Tuesday briefing: How the conflict in Iran shattered the Gulf state image of peace and luxury

Following a weekend of escalating conflict in the Middle East, Mojtaba Khamenei has assumed leadership in Iran, succeeding his late father. This transition occurs as oil prices surpass $100 a barrel and regional casualties mount. Over the weekend, both sides struck new targets, including civilian infrastructure, with Bahrain accusing Iran of attacking a desalination plant and Israel targeting oil depots in Tehran. The US reported another soldier's death, and Saudi Arabia announced its first fatalities. The conflict, now in its tenth day, has displaced over half a million people in Lebanon and resulted in hundreds of deaths there, with Israel warning of a prolonged war.

Iran significantly escalated attacks on civilian infrastructure and transport networks across the Gulf on Wednesday, targeting commercial ships and Dubai's international airport. These actions occurred as US and Israeli warplanes launched new strikes. The UAE, particularly Dubai, has borne the brunt of these attacks, facing an existential threat as foreigners flee. The escalation has caused oil prices to rise above $100 a barrel, with Iran threatening a long "war of attrition." Meanwhile, a review revealed the US defense secretary has voiced extreme antipathy towards Iran for years. A bill addressing the situation has passed the House, but lacks the necessary votes in the Senate due to filibuster rules.

A projectile struck a residential area in Al-Kharj, Saudi Arabia on Sunday, killing two foreign nationals (one Indian and one Bangladeshi) and injuring twelve others. Saudi authorities reported the incident, attributing it to an unspecified "military projectile," while Iran's IRGC claimed responsibility, stating they targeted radar systems in the Al-Kharj governorate, home to the Prince Sultan airbase. This attack is part of a series of Iranian counterattacks on Gulf nations hosting US military assets, following Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities. Other attacks on Sunday included intercepted drones in Riyadh, damage to fuel tanks at Kuwait's international airport, and damage to a water desalination plant in Bahrain. The escalating conflict raises concerns for the safety of the diverse international workforce across the Gulf.

The article suggests that Russia is observing the escalating conflict involving Iran, anticipating potential long-term benefits. Events depicted in the article include a meeting between the Iranian President and Vladimir Putin in Moscow in January 2025. The article also references a U.S.-Israeli military attack in Tehran in March 2026, as well as reports of Iranian strikes in Dubai around the same time. The death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is also mentioned as occurring in early March 2026. Russia's strategy appears to be one of non-intervention, possibly calculating that the conflict will ultimately strengthen its geopolitical position.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated on March 8, 2026, that Iran will not yield to pressure from the United States and Israel. This announcement comes as tensions between Iran and these nations continue to rise. Pezeshkian's statement underscores Iran's resolve to maintain its position despite external pressures. The context of the statement is the ongoing geopolitical friction involving Iran, the US, and Israel. The location of the announcement was within Iran, as Pezeshkian is the Iranian President.

Following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei amid escalating conflict, Iran has signaled that his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, is likely to be named the new supreme leader. Ayatollah Hosseinali Eshkevari stated a vote had been cast, and another cleric indicated the announcement would be made by Hosseini Bushehri. Wartime conditions have prevented a public gathering to confirm the selection. The news comes as Israel reportedly struck fuel depots in Tehran, and Bahrain claimed an Iranian attack damaged a desalination plant. US President Donald Trump asserted that Washington should have a say in the selection process, implying potential consequences if the chosen leader doesn't receive US approval.

Recent Iranian attacks in the Gulf have expanded beyond traditional oil and gas infrastructure to include data centers, signaling a shift in targeting strategic assets. On March 1st, drone attacks damaged three Amazon Web Services data centers in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. These attacks suggest a deliberate effort to undermine the Gulf's post-oil future, particularly its ambitions in artificial intelligence. The region's AI investments, supported by partnerships and cloud providers, rely on cheap and reliable power, which is now threatened. This new focus on data centers poses a risk to the Gulf's economic diversification efforts.

On March 2, 2026, Iran's retaliatory strikes against US assets in the Gulf region entered their third day, escalating fears of a prolonged conflict. Explosions were reported in Dubai, Doha, and Kuwait, with Kuwaiti air defenses intercepting drones near residential areas. Iran stated the attacks were in response to ongoing US-Israeli strikes on Iran, targeting US military assets and impacting civilian areas across Gulf cities. Bahrain activated air raid alerts and closed a major bridge. Casualties have been reported in Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar, while US-Israeli attacks have resulted in significant casualties in Iran and Israel. The US, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE jointly condemned Iran's attacks and affirmed their right to self-defense.

Multiple Gulf nations, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait, reported missile and drone attacks on Saturday. These attacks occurred despite an earlier apology from the Iranian president to Gulf countries, where he stated they would not be targeted unless strikes originated from their territory. Hours later, Iran declared its intent to continue strikes on sites within Gulf countries it considered to be at the disposal of its enemies. The UAE's president acknowledged the country was in "a period of war." Dubai authorities reported one death, a Pakistani national, resulting from debris from an aerial interception. Kuwait's national oil company announced a precautionary cut to production.

The Australian government is warning of "serious" travel disruptions in the Middle East due to the ongoing conflict involving Iran, the US, and Israel. Approximately 115,000 Australians are currently in the region, and the government has not yet committed to repatriation flights. Major airlines like Emirates, Etihad, and Qatar Airways have suspended operations, impacting travel through key hubs in Qatar, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi, some of which sustained damage. Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong stated that airspace closures will affect many Australians and that the government's ability to assist those stranded is limited. Travelers are advised to prepare for significant delays and cancellations.

The US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, escalating tensions in the Middle East. Iran has vowed retaliation, drawing regional powers into the conflict. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, and senior cleric Alireza Arafi will lead Iran in the transitional period. Donald Trump expressed willingness to negotiate with the remaining Iranian leadership. Elsewhere, the UK's RAF Akrotiri base in Cyprus was hit by a suspected drone strike, causing minor damage. In the UK, new asylum rules designate refugee status as temporary, lasting 30 months, and the Green Party's membership surpassed 200,000 after a byelection victory. Concerns are also rising about the potential impact of data centers on the UK's greenhouse gas emissions.

Iranian missiles struck multiple locations across the Arab Gulf states, including Dubai and Abu Dhabi, marking a significant escalation of regional conflict. The attacks damaged infrastructure, including airports and hotels in Dubai, demonstrating Iran's capability to strike US allies in the region. These strikes, according to analysts, aim to deter Gulf states from supporting potential US or Israeli actions against Iran. The attacks highlight the vulnerability of Gulf nations and underscore Iran's willingness to "internationalize the battlefield," bringing the conflict directly to its neighbors. This development is likely to strengthen Arab rulers' support for potential US-Israeli strikes.

Amidst escalating regional conflict following a US-Israeli attack on Iran, UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan stated the UAE is prepared to confront threats as Iran continues striking Gulf countries hosting US military assets. His comments, made on March 7, 2026, follow attacks within the UAE, including one that resulted in a fatality in Dubai. While Iranian President Pezeshkian initially apologized for strikes on neighboring countries, judiciary chief Ejei contradicted this, asserting Iran will continue "heavy attacks" on areas perceived as aiding the enemy. Despite Pezeshkian's later qualification emphasizing friendly relations, he maintained Iran's right to self-defense, signaling continued tensions in the region.

Following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a US-Israeli attack on March 1, 2026, Iran has formed a three-member transitional council to govern the country. The council consists of Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, President Masoud Pezeshkian, and Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei. Arafi's appointment was confirmed by the Expediency Council. According to the Iranian Constitution, this council will oversee state duties until the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member panel, selects a new supreme leader. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and security chief Ali Larijani are also expected to play significant roles during the transition. The commander-in-chief of the IRGC was also killed in the same attack.

Following the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a US-Israeli air strike, China condemned the action amidst turmoil in Tehran and regional escalation. Despite the political uncertainty, analysts predict China's economic relationship with Iran, as its top oil buyer and trade partner, will remain strong. China is expected to maintain a pragmatic approach to Iran's new leadership, even if Tehran shifts towards the West, potentially impacting Chinese diplomatic and defense goals in the Middle East. A temporary leadership council consisting of Alireza Arafi, Masoud Pezeshkian, and Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei will govern until the Assembly of Experts selects Khamenei's successor. The US President has called for regime change in Iran.

Following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a U.S. and Israeli bombardment, Iran is facing a succession crisis as it chooses its second supreme leader since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Potential replacements include hard-liners favoring confrontation with the West and reformists seeking diplomacy. The supreme leader holds ultimate authority over key decisions, including matters of war, peace, and the nuclear program. Currently, a provisional governing council consisting of President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, and cleric Ayatollah Ali Reza Arafi is managing the country during this critical period. The Foreign Minister is Abbas Aragh.

A war launched by the US and Israel on Iran has rapidly escalated, spreading across the Middle East. On Saturday, Iran struck the Fairmont hotel in Dubai's Palm Jumeirah area, causing a fire and injuring four people. The attack on the Dubai hotel is part of a wider conflict that has sparked anxiety and concern throughout the region, with reports of explosions in Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait. The initial US-Israeli attack on Iran appears to be the catalyst for the escalating regional conflict. The reasons for the initial attack were not specified in this report.

On February 28, 2026, Iran confirmed retaliatory attacks on US assets located in Gulf Arab states, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, following a joint US-Israeli attack on Iran. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility, stating that all US and Israeli military targets in the Middle East were struck. Bahrain reported an attack targeting the US Navy's 5th Fleet headquarters, while Kuwait experienced explosions near the US military's Central Command headquarters. Qatar's Defense Ministry stated it intercepted missiles before they reached Qatari territory. The UAE reported at least one death in Abu Dhabi after intercepting missiles launched from Iran.

Iran launched missiles and drones targeting Israel and US military installations in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar in response to recent attacks by the US and Israel. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated the action was in defense of the homeland. The UAE and Iraq closed their airspace, and shrapnel from an Iranian missile killed one person in the UAE. Israel issued a nationwide warning and activated its missile defense systems to intercept incoming projectiles. There were initially few reports of damage or injuries in Israel.

A fire at a hotel in Dubai's Palm Jumeirah area injured four people following a reported loud explosion on Saturday. The incident occurred amidst Iranian retaliatory strikes in the Middle East, though authorities have not explicitly confirmed a connection. The Dubai Media Office stated the fire was contained and the site secured, emphasizing public safety. Authorities are urging calm and advising the public to rely on official information sources. Emergency response teams responded to the incident, the cause of which remains unconfirmed by Dubai officials.