Ukraine claws back southern territory as Russia’s war enters fifth year

As the war in Ukraine entered its fifth year, Ukrainian forces claimed territorial gains in the south. President Zelenskyy initially reported regaining 300 square kilometers since an unspecified time, while his commander later cited 400 square kilometers gained since late January. These gains, along with improved air defenses protecting Kyiv, occurred despite Russian drone and missile attacks. The Institute for the Study of War attributed Ukraine's success to disruptions in Russian military communications caused by the disconnection of illegal Starlink terminals and the partial disabling of Telegram. Despite these Ukrainian gains, Russia has captured 1.5% of Ukraine over the past three years at a high cost. The battle for Pokrovsk, a logistics hub in the Donetsk region, ended in a Russian victory after two years.

Marking the fourth anniversary of the Ukraine war, President Zelensky stated that Russia's President Putin has failed to achieve his goals in the conflict, including breaking the Ukrainian spirit and winning the war. In a video address, Zelensky highlighted Ukrainian resistance and affirmed Ukraine's commitment to securing a strong and lasting peace. The war, which began on February 24, 2022, has resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths and devastated Ukraine. Despite ongoing talks facilitated by the United States, a resolution remains elusive. Zelensky emphasized that any peace agreement must be accepted by the Ukrainian people to ensure its durability and justice.

After four years, the war between Russia and Ukraine continues despite efforts to reach a settlement, including a push from the United States. The conflict, which began with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, has now lasted longer than Russia's involvement in World War II. The fighting persists, with Ukrainian servicemen actively engaging Russian positions in regions like Kharkiv. Diplomatic efforts have included meetings between U.S. President Donald Trump and both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, but a resolution remains elusive. The ongoing war highlights the deep-seated challenges in achieving peace between the two nations.

In February 2026, as the Ukraine war enters its fifth year, Moscow believes the 2022 invasion was a necessary gamble, not a failure. Russian political elites view the war as ending on their terms, driven by pragmatic motives, primarily to prevent NATO expansion towards Russia's borders. The conflict allowed security elites to eliminate pro-Western opposition and consolidate power. The decision to invade also stemmed from Ukraine's initial attempts at rapprochement with Russia under President Zelenskyy, which were later abandoned due to internal pressures. Many Russians see the war as a proxy conflict with NATO, benefiting security elites and hawkish Western lobbyists.

The UK Parliament is set to debate the release of documents concerning Prince Andrew's appointment as a UK trade envoy. A government minister has indicated that the government will likely not prevent MPs from voting to publish these documents. Separately, Keir Starmer acknowledged the resilience of the Ukrainian people, noting the initial expectation of a swift Russian victory four years ago. He recounted his visit to a Kyiv hospital and a primary school, highlighting the severe injuries and loss experienced by Ukrainians due to the conflict. Starmer urged people to combat the false narrative of Russia winning the war.

On the eve of the fourth anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, EU support is faltering as Hungary threatens to block both a new package of sanctions against Russia and a €90 billion ($106 billion) financial aid package for Ukraine. Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who maintains close ties with Russia, has a history of delaying EU sanctions. Ukraine needs the aid package to fund its defense and essential needs, expecting the first installments this spring to avoid a budget crisis. Hungary cites disruptions to the Druzhba pipeline, which supplies Russian oil, as the reason for its opposition, despite Ukraine stating the damage was caused by a Russian attack and repairs are underway. The EU is attempting to resolve the situation, but Hungary's stance highlights the challenges of the bloc's consensus-based decision-making.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán accused Ukraine of pursuing an "anti-Hungarian policy" and endangering Hungary's energy supply by blocking the Druzhba oil pipeline, which carries Russian oil through Ukraine to Hungary. Orbán published an open letter to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy demanding a change in policy and ordered increased security at Hungary's critical energy infrastructure sites, citing alleged Ukrainian actions to disrupt the country's energy system. Ukrainian officials deny blocking the pipeline, attributing disruptions to Russian drone attacks. Hungary has threatened to block a proposed €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine unless Russian oil shipments resume. The accusations come as Orbán faces an upcoming election and as billboards depicting Zelenskyy asking for money have appeared across Hungary.

The article reports on several European developments. Firstly, Poland estimates that defending NATO's eastern flank from Russia would cost €1.2 trillion, 24 times its current defense budget. Secondly, Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has requested the EU establish a fact-finding mission to inspect the Druzhba pipeline, citing escalating tensions with Ukraine and disruptions to oil transit affecting Hungary and Slovakia. Orbán assured the EU that Hungary would accept the mission's findings. Finally, Nordic countries are on high alert due to a potential threat against their energy infrastructure, allegedly linked to a foreign power. Authorities and police units are closely monitoring critical infrastructure in response to the reported threat.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban ordered increased security at critical energy infrastructure sites, alleging Ukraine is planning to disrupt Hungary's energy system. Orban stated intelligence services indicated Kyiv is preparing actions to disrupt operations, citing an existing "oil blockade" as pressure. He announced the deployment of soldiers and increased police patrols around key facilities. This follows accusations from Budapest that Kyiv is deliberately holding back Russian oil deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline, which Ukraine denies, attributing disruptions to a Russian drone attack. Hungary, along with Slovakia, maintains significant Russian energy imports despite the war in Ukraine and has threatened to block EU aid to Kyiv until oil shipments resume. The Druzhba pipeline has been out of commission since January 27.

Russian and Ukrainian officials began a third round of US-brokered peace talks in Geneva on Tuesday, ahead of the war's fourth anniversary. The negotiations, led by Rustem Umerov for Ukraine, will address security and humanitarian issues. Despite the talks, Russia launched heavy air strikes across Ukraine, damaging infrastructure and leaving many without essential services. Ukraine's President Zelenskyy urged allies to increase pressure on Russia for a "real and just" peace deal. The US President Trump has pushed for a deal, stating Ukraine needs to come to the table quickly. Russia is demanding Ukraine cede the remaining 20 percent of the eastern region of Donetsk, which Ukraine refuses to do.

Envoys from Ukraine and Russia convened in Geneva for a second day of US-brokered talks aimed at addressing political and military differences arising from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The negotiations, held on Wednesday, follow previous discussions in Abu Dhabi earlier in the year. Rustem Umerov, head of the Ukrainian delegation, stated that working groups are clarifying parameters and mechanisms of previously discussed decisions. These talks represent the third round of direct negotiations organized by the U.S. Washington's envoy, Steve Witkoff, noted that the U.S. efforts have led to "meaningful progress" in the past year. The goal is to find a path toward resolving the ongoing conflict.

Senior Ukrainian and Russian officials will meet in Switzerland this week for a second round of talks, brokered by the Trump administration, ahead of the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The two-day meeting, starting Tuesday, will include representatives from Washington, Kyiv, and Moscow, similar to negotiations held earlier this month in Abu Dhabi. The purpose of the meeting is to foster diplomacy between the warring countries. However, expectations for a significant breakthrough are low due to Russia's continued hardline demands on Ukraine. Despite renewed US efforts, the situation remains tense.

Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the former army chief of Ukraine and now ambassador to the United Kingdom, has revealed a rift between himself and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In an interview with the Associated Press in London on February 2, 2026, Zaluzhnyi, who is seen as a potential political rival to Zelenskyy, discussed the previously unseen tensions. The article suggests the disagreement may stem from differing views on the direction of the war and potentially, political ambitions. The revelation comes after Zaluzhnyi was removed from his position as army chief in February 2024. The details of the rift and its potential impact on Ukraine's political landscape remain to be seen.

After President Trump's return to the White House in January 2025, his promise to quickly end the war in Ukraine has not materialized. In 2025, the conflict worsened for Ukrainians, with increased civilian casualties and Russian territorial gains. Trump shifted U.S. policy by reducing aid to Ukraine by 99% and halting weapon shipments unless paid for, while simultaneously making overtures to Russia. Meanwhile, Russia increased weapons production and attacks, severely damaging Ukraine's power grid. Negotiations involving Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. are scheduled, as Trump seeks to be credited with ending the war.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Vladimir Putin's historical arguments as a "delay tactic" in peace negotiations, urging a focus on ending the war. Zelenskyy stated that debating history would only prolong the process and that the only relevant discussion is how to achieve a swift resolution. His comments followed talks in Switzerland between Ukrainian, U.S., and Russian officials, which Zelenskyy suggested yielded limited progress, particularly on sensitive political matters. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte questioned Russia's seriousness about negotiations, noting the presence of Vladimir Medinsky, known for emphasizing historical narratives. Medinsky described the talks as "difficult but businesslike."

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has threatened to cut off electricity supplies to Ukraine if it does not resume pumping Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline within two days. Oil flows were halted after a reported Russian drone strike in late January 2026. Slovakia and Hungary, both reliant on Russian oil, are demanding Ukraine resume deliveries. Fico accused Ukrainian President Zelenskyy of acting maliciously towards Slovakia, citing previous gas supply disruptions and Slovakia's refusal to participate in a 90 billion euro military loan for Ukraine. Slovakia is a key electricity provider for Ukraine, which has suffered damage to its grid from Russian attacks. The ultimatum highlights tensions between Slovakia and Ukraine amidst ongoing debates over EU financial aid to Ukraine.

On Saturday, Ukrainian drones struck an industrial site in Russia's Udmurt Republic, wounding 11 people. While regional head Alexander Brechalov confirmed the attack and resulting damage, he did not identify the specific site. However, a Russian news channel, Astra, reported the target was the Votkinsk Machine Building Plant, a key state-owned missile factory that produces Iskander and intercontinental ballistic missiles. The attack, which occurred over 1,400 kilometers from Ukraine, prompted the suspension of operations at the Udmurt Republic's main airport and others nearby. This strike follows unsuccessful U.S.-brokered peace talks between Russia and Ukraine held in Switzerland earlier in the week, as the fourth anniversary of the war approaches.

Western officials claim that Russian battlefield losses in Ukraine exceeded recruitment by approximately 9,000 in January. This suggests Ukraine's strategy to inflict heavier damage on Russian forces is gaining traction. Despite these losses, Russian forces failed to achieve significant territorial gains during the same period. Ukrainian officials aim to increase Russian losses to 50,000 per month by summer, hoping to strain Russia's ability to replace troops without further mobilization. While December saw Russian losses roughly equal to recruitment, the January deficit indicates a potential shift in the conflict's dynamics, although the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain. The assessment of Western officials could not be independently verified.

In February 2026, Russia intensified its air assaults on Ukraine, coinciding with visits from Western officials. These attacks, involving drones and missiles, targeted energy infrastructure across the country, causing widespread power outages and forcing a nuclear power plant to shut down. Ukrainian air defenses managed to intercept a significant portion of the incoming weapons. The strikes have resulted in civilian casualties, including the deaths of children in Bohodukhiv and elsewhere. Russia's actions are seen as an attempt to weaken Ukraine's defenses and punish its growing ties with the West. Emergency crews are working to restore power and heat amidst freezing temperatures.

On Thursday, February 12, 2026, Russia launched a barrage of missiles and drones at Ukrainian cities. This occurred as the possibility of another round of US-brokered peace talks between Russia and Ukraine remained uncertain. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine had agreed to attend proposed negotiations in either Miami or Abu Dhabi, but Russia was hesitant. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov indicated that talks were expected "soon" without providing specifics. The US government has not commented on the potential for further negotiations, which are part of an ongoing peace effort. Zelenskyy previously stated that the US has set a June deadline for a deal between the two countries.

Russian and Ukrainian envoys will meet in Geneva next week, February 17-18, for US-brokered talks aimed at finding a resolution to the ongoing war. This round of negotiations follows two previous meetings in Abu Dhabi and comes as the conflict approaches its fourth year. The primary sticking point remains the future of the Donbas region, with Russia demanding Ukraine withdraw from the portion of Donetsk it still controls. Ukraine seeks Western security guarantees to prevent future Russian offensives. The US has reportedly given both sides a June deadline to reach an agreement. The conflict, which began in 2022, has resulted in hundreds of thousands of military and civilian casualties.