Will the US benefit from the oil crisis sparked by the war on Iran?

As of March 5, 2026, a war in Iran has sparked a global oil and gas crisis, potentially benefiting the United States and other Western exporters. The crisis stems from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for oil and LNG, and attacks on energy infrastructure in Gulf countries. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared the Strait "closed" after several tankers were damaged, causing oil and gas prices to surge. Approximately 150 ships are stranded, and about 10% of the world's container ships are caught in backups, potentially leading to cargo pile-ups in Europe and Asia. Qatar's energy infrastructure has also been attacked, further exacerbating the crisis.

A UK government rescue flight scheduled to depart from Muscat, Oman on Wednesday to repatriate stranded British nationals was delayed due to operational issues related to boarding passengers. The chartered plane is now expected to leave on Thursday. This comes as 138,000 UK citizens have registered for assistance, with a majority located in the UAE, following escalating conflict in the Middle East, including missile strikes in Dubai. Approximately 1,000 Britons have already returned home on commercial flights. Two additional chartered flights are planned for this week. Many UK citizens were caught in the region during layovers or vacations as the conflict intensified, impacting travel and daily life.

Escalating conflict involving Iran and the US/Israeli attacks is disrupting oil and gas supplies in the Middle East, driving up global prices. Iran has launched strikes against oil facilities and shipping in the region, particularly impacting the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for approximately 20% of the world's oil supply. Shipping traffic through the strait has significantly decreased due to safety concerns, with several tankers damaged and at least one fatality reported. Consequently, the price of oil initially surged by over 10%, and experts predict further increases if the conflict continues, potentially reaching $100 per barrel.

Oil prices surged on Monday after the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, prompting retaliatory strikes against US and Israeli military installations in the Middle East. Brent crude rose by 9 percent to $79.41 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate increased by 8.6 percent to $72.79 a barrel. The conflict has disrupted the global energy supply chain, particularly impacting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil tankers. Tankers are accumulating on either side of the strait due to concerns about attacks and insurance. Experts predict a significant price increase if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked, preventing 15 million barrels of crude oil from reaching markets daily.

Oil prices surged after the reported death of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in US-Israeli air strikes, escalating conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit route, experienced near standstill, impacting tanker traffic. This disruption raised concerns about supply shortages and increased import costs, particularly for Asian economies like China, India, Japan, and South Korea, which heavily rely on oil imports. Benchmark Brent crude jumped significantly, reflecting market fears of sustained supply disruption. Iran retaliated with attacks on US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, further escalating geopolitical tensions in the region.

Following US and Israeli strikes that killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, markets opened with a sharp sell-off in futures and Asian shares. Chinese satellite images taken on Sunday by the Dongfang Huiyan Gaofen01 satellite reveal significant damage in central Tehran, specifically to Khamenei's compound. The satellite, developed by Wuhan University and the government of Yantai, uses AI and high-definition technology. The same satellite system was previously used to analyze destruction in Gaza. On Monday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reported speaking with leaders from the UAE and Israel regarding the escalating regional situation.

The US and Israel have launched a joint military attack on Iran, with explosions reported in Tehran near the supreme leader's office. President Trump declared the start of "major combat operations" and called for regime change, urging Iranians to overthrow their government. In response, Iran launched retaliatory missile and drone strikes targeting Israel and US military bases across the Middle East, with explosions reported in multiple countries. Both Israel and Iran have closed their airspace to civilian flights. The US and Israel claim the attack was a pre-emptive strike against Iranian threats and are encouraging a popular uprising against the Iranian government.

A video published on February 28, 2026, shows an Iranian missile strike on a United States military base in Bahrain. The strike was reported by Al Jazeera. According to the news report, the attack was part of Iran's retaliation for attacks by Israel and the US within Iran. The article provides no further details regarding the extent of damage or casualties resulting from the strike. The event is framed within the context of ongoing tensions and conflict between Iran, the US, and Israel.

US and Israeli forces conducted air strikes on Iranian cities on Saturday, following weeks of tensions over Iran's nuclear program. UN Secretary General Guterres condemned the strikes, warning of wider regional conflict and calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities. Iran's Foreign Minister denounced the attacks as unprovoked and illegal. France, Germany, and the UK urged Iran to seek a negotiated solution, stating they did not participate in the strikes and condemned Iran's nuclear program and regional activities. Saudi Arabia condemned retaliatory attacks on Bahrain, the UAE, Qatar, Jordan and Kuwait. An emergency UN Security Council meeting has been called.

Following reported strikes in Iran by the US and Israel, Australia's National Security Committee is convening. Foreign Minister Penny Wong stated Australia was not informed in advance of the strikes and has updated travel advice for Israel, Lebanon, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. A crisis center has been activated to provide consular support to Australians in the region, and a registration portal has opened for Australians in Iran and Israel. Wong emphasized Iran's destabilizing role in the region and stated that Australia did not participate in the strikes. The Australian government advises Australians in the affected region to follow travel advice and seek safety, acknowledging potential difficulties with repatriation due to airspace closures.