How the Trump-Xi summit could set superpower relations for many years to come

The Iran whisperer?China is trying to quietly step in as a peacemaker with the war now in its third month. Beijing has joined Pakistan as a mediator in the US-Israel war against Iran.Officials in Beijing and Islamabad in March presented a five-point plan with the aim of bringing about a ceasefire and re-opening the Strait of Hormuz. And behind the scenes, Chinese officials have been gently nudging their Iranian counterparts towards the negotiation table.There's no doubt, despite its steady show of strength, that China is eager for an end to this war.The country's economy is already battling slower growth and higher unemployment. Increasing oil prices have driven up the cost of items made with petrochemicals, everything from textiles to plastics. For some producers in China, costs have gone up 20%.ReutersA billboard in Tehran shows the Strait of Hormuz as a gag stitched across Trump's mouth China has enviable oil reserves and the lead it has taken in renewables and electric cars has insulated it from the worst effects of the fuel crisis, but the war is causing more pain to a sluggish Chinese economy that is heavily reliant on exports. However, if China is to step in and help the US, it will still want something in return.The visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Beijing last week seemed designed to show the kind of hold and influence China has in the Middle East.The US was watching closely. "I hope the Chinese tell him what he needs to be told," said US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. "And that is that what you are doing in the Strait is causing you to be globally isolated. You're the bad guy in this."VCG via Getty ImagesOil prices affect Chinese exports and textile production significantly The US has also attempted to convince China not to block a new UN Security Council resolution condemning Iran's attacks on ships attempting to transit Hormuz after it, and Russia vetoed an earlier proposal."I think if we're going to bring Iran back to the negotiating table in an enduring way, I think that the United States recognises that China is going to play some role," says Ali Wyne, Senior Research and Advocacy Advisor for US-China relations at International Crisis Group.Trump, for his part, has appeared unbothered by China's close relationship with Tehran. While the US recently sanctioned a China-based refinery for transporting Iranian oil, the president last week downplayed any Chinese support for Iran during the conflict."It is what it is, right?" he told a US journalist. "We do things, too, against them."Taiwan's futureThe Trump administration has been sending mixed signals when it comes to Taiwan.Last December, the US announced an $11bn (£8bn) arms deal with Taiwan, infuriating the Chinese government in the process. Trump, however, has downplayed the US willingness to defend Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory."He considers it to be a part of China," Trump said of Xi, "and that's up to him, what he's going to be doing."He has also said Taiwan does not adequately reimburse the US for its security guarantees, adding that it "doesn't give us anything". Last year, he imposed a 15% tariff on Taiwan and accused it of stealing semiconductor manufacturing from the US.Last week, Rubio said that Taiwan will be a topic of conversation during the visit, although the goal will be ensuring that the issue does not become a source of new tension between the two superpowers."We don't need any destabilising events to occur with regards to Taiwan or anywhere in the Indo-Pacific," he said. "And I think that's to the mutual benefit of both the United States and the Chinese."Anadolu via Getty ImagesTaiwan relies on the US for military supportFor its part, China has signalled that Taiwan is a priority in these talks. The Foreign Minister Wang Yi said last week that he hoped the US would make the "right choices" during a call with Rubio.Beijing has been ramping up its military pressure by sending warplanes and naval vessels around Taiwan almost daily.Some analysts believe Chinese officials may be pushing for a change of language of the wording on Taiwan that was carefully drafted back in 1982. Washington's most recently declared policy is that it currently does not support Taiwan independence. Could Beijing push for stronger wording such as "the US opposes Taiwan independence"?"I just don't think that President Xi is going to go for that," says John Delury, a senior fellow from the Centre on US-China Relations at the Asia Society. "Even if Trump says something kind of left field that looks like some capitulation on Taiwan, because he's not so careful with his use of language, the Chinese know better than to put much stock in that, because he can reverse it with a Truth Social post a week later."Critical trade talksFor much of 2025, the US and China appeared to be on the verge of a new trade war, one that could shake the foundations of the global economy.Trump repeatedly raised and lowered tariffs on America's largest trading partner, at times reaching rates of over 100%.China responded by curtailing exports of rare earth minerals to the US and its purchase of American agricultural exports, hitting farmers in key states that voted for Trump.The temperature has cooled considerably since Trump and Xi met face-to-face in South Korea last October. The February Supreme Court decision curtailing the president's unilateral tariff power also helped to tamp down Trump's more mercurial trade instincts.Trump and Xi will still have plenty to talk about during their Beijing summit, however. The American leader will push to increase Chinese purchase of US agricultural products. China is sure to pressure the US to drop a recently announced trade probe into unfair business practices that could give Trump the ability to reimpose higher tariffs on Chinese goods.Many US policymakers, however, believe official Chinese policy is to co-opt or outright steal US technology to advance their domestic industries. It has led to restrictions on the export of the latest microprocessors, for instance, despite objections from American manufacturers.ReutersChip diplomacy will be a critical part of the talksThe successful resolution to the thorny issue of Chinese ownership and operation of the popular social media app TikTok was a rare happy ending for US-China interactions on technology that frequently are beset by accusations and suspicion.This dynamic is playing itself out in the race to develop AI systems, perhaps the key new technological development of modern times. The issue is complicated by US accusations that Chinese companies like DeepSeek are stealing American AI."An opening chapter of an AI cold war is emerging," says Yingyi Ma, from the John L Thornton China Centre at the Brookings Institute. "The White House has accused China of 'industrial scale' theft of American AI models, while Beijing reportedly moved to prevent Meta from acquiring Manus, a Chinese-founded AI start-up now based in Singapore. The deeper contest is not over who copies whose model, but over the talent capable of building the next generation of frontier AI."China's robots are capable of putting on a show, doing Kung Fu dance moves and racing faster than humans during a marathon in Beijing.VCG via Getty ImagesMartial arts robots have been used to great effect to showcase Chinese tech But while Chinese companies appear to be adept at building the bodies of these robots, many are still working on programming the brains of their new creations. To build the best, Chinese companies need high end computer chips, and those come from the US.