Qatar warns Iran war could halt Gulf energy exports ‘within weeks’

Qatar's Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi has warned that a prolonged war with Iran could halt Gulf energy exports within weeks, affecting global economies. The warning comes as Qatar halted liquefied natural gas (LNG) production in response to Iranian missile and drone attacks on the country and its neighbors. LNG production from Qatar accounts for about 20% of global supply and plays a key role in balancing Asian and European markets' demand. Al-Kaabi stated that if the war continues, GDP growth worldwide will be impacted, leading to higher energy prices, shortages, and chain reactions among factories. He also expects all Gulf exporters to call force majeure, freeing them from liability or obligations due to extraordinary events. The minister estimated it would take Qatar weeks to months to return to normal deliveries even if the war ended immediately.

A disruption to Qatar's LNG output, reportedly due to Iranian drone strikes and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has triggered a surge in Asian gas prices to a three-year high. Qatar, a major LNG exporter, halted production at its Ras Laffan plant on Monday, prompting Asian buyers to seek replacement cargoes and some industries to reduce consumption. The incident highlights Asia's vulnerability due to its heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels, particularly from the Middle East. Analysts suggest this disruption underscores the need for the region to accelerate its transition to renewable energy sources. The rising spot LNG prices in Asia reached approximately US$23.80 per million British thermal units on Friday.

Attacks on energy facilities in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, coupled with an Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, are causing a surge in global oil and gas prices. According to a March 4, 2026, Al Jazeera report, these disruptions are predicted to increase energy costs worldwide. The rising prices are expected to impact gasoline, electricity, and heating expenses for consumers. The events in the Middle East are the primary driver behind the anticipated global energy market instability. Analyst Marah Rayan examined the potential consequences of these events.

Experts are warning that Australian energy bills could significantly increase due to escalating conflict in Iran. The situation is drawing comparisons to 2022, when electricity prices surged over 40% following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Concerns stem from US-Israel strikes on Iran and reports that Qatar, a major liquefied natural gas exporter, halted production after an Iranian drone attack on its Ras Laffan complex. This disruption in gas supply could lead to higher energy costs for Australian consumers and businesses, potentially requiring government intervention through subsidies, similar to the response in 2022. The potential price surge is attributed to the interconnectedness of global gas markets and the impact of geopolitical instability on supply chains.

Escalating conflict involving Iran and the US/Israeli attacks is disrupting oil and gas supplies in the Middle East, driving up global prices. Iran has launched strikes against oil facilities and shipping in the region, particularly impacting the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for approximately 20% of the world's oil supply. Shipping traffic through the strait has significantly decreased due to safety concerns, with several tankers damaged and at least one fatality reported. Consequently, the price of oil initially surged by over 10%, and experts predict further increases if the conflict continues, potentially reaching $100 per barrel.

On March 2, 2026, QatarEnergy halted liquefied natural gas (LNG) production following drone attacks on its facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City, Qatar. The Qatari Defence Ministry attributed the attacks to Iran, stating that two drones targeted a water tank and an energy facility. Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia temporarily shut down units at the Ras Tanura oil refinery after a drone attack caused a fire. The Saudi Ministry of Defence reported that two drones attempted to attack the refinery, resulting in limited damage and no casualties. As a result of the production halt in Qatar, natural gas prices in Europe soared by almost 50 percent.

Oil prices surged on Monday after the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, prompting retaliatory strikes against US and Israeli military installations in the Middle East. Brent crude rose by 9 percent to $79.41 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate increased by 8.6 percent to $72.79 a barrel. The conflict has disrupted the global energy supply chain, particularly impacting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil tankers. Tankers are accumulating on either side of the strait due to concerns about attacks and insurance. Experts predict a significant price increase if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked, preventing 15 million barrels of crude oil from reaching markets daily.