Why Yemen’s long ‘no war, no peace’ deadlock may be ending

Yemen's fragile peace is collapsing as both the internationally recognized government and Houthi rebels mobilize fighters. Tensions escalated on July 3 with the first flight from Tehran to Houthi-controlled Sanaa in over a decade, followed by clashes in Hodeidah governorate. The Yemeni government then bombed Sanaa airport's runway on Monday after an attempted Tehran flight, prompting Houthi ballistic missile fire at Saudi Arabia. Both sides have declared the de-escalation phase over. This renewed fighting, occurring amidst regional tensions between Iran and the US, could reignite Yemen's decade-long conflict with significant implications for regional security and maritime traffic. The Houthis appear to be preparing for a new phase of war, potentially to reconstruct a local narrative and address internal economic pressures.

A leading Houthi official, Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, has threatened a "siege" on Saudi Arabia in response to an attack on Sanaa International Airport. The Houthis blamed Saudi Arabia for the Monday attack, though Yemen's internationally recognized government claimed responsibility, stating it was to prevent an Iranian plane from landing. Al-Bukhaiti stated that Yemen has the right to strike Saudi airports and impose a siege in retaliation for the perceived Saudi action. A Houthi spokesperson declared that Monday's strikes ended the "de-escalation phase" of the Yemen war, potentially ending four years of relative calm. The attacks targeted the airport's runway as an Iranian plane carrying a Houthi delegation from Tehran was approaching.

Yemen's Houthi rebels launched missiles at Abha airport in Saudi Arabia on Monday, stating it was retaliation for air strikes on Sanaa's airport that they attributed to the Saudi-led coalition. The coalition reported its air defenses intercepted the missiles with no reported casualties. The Houthis, who control northwestern Yemen and are supported by Iran, accused Saudi Arabia of "blatant aggression" after the strikes on Sanaa's airport, which the Yemeni government claimed responsibility for, stating it aimed to prevent an Iranian plane from landing. This incident marks a significant escalation in the conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, which has devastated Yemen and created a severe humanitarian crisis.

Recent military escalation in Yemen has broken a four-year truce, with the Yemeni government bombing Sanaa International Airport and Houthi rebels retaliating with missiles towards Saudi Arabia. Analysts warn this could spill over into the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a vital global energy artery. The strait, connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, sees 12% of global trade and approximately 4 million barrels of oil daily. If the Bab al-Mandeb were blocked, alongside the Strait of Hormuz which Iran has effectively closed, around 25% of the world's oil and gas supply would be disrupted, forcing lengthy reroutes. This situation is seen as a strategic move by Iran and its allies to counter US naval blockades.