Brexit: An Oral History – podcast

Ten years after the UK voted to leave the European Union, public opinion has shifted significantly, with a majority now believing Brexit was the wrong choice and an outright failure. While economic consequences, including a 6% shrinkage of the UK economy according to the Bank of England, are evident, the article argues Brexit's most profound impact has been societal. The decade since the referendum has seen a normalization of hateful and exclusionary discourse in politics and society, particularly concerning immigration. This shift has been fueled by rhetoric that has moved from the fringe to the center of acceptable debate, influencing government policies on migration and asylum.

In February 2016, Prime Minister David Cameron announced the EU referendum date of June 23, 2016, a decision driven by a desire to address disaffection within the Conservative party. The following day, Boris Johnson declared his support for the Leave campaign, a move perceived by allies as influenced by ambition and a desire to position himself for future leadership. Senior Conservative backbencher Bernard Jenkin had previously warned Cameron that a referendum would divide the party, a concern echoed by No. 10 communications director Craig Oliver, who foresaw repercussions for Cameron regardless of the outcome. The official Remain campaign, Britain Stronger in Europe, began with a government leaflet, which Leave campaigners labeled "project fear." Labour MP Jess Phillips initially underestimated Boris Johnson's influence, viewing him as untrustworthy.

European media outlets are expressing bemusement at the frequent changes in UK prime ministers since 2016, likening Downing Street to a "transit station" or a "revolving door." This reflects a broader perception that Britain's political stability has diminished, with Brexit cited as a significant contributing factor to the instability and the downfall of leaders like Keir Starmer. Newspapers across Germany, Spain, and France have analyzed Starmer's rapid fall from power, attributing it to party discontent and the consequences of Brexit, which they argue has worsened the economy and welfare state. The rapid succession of prime ministers, including Starmer, is seen as a symptom of deeper political turmoil, with some analyses suggesting that the challenges facing the office are persistent regardless of who holds the position.

The Guardian has published a 10th-anniversary quiz testing recall of the Brexit referendum campaign and its aftermath. The quiz features 18 questions covering various aspects, including the cost and eventual name of a national festival celebrating British creativity, the origin of blue passports, and unusual campaign moments involving Nigel Farage and a pop star. It also probes knowledge about specific political figures' actions, such as who asked for Article 50 to be invoked immediately after the vote and who eventually invoked it. The quiz touches upon the referendum's vote split in Scotland, the location of a planned music festival, and celebrity endorsements. It also delves into the details of the withdrawal agreement, the formation of an anti-Brexit party, and fundraising efforts for Big Ben. Further questions explore Boris Johnson's claims about bananas, an Instagram post that irritated Theresa May, a politician's contradictory parliamentary vote, the repurposing of the Brexit bus, the location of a post-victory press conference, and David Cameron's actions after his resignation.

Ten years after the 2016 referendum, where 51.9% of Britons voted to leave the European Union, the UK's economic performance and migration patterns have diverged from pre-Brexit projections. Research indicates the UK economy is smaller than it would have been, with real GDP per capita lagging behind the EU. Business investment has also seen a significant shortfall, attributed to political and regulatory uncertainty. Trade with Europe is projected to be substantially lower, and trade deals with non-EU countries have not compensated for this decline. The article highlights that promises made during the Leave campaign have largely not materialized, with the UK falling behind its peers.

Ten years after the UK voted to leave the European Union in a 2016 referendum, Brexit continues to divide the nation. The decision, driven by frustrations with the EU and the 2008 financial crisis, promised economic revitalization and domestic focus for the UK. However, a decade later, the British economy is estimated to be 4-8% smaller than it would have been if the UK had remained in the EU, with significant non-tariff barriers impacting trade with the EU. While free movement between the UK and EU ended, net migration from non-EU countries has increased, though overall net migration has fallen sharply. Public opinion polls now indicate a majority would like to rejoin the EU and believe Brexit is going worse than expected. The political landscape has fractured, with declining support for traditional parties and a growing sentiment that Brexit has failed.

Brexit significantly altered Scotland's political landscape, bolstering support for independence as most Scottish voters backed remaining in the EU. Former Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale stated that the Brexit vote created a sense of unfairness for Scots, who were taken out of Europe despite overwhelmingly voting to remain. This sentiment, coupled with the UK government's embrace of a "hard Brexit," swayed undecided voters. While initial expectations of a surge in independence support post-Brexit did not fully materialize, support has remained near record levels, currently around 50%. Former Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson noted that while she opposed leveraging remainer anger for a second referendum, the "Boris effect" on independence support was less significant than feared, with economic concerns and other crises taking precedence for voters.

A recent survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) found that two-thirds of EU citizens would support the UK rejoining the bloc. The poll, conducted across 15 EU countries, also revealed that most UK voters believe Brexit has negatively impacted key issues like the cost of living and the economy, and desire closer ties with the EU, including freedom of movement. Even voters for far-right and Eurosceptic parties in the EU expressed support for closer UK relations. In the UK, a significant majority of respondents favored a closer relationship with the EU, with many even willing to accept freedom of movement in exchange for improved trade ties. The report suggests a fundamental shift in public opinion in both the UK and the EU regarding the UK's relationship with the bloc.