shift. Experts note that actions by major powers are threatening the established international maritime order, which has facilitated global trade for decades. This politicization of shipping routes raises concerns for insurers and importers worldwide, potentially increasing costs and risks.

A prolonged conflict between the US and Iran, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz, poses a significant threat to vital undersea internet cables in the Middle East. Iranian state media has highlighted the strait's dual role as a critical route for oil shipments and internet communications. Damage to these cables could result in a "digital catastrophe" and substantial financial losses for southern Persian Gulf nations, which depend on them for over 90% of their connectivity. This vulnerability has emerged as a quiet concern amidst the ongoing focus on oil supply disruptions.

Global famine fears are escalating due to the ongoing crisis at the Strait of Hormuz, which analysts warn could lead to an eight-year disruption similar to the Suez Canal closure of 1967-1975. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and Iran's effective closure of the Strait have strained fragile food supply chains and driven up prices. While a diplomatic resolution could reopen the Strait within weeks, it would still take months for supply chains to normalize. In the worst-case scenario, the Strait could remain closed for an extended period, significantly impacting global trade and food security, particularly due to disruptions in fertilizer transport.

Aid organizations are calling for a humanitarian corridor through the Strait of Hormuz due to disruptions caused by the conflict between the US and Iran. This conflict has led to volatile oil prices, significantly increasing transportation costs and hindering the delivery of vital food and medical aid to vulnerable populations. For instance, the International Rescue Committee has been unable to access $130,000 worth of supplies in Dubai needed for 20,000 people in Sudan. The increased cost of fuel is also forcing aid agencies to limit operations, such as reducing generator use in clinics in Nigeria and Ethiopia. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping channel, has experienced blockades and closures since February, impacting global supply chains for oil, food, fertilizer, and medicine, and driving up prices.

Iran's navy issued a warning to ships seeking to cross the Strait of Hormuz without permission, threatening to target and destroy unauthorized vessels. This action follows a five-week disruption that choked off the vital shipping lane, which carries a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas. A ceasefire agreement was reached on Tuesday evening, guaranteeing "safe passage," but few vessels have crossed since. The disruption has impacted the global economy, raising energy prices and highlighting the reliance on the Strait for transporting energy and chemicals. While oil prices have fallen due to the ceasefire, shipping analysts anticipate only a slow resumption of crossings, pending further details and reassurances regarding transit procedures.

A US-Israeli ceasefire with Iran offers potential hope for resolving the energy crisis stemming from Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz, though the deal's stability is uncertain. Since the conflict began 40 days ago, approximately 2,000 vessels, including oil tankers and cargo ships, have been stranded in the Gulf. While a few ships have trickled through recently, a return to the pre-crisis average of 140 daily transits is not guaranteed. Shipowners are hesitant due to safety concerns and Iran's intention to maintain military management of the strait, requiring extensive information sharing and approval for passage of "non-hostile vessels." The resumption of normal shipping and oil flows hinges on the durability of the ceasefire and assurances of safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Following a ceasefire in April 2026 between the US, Israel, and Iran, experts predict it will take months for energy prices to normalize. Iran's actions, including blocking the Strait of Hormuz (a crucial passage for global oil and gas exports) and attacking Gulf energy infrastructure, caused significant disruptions. This led to soaring prices for energy and related products, impacting consumers worldwide, especially in Asia and Africa. The Strait of Hormuz, which previously saw 120-140 ships daily, now has drastically reduced traffic. Analysts emphasize that a consistent and predictable flow of cargo through the strait is necessary for market stabilization, but the timeline for achieving this remains uncertain.

The UN's International Maritime Organization warned that imposing tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz would set a "dangerous precedent." This statement follows President Trump's suggestion of a potential US-Iranian joint toll system for ships traversing the waterway. The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran, Oman, and the UAE, is a critical global shipping lane for oil and liquefied natural gas. The UN agency emphasized that no international agreement allows tolls for transiting international straits. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis also stated that such a toll imposed by Iran would be "completely unacceptable."

Following a US-Israeli war on Iran that began in February 2026, Iran retaliated by halting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global oil and LNG transport. A ceasefire brokered by Pakistan led to Iran issuing official terms for controlling the Strait going forward. As part of the truce, Iran is now taxing ships passing through the Strait, granting safe passage only to friendly nations or those paying tolls, some in Chinese yuan. The US has not acknowledged the terms, but analysts expect pushback from Washington and other countries. Talks are scheduled to begin in Islamabad to negotiate a permanent end to hostilities.

Iran's recent threat to impose tolls on ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz is raising international concerns, particularly in Asia. The Strait is a vital chokepoint for global oil supplies, with nearly a fifth of the world's oil passing through it. Asia's heavy reliance on Middle Eastern energy makes it especially vulnerable to disruptions in the waterway. Analysts fear that Iran's actions could set a precedent for politically motivated control of strategic shipping lanes, potentially destabilizing maritime law and global trade. The situation highlights the vulnerability of countries dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for energy.

Following a ceasefire announced by U.S. President Donald Trump in April 2026, and Iran's agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic with coordination, the article argues for a regional agreement governing the waterway. The closure of the strait highlighted the need for a long-term, legally sound solution for this critical passage. The article emphasizes that Iran and its Arab neighbors have the greatest interest in such a solution, as they rely on the strait for trade. Existing international legal frameworks, such as the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and other treaties, provide a foundation for establishing fair maritime borders and ensuring unimpeded transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz.