Could the US-Iran war become a protracted ‘frozen’ conflict?

President Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran, initially set to expire Wednesday, to allow Iran more time to develop a unified proposal to end the ongoing war. The decision followed a day of diplomatic uncertainty, including the postponement of a planned trip by Vice President JD Vance to Islamabad for peace talks mediated by Pakistan. While Vance never officially announced the trip, Iran also never committed to attending the talks. Trump's decision marks the second time in recent weeks he has delayed escalating the conflict. The extension's duration was not specified, unlike a previous two-week ceasefire deadline. Trump announced the extension via Truth Social, citing a request from Pakistan.

Pakistan is urgently trying to persuade Iran to rejoin US talks in Islamabad aimed at ending their eight-week war, as a ceasefire deadline approaches on Wednesday. US Vice President JD Vance, along with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are expected to arrive in Pakistan to resume negotiations. However, recent escalatory actions by the US have complicated Pakistan's mediation efforts. Despite Pakistan's efforts, Iran publicly maintains it has no plans to return to negotiations, with an Iranian ambassador referencing that they will not negotiate under threat. The arrival of US personnel and equipment in Pakistan further underscores the urgency of the situation.

US negotiators, according to President Trump, will travel to Islamabad, Pakistan on Monday for a second round of talks with Iranian negotiators aimed at ending the US-Israel war on Iran. The previous talks, led by Vice President Vance, concluded without an agreement. Trump accused Iran of violating the existing ceasefire, set to expire Wednesday, by opening fire in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. He threatened severe repercussions, including the destruction of Iranian infrastructure, if Iran doesn't accept the US deal. Iran has not confirmed participation in the new talks, citing a US naval blockade as a violation of the ceasefire and an "unlawful and criminal" act.

Pakistan is urgently trying to persuade Iran to rejoin US talks in Islamabad aimed at ending their eight-week war, as a ceasefire deadline approaches on Wednesday. US Vice President JD Vance, along with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are expected to arrive in Pakistan to resume negotiations. However, recent escalatory actions by the US have complicated Pakistan's mediation efforts. Despite Pakistan's efforts, Iran publicly maintains it has no plans to return to negotiations, with an Iranian ambassador referencing that they will not negotiate under threat. The arrival of US personnel and equipment in Pakistan further underscores the urgency of the situation.

Amidst rising tensions and an expiring ceasefire, US-Iran talks aimed at ending their ongoing war face uncertainty. Scheduled to be held in Islamabad, the talks, led by US Vice President JD Vance, are jeopardized by Iran's refusal to confirm participation. The two-week ceasefire, set to expire on April 22nd, 2026, is threatened by recent escalations, including a US naval blockade and the seizure of an Iranian vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has condemned the seizure as "piracy" and threatened retaliation, while the US has warned of further military action if a deal is not reached. The article outlines four potential scenarios for the coming days, as both sides exchange threats and the future of negotiations remains unclear.

Ahmad Vahidi's recent appointment to lead Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is raising concerns about the country's future direction. Vahidi, considered a hardliner with a history linked to global attacks and a "Death to America" ideology, is now a key figure in deciding whether Iran pursues peace talks or resumes conflict. Analysts suggest his rise indicates a shift towards prioritizing the IRGC's agenda and a potential escalation of tensions with the U.S. and its allies. This development occurs as Iran's formal political institutions appear weaker, with power increasingly concentrated in informal networks, heightening risks to regional and global stability.

Asian shares were mixed in cautious trading on Wednesday as investors watched for next steps in the US-Iran conflict. President Donald Trump extended a ceasefire that was set to expire, giving Iran time to submit a proposal to end the war. The move led to a decline in US stock markets, with the S&P 500 falling 0.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 0.6%. Oil prices also fluctuated, with benchmark crude falling 86 cents to $88.81 a barrel. The mixed trading was seen across various Asian benchmarks, including Japan's Nikkei 225 rising 0.4%, South Korea's Kospi adding 0.5%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng losing 1.2%. The uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict has led to cautious trading in the region.

Australian Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong has expressed disappointment over the failed peace talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad, Pakistan. These talks, the highest-level direct engagement in decades, aimed to secure a deal and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Wong urged both countries to continue the ceasefire and resume negotiations swiftly. She warned that escalating the conflict would result in greater human cost and negatively impact the global economy. The US delegation left empty-handed, failing to receive assurances from Iran regarding its nuclear weapon capabilities. Iranian media blamed "excessive" US demands for the breakdown. The Australian government has repeatedly warned of the conflict's impact on global trade and the economy, even after a ceasefire is reached.

US-Iran ceasefire talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, concluded without an agreement on April 12, 2026, raising concerns about the future of the existing truce set to expire on April 22. Both sides blamed each other for the failure of the negotiations, which aimed to resolve the conflict following a 40-day war that began on February 28. The US, along with Israel, initiated the war with the goal of dismantling Iran's nuclear and missile programs and its support for regional proxy groups, presenting a 15-point plan that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran countered with a 10-point plan demanding control over the Strait, an end to attacks on its proxies, and compensation for war damages. With no resolution reached, negotiators are returning to their respective capitals to reassess their positions, and the possibility of renewed conflict remains.

High-level talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad, aimed at resolving decades of hostility, concluded without a resolution after 21 hours. The discussions, held during a pause in ongoing conflict, addressed complex issues including Iran's nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite failing to reach an agreement, the meeting was significant as it broke a longstanding political taboo. The immediate concern is the future of the two-week ceasefire, which was implemented following threats from the US. The talks sought to address deep distrust and prevent further escalation of the conflict. The next steps for both nations remain uncertain.

US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan have collapsed, raising concerns about a prolonged energy shock and rising oil prices. US Vice President JD Vance blamed Iran's nuclear program for the failure, while Iranian sources cited "excessive" demands from Washington. The breakdown in negotiations is expected to cause oil prices to rise to around $98 a barrel when trading resumes, with analysts predicting prices could remain above $100 a barrel in the second quarter. The conflict began on February 28th with US and Israeli airstrikes on Tehran. Former President Trump stated that the US would blockade the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran claims to control, following the failed talks.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2026 from 3.3% to 3.1% due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran, beginning in late February 2026. Iran's subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on regional energy infrastructure have driven up oil and gas prices, contributing to a higher global inflation forecast of 4.4%. The IMF anticipates the largest GDP growth declines in countries closest to the conflict and those reliant on energy imports. The Middle East and North Africa's growth forecast was cut by 2.8 points to 1.1%, while Iran's outlook experienced a significant revision, forecasting a 6.1% contraction. The IMF highlights the policy trade-offs between fighting inflation, preserving growth, and supporting those affected by the rising cost of living.

On day 44 of the US-Iran conflict, talks held in Islamabad, Pakistan, aimed at ending the war, concluded without an agreement. The 21-hour negotiations, intended to solidify a fragile ceasefire, failed due to disagreements, with both sides blaming each other. The conflict, ongoing for over six weeks, has resulted in thousands of deaths, primarily in Iran, and has significantly impacted global oil and gas prices. While the US delegation, led by Vice President JD Vance, expressed disappointment, Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar stated that Islamabad would continue to facilitate future peace talks. Despite skepticism among Iranian residents, there remains hope for a resolution to the conflict, which has claimed over 2,000 Iranian lives.

Following failed peace negotiations in Pakistan, Donald Trump announced the US will blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway controlled by Iran. The US president threatened further action, including bombing Iranian infrastructure, if Iran doesn't abandon its nuclear program. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards responded that any attempt to enforce a blockade would be considered a breach of the ceasefire. The US claims the blockade aims to stop Iran from extorting ships passing through the strait, while Iran insists the strait remains under its control. The US also intends to de-mine the central section of the strait. This action risks escalating tensions and could impact relations with countries like China and India that import Iranian oil.

On day 47 of the US-Iran conflict in April 2026, despite a US naval blockade, President Trump indicated potential second-round talks with Iran, possibly in Pakistan. The IMF warned of a global recession if the conflict escalates. The Red Cross delivered humanitarian aid to Iran, marking the first such delivery since the war began. The US Treasury will end a waiver allowing the sale of Iranian oil. Rare US-brokered talks occurred between Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors in Washington, DC, addressing ceasefire demands and Hezbollah disarmament. Negotiations are stalled over uranium enrichment moratorium length, with the US seeking 20 years and Iran proposing five. Iran estimates $270 billion in war losses and plans to seek reparations.

The United States and Iran are preparing for peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan on April 10, 2026, mediated by Pakistan, despite modest expectations for a lasting agreement. The ceasefire, based on Iran's 10-point proposal, reflects Iranian terms more than American, including continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz. The US appears to have tacitly acknowledged Iran's authority over the strait and its upper hand in setting negotiation terms. Iran's demands include recognition of its control over the strait, acceptance of uranium enrichment, the lifting of all US and UN sanctions, and a US military withdrawal from the region. Even if the talks fail to produce a deal, the ceasefire may prevent a return to full-scale war.

Pakistan played a crucial role in brokering a ceasefire between the US/Israel and Iran after escalating tensions threatened to engulf the region. Prime Minister Sharif expressed pessimism about peace prospects before the agreement. Army Chief Asim Munir leveraged his relationships with both the US and Iran to mediate. The situation was critical for Pakistan due to its economic vulnerabilities, defense pact with Saudi Arabia, and internal security concerns. While the US claimed Iran initiated the ceasefire request, Pakistani officials suggest both sides desired an end to the conflict. Pakistan viewed the successful mediation as a significant diplomatic achievement, averting a potentially disastrous regional war.

US President Donald Trump has proposed a potential "joint venture" with Iran to secure the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global chokepoint. This proposal follows a recently announced two-week ceasefire between the two nations, mediated by Pakistan. Trump's administration envisions this joint effort as a way to ensure open passage and protect the strait from external threats. While the White House acknowledges the idea is under discussion, they emphasize the US demand for the immediate and unrestricted reopening of the Strait. The proposal aims to reconcile Iran's desire for regional influence with the US insistence on freedom of navigation in the area.

Despite a US-brokered ceasefire between the US and Iran, Israeli attacks on Lebanon intensified on Thursday, jeopardizing the truce. These attacks followed Israel's largest strikes on Lebanon, resulting in over 250 deaths. While Iranian negotiators are scheduled to meet with a US delegation in Pakistan for peace talks, Iran maintains its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, exacerbating global energy supply disruptions and pushing oil prices to record highs. Israel claims its actions in Lebanon, where it invaded to target Hezbollah, are not covered by the ceasefire, a position supported by the US but disputed by Iran and Pakistan. Several countries, including Britain and France, have condemned Israel's actions and called for the ceasefire to include Lebanon.

Following a ceasefire announcement mediated by Pakistan, a sense of relief mixed with skepticism has settled over Tehran on April 8, 2026, after weeks of bombardment by the US and Israel. While some normalcy returns to the city, with increased traffic and resumed flights in Israel, concerns remain about the ceasefire's durability. Negotiations for a lasting agreement are scheduled to begin in Islamabad on Friday. However, attacks on Iranian oil facilities and retaliatory strikes by Iran against Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain have occurred after the ceasefire was announced. Despite the ongoing tensions, all parties involved are claiming victory, but Iran has stated it is ready to resume military operations if attacked again.

On April 9, 2026, a ceasefire was brokered to end the US-Israel war on Iran and Israel's attacks on Lebanon. The conflict, which lasted 42 days, prompted mourning in Lebanon due to Israeli raids. Details of the ceasefire, including Iran's 10-point peace plan and the parties involved in talks held in Islamabad, Pakistan, were being reported. Pakistan played a key role in brokering the truce. The live news coverage of these events, including key developments from Day 42 of the war, has now concluded.

The six Gulf Arab monarchies are apprehensive about ongoing US-Iran negotiations in Pakistan, fearing that any resulting peace agreement could compromise their security and economic diversification efforts. This concern stems from past attacks by Iranian drones and missiles, coupled with the recent failure of their UN Security Council bid to secure defensive measures for the Strait of Hormuz due to vetoes from China and Russia. Gulf states feel sidelined in the negotiations, relying on information from Washington and Islamabad. Officials and commentators in the UAE and Kuwait have voiced concerns about being excluded from the process, fearing the potential consequences for their long-term stability and economic goals.

Following a US-Israel war on Iran, Gulf states are reassessing their security strategies due to an emboldened Iran and battered economies. Gulf nations aim to diversify security partnerships, potentially including countries like Turkey and Pakistan, moving away from sole reliance on the US. A key point of contention remains Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital trade route, which will be a focus in upcoming US-Iran talks. Despite successfully intercepting many Iranian missiles during the conflict, Gulf states are divided on future relations with Iran, ranging from hawkish stances to hopes for renewed ties. Saudi Arabia and Iran have initiated contact to de-escalate tensions, highlighting the need to insulate the region from perpetual conflict and rebuild economic foundations.

Shortly after the US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire, the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain reported missile and drone attacks. The UAE stated its air defenses were actively intercepting incoming missiles and drones originating from Iran. Kuwait reported its army intercepted Iranian drones targeting vital oil facilities, power stations, and water desalination plants, resulting in infrastructure damage. Bahrain's Ministry of Interior reported injuries and property damage from shrapnel due to intercepted Iranian drones. The attacks occurred hours after the ceasefire announcement, raising questions about the stability of the agreement.