Saudi forces planning ‘major offensive against Houthis in central Yemen’

Yemeni sources report that Saudi Arabia is preparing a significant military offensive against the Houthis in central Yemen, potentially involving sea and land attacks. This move is seen as an effort to counter the Houthis' disruption of Saudi oil exports through the Red Sea. Saudi forces have been observed withdrawing from eastern Yemen, which could signal preparations for a land offensive. Concurrently, Saudi Arabia is organizing a multinational naval coalition to protect shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab strait, with several countries having issued statements of support. The Houthis, who control Yemen's capital and much of its Red Sea coast, claim to be implementing a blockade against Saudi ships, stating it will be lifted if Saudi Arabia ends its blockade on Yemen. Recent Houthi attacks have targeted oil transport sites within Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia is seeking to form an international coalition to protect shipping in the Red Sea from attacks by Yemen's Houthis. This initiative comes as Houthi strikes on energy tankers have expanded, contributing to rising oil prices and impacting the global economic outlook. The Houthis announced a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia in July, accusing the kingdom of plundering Yemeni resources and imposing a siege. In response, Saudi Arabia has conducted air strikes on Houthi military facilities in Yemen's Hodeidah port, which it claims are used to threaten commercial shipping. The composition of the potential coalition is still being finalized and is under discussion with numerous countries.

Recent U.S. and Saudi Arabian airstrikes in Iraq targeting Iran-allied Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) have intensified Iraq's difficult balancing act between Washington and Tehran. These strikes, a response to Saudi accusations of drone attacks by Iraqi militias on oil facilities, hit bases of the PMF, a group officially part of Iraq's security forces but often operating autonomously and with close ties to Iran. The PMF has also attacked U.S. forces in Iraq. Iraq's government has set a September deadline for non-state armed groups to disarm, but powerful factions close to Iran have refused. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi faces pressure from the U.S. to control the PMF, but confronting them could lead to internal unrest. The PMF reported casualties from the strikes, and a planned visit by al-Zaidi to Saudi Arabia was postponed.

Saudi Arabia reported intercepting drones targeting oil facilities in its eastern province and Riyadh, attributing the attack to Iran-backed armed groups in Iraq and reserving the right to respond. Yemen's Houthi rebels also claimed responsibility for targeting Saudi crude oil transport infrastructure, though it's unclear if the incidents were coordinated. Jordan and Iraq also reported drone attacks, with Amman shooting down two drones and Iraqi sources reporting strikes on camps housing Iranian-Kurdish opposition fighters. These attacks occurred amid a lull in US-Iran hostilities and a potential shift in US strategy, suggesting Iran or its linked groups may be testing the new stance. Iraq is investigating Saudi claims that drones were fired from its territory.

The US military conducted "heavy" strikes against Iran on Wednesday in retaliation for attempted Iranian ballistic missile attacks on American forces. Centcom stated these strikes targeted "dozens" of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets in response to Iran firing missiles at US bases in Jordan and ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. These actions follow recent US-Saudi strikes on Iranian proxies in Iraq and come after a period of relative calm during which talks for a diplomatic solution were reportedly underway, though Iran denied discussions were happening. All Iranian missiles fired on Tuesday were intercepted.

Jordan's air defenses intercepted five missiles launched from Iran early Wednesday, with the Jordanian military confirming they were destroyed. This occurred shortly after the U.S. military announced it had downed an Iranian missile barrage targeting American forces in the Middle East, ending a brief lull in hostilities. U.S. Central Command stated that all Iranian missiles aimed at U.S. forces were intercepted. In conjunction with Saudi Arabia, U.S. forces also struck sites in Iraq used by Iran-backed militias for launching attacks. The U.S. warned that further aggression against American troops or Saudi energy infrastructure would prompt additional action.

Saudi Arabia faces a dilemma regarding its involvement in the escalating regional conflict between the US and Iran. While the US and Saudi Arabia recently conducted strikes against Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces, Saudi Arabia is attempting to avoid a full-scale war. This cautious approach is driven by Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman's "Vision 2030" initiative, which aims to diversify the Saudi economy away from oil, attract foreign investment, and develop domestic industries. These ambitious economic goals, including the construction of vulnerable infrastructure like data centers, are jeopardized by regional instability. Iran's ongoing drone and missile attacks on countries like Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain, alongside targeting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, contribute to the widening conflict, further complicating Saudi Arabia's strategic choices.