Yemen’s government says Houthi attack on al-Makha kills at least four

Yemen's internationally recognized government reports that Iran-backed Houthis attacked the Red Sea port city of al-Makha on Friday, firing six ballistic missiles. The government states the attack killed at least four civilians and set several fishing boats ablaze, though an unnamed military official cited eight deaths, including two security personnel. The Houthis claim they targeted military buildups, weapons, and warships belonging to Saudi-backed forces and "mercenaries" in al-Makha, destroying boats and weapons. This escalation occurs amidst rising regional tensions, with the Houthis also claiming to have targeted an Aramco facility in Najran, Saudi Arabia, with a drone in response to alleged Saudi airspace violations.

Yemen's government has reported that four crew members, three Pakistani and one Indonesian, were killed in an attack on a small cargo ship in the Red Sea. The ship was reportedly struck by three ballistic missiles south of the port of Mocha, causing a fire. Yemen's government suspects the Iran-backed Houthis carried out the attack, which, if confirmed, would be the first deadly strike on a vessel by the group since the US and Israel began a conflict against Iran. The Houthis have not admitted responsibility for the attack. This incident occurs amid heightened regional tensions and follows the collapse of a truce in Yemen's civil war.

Three Pakistani nationals were among six people killed in an attack by Houthi rebels on a ship in the Bab el-Mandeb strait off Yemen. Pakistan's Foreign Minister condemned the attack, highlighting its threat to maritime security. This incident occurs amidst escalating Houthi strikes in the Red Sea and against Saudi Arabia, raising fears of a renewed civil war in Yemen and a wider regional conflict. Separately, Turkey condemned Colombia's decision to recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, calling it a violation of international law and an attempt to legitimize Israel's occupation. The United Nations considers the Golan Heights part of Syria.

Negotiations between Iran and the US over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have stalled due to new, competing demands, impacting oil prices. Iran has presented six conditions, including an end to US threats, lifting sanctions, and compensation for "imposed wars," while stating it is negotiating directly with Oman for future management of the strait. Conversely, US President Donald Trump has demanded compensation from Iran for decades of alleged damages and deaths linked to Iranian actions. These escalatory demands have raised doubts about prospects for a broader diplomatic settlement, with experts suggesting wider peace talks are unlikely until the Hormuz issue is resolved. Oil prices have surged as a result of the ongoing friction and fading hopes for an agreement.

Iran announced that a deal with Oman to establish new shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz is in its final stages. However, Iran reiterated that the waterway will only reopen after the United States meets unspecified conditions. A US official previously indicated that an agreement was close and could lead to the reopening of the strait, which previously handled a significant portion of global oil and LNG shipments before being blocked by Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that the agreement would outline new lanes for when the strait reopens, contingent on US actions. He also noted that Iran is not directly negotiating with the US, but messages are being exchanged through intermediaries.

Israel has rejected a 15-point plan proposed by former US President Donald Trump concerning Gaza. Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that the Israeli military will not withdraw from Gaza until Hamas is "genuinely" disarmed. This decision comes amidst ongoing discussions regarding a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, with Oman reporting positive talks with Iran, though a breakthrough is not yet clear. Separately, the Pentagon released a fifth batch of documents related to Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP). An Indian-flagged ship was sunk off the coast of Yemen, with all 14 crew members safely rescued. Qatar indicated that US-Iran mediation efforts are continuing, but denied plans for direct talks.

Iran has leveraged the ongoing conflict to gain influence over the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, and Pakistan are developing a new regional security framework to counter Tehran's increased leverage. While Iran seeks to control passage and impose transit fees through Hormuz, the United States rejects these conditions, aiming for unimpeded commercial shipping. Negotiations between Iran and Oman regarding the Strait's reopening are ongoing, but disagreements persist over territorial water control and transit payments, which pose challenges for international shipping companies due to US sanctions. The central issue remains who will dictate the rules governing the Gulf.

President Donald Trump has indicated a shift in US strategy towards Iran, prioritizing economic pressure over new military strikes. This approach involves relying on sanctions and a naval blockade, which Trump believes are significantly impacting Iran's financial stability, leading to high inflation and difficulties in paying its troops. The US is "semi-negotiating" with Tehran, monitoring the economic toll of these measures. Trump also noted that stabilizing oil prices has eased the economic strain on American consumers. These remarks coincide with ongoing mediated talks by Oman aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, though Iran insists the US must alter its behavior, including lifting the naval blockade, before a full reopening occurs.

Iran is not immediately threatened by a new trilateral defense pact between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkiye, according to analysts. The agreement, signed in Mecca, states that an attack on one signatory is an attack on all. Iranian officials are primarily focusing on the pact as a sign of a diminishing US security role in the region, viewing it as a step towards a new regional order based on cooperation among states. While some analysts believe the pact could eventually lead to coordinated pressure on Iran, particularly concerning regional conflicts, others see it as a symbolic development and a counterweight to the Abraham Accords. Iran's Foreign Minister alluded to self-reliance and brotherhood without directly mentioning the pact.

Iran has announced that a deal with Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is nearing finalization. Reports indicate that under this proposed agreement, Tehran would control inbound traffic. An understanding has been reached on the coordinates for a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. Separately, Donald Trump has responded to media reports about US weapon shortages, stating the US has substantial munitions and is increasing manufacturing, while vowing to prosecute those who leaked such information. The article also mentions overnight Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon that injured eight people.

Iran, Oman, and the US are reportedly close to an interim agreement aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for global oil supplies. Negotiations, mediated by Oman, seek to restore a June ceasefire, resolve shipping disputes, and create space for broader talks on Iran's nuclear program. US President Trump expressed optimism about a deal being imminent, while Iran denies direct talks with Washington, stating discussions are with Oman regarding the strait's management. Tensions remain high, with a recent incident involving a struck cargo ship and significantly disrupted commercial traffic. The core of the negotiations involves who controls the strait and Iran's potential to impose fees, with mediators working to balance shipping resumption with the security concerns of Iran and Oman.

Iran is reportedly seeking to bar US and Israeli ships from the Strait of Hormuz and demand compensation from "hostile countries" for its use, as part of a proposed deal with Oman to manage the waterway. This agreement is seen as crucial for reopening Hormuz and resuming energy flows, which have been impacted since alleged attacks by the US and Israel on Iran in February. The proposed deal, currently under review in Iran's parliament, also includes a ban on Israeli-related cargo and a fee structure for services. This development has led to concerns from former US officials about escalating demands. Separately, Iranian naval forces reportedly struck "hostile targets" near the Strait of Hormuz, contributing to a rise in oil prices and a fall in stocks.

Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen launched at least 12 missile attacks on Hadramout and Marib provinces on Friday, following Thursday's drone and missile strikes on Saudi-led coalition and Yemeni government military sites, which killed at least 30 soldiers. A senior Saudi official reported that a Houthi attack on southern Saudi Arabia on Thursday wounded 11 civilians. Intelligence suggests the Houthis, with Iranian support, may target energy infrastructure, ports, and airports. These attacks, the deadliest in years, mark an escalation in the regional conflict, intensified since the US-Israel war on Iran began. The Houthis claim these actions are in response to the Yemeni government coordinating with Saudi Arabia for a potential ground offensive.

Yemen's military launched attacks on Houthi rebels in response to recent strikes, marking a significant escalation since a 2022 truce, with the UN warning of increased conflict risk. In Turkey, a parliamentary committee approved a draft law aimed at advancing peace with Kurdish militants, including a conditional pardon-like mechanism for former fighters, contingent on the Kurdistan Workers' Party disarming and disbanding. The bill is expected to be debated in the general assembly next week.

The United Arab Emirates stated that Iran targeted an ADNOC tanker in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. The UAE foreign ministry condemned the incident as a "hostile Iranian attack" that did not result in casualties. This event occurs as Iran has imposed an effective blockade on the strait and is reportedly in final stages of talks with Oman regarding its future management. ADNOC reported that 15 of its vessels have been attacked in Hormuz since the start of the war, with three attacked this week alone. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital shipping lane, previously carrying about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas.

President Trump announced he would halt threatened strikes against Iran, stating a deal was near that would include the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran dismissed this, calling Trump's comments "psychological operations." The strategically vital Strait of Hormuz remains under Iranian control, with ships only able to pass if permitted by Iran's armed forces. Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince spoke with Trump, emphasizing dialogue to reduce escalation. Previous attempts at an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have failed, with Iran maintaining control over passage arrangements. The conflict has also impacted the Red Sea, though tensions were calmer on Sunday.

Analysts suggest President Trump's approach to the Iran conflict has become a repetitive cycle of threats and withdrawals, leading to ridicule. Over five months, Trump has repeatedly threatened military action against Iran, only to back down, often citing potential negotiations or appeals from allies. This pattern, described as "Groundhog Day," has been observed multiple times, including a recent instance where a "massive" attack was called off. Critics argue Trump's messaging lacks strategy and demonstrates ignorance of Iran's leadership, potentially impacting upcoming elections. The article highlights the resilience of Iran's regime, attributing it to a deep understanding of its internal dynamics and leadership.

Rival Iranian political factions are reportedly using the name of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei to advance their own positions and undermine opponents, amidst ongoing questions about his active governance. Competing accounts have emerged regarding President Masoud Pezeshkian's interactions with Khamenei. One report claims a cleric stated Khamenei would accept Pezeshkian's resignation, which Pezeshkian's office denied. Another report alleged a brief, obscured meeting between Pezeshkian and Khamenei, contrasting with Pezeshkian's public description of a longer, cordial encounter. Experts suggest this dynamic reflects a power struggle within Iran's ruling system, where Khamenei's name is invoked to legitimize factions and consolidate power in the absence of clear leadership. Mojtaba Khamenei has not been publicly seen or heard since succeeding his father.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched multiple ballistic missiles targeting US forces in the Middle East, which were intercepted by US military forces. US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported the attempted surprise attack, with five interceptions occurring over Jordan, where the IRGC claimed to have targeted a US airbase and Central Command center. The IRGC stated these actions are a continuation of resistance against perceived threats and illegal actions by American forces. This escalation occurs as Iran has also struck three ships in the Strait of Hormuz and rejected Oman's proposal for managing the waterway. The attacks follow a period of US-Iran bombings and could impact ongoing mediation efforts, despite President Trump having previously called off bombing campaigns and suggesting talks were underway.

Donald Trump claimed a deal has been reached for Hamas to disarm and Israeli forces to withdraw from Gaza, though obstacles remain. Iran launched drone strikes targeting US bases in Kuwait, resulting in a fatality and significant damage to a Chinese firm's building, in retaliation for recent US attacks. Saudi Arabia announced a 14-nation maritime defense alliance to secure navigation around the Bab al-Mandab strait. Meanwhile, Jordan's air defenses intercepted missiles from Iran, and Egypt is analyzing drone fragments from a strike on one of its ports. Analysts anticipate large profits for major oil companies due to impeded petroleum shipments amid regional conflict.

Jordan's air defenses intercepted five missiles launched from Iran on Thursday morning, according to Jordan's state-run Petra news agency. This occurred hours after the U.S. military reported completing a significant wave of strikes against Iran in retaliation for an earlier Iranian missile attack on a U.S. base in Jordan. No casualties were reported in Jordan from the missile interception. The U.S. Central Command stated their strikes targeted dozens of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps sites, including command centers and missile facilities. Iran's state media reported casualties from strikes on Qeshm island. These events follow joint U.S.-Saudi strikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq and separate drone strikes that caused fires on two natural gas vessels in Egypt.

Jordan's air defenses intercepted five missiles launched from Iran early Wednesday, with the Jordanian military confirming they were destroyed. This occurred shortly after the U.S. military announced it had downed an Iranian missile barrage targeting American forces in the Middle East, ending a brief lull in hostilities. U.S. Central Command stated that all Iranian missiles aimed at U.S. forces were intercepted. In conjunction with Saudi Arabia, U.S. forces also struck sites in Iraq used by Iran-backed militias for launching attacks. The U.S. warned that further aggression against American troops or Saudi energy infrastructure would prompt additional action.

The US military conducted "heavy" strikes against Iran on Wednesday in retaliation for attempted Iranian ballistic missile attacks on American forces. Centcom stated these strikes targeted "dozens" of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets in response to Iran firing missiles at US bases in Jordan and ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. These actions follow recent US-Saudi strikes on Iranian proxies in Iraq and come after a period of relative calm during which talks for a diplomatic solution were reportedly underway, though Iran denied discussions were happening. All Iranian missiles fired on Tuesday were intercepted.

US and Saudi forces have launched attacks on Iran-aligned groups in Iraq. This action is in retaliation for what the US describes as "30 IRGC-directed" drone attacks over the past 30 days, which included strikes on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities. The US also accused Iran of firing multiple ballistic missiles in an attempted surprise attack on its forces at a base in Jordan. These developments occur as Saudi Arabia reports intercepting drones and Iran warns of taking "any action" to maintain its control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia faces a dilemma regarding its involvement in the escalating regional conflict between the US and Iran. While the US and Saudi Arabia recently conducted strikes against Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces, Saudi Arabia is attempting to avoid a full-scale war. This cautious approach is driven by Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman's "Vision 2030" initiative, which aims to diversify the Saudi economy away from oil, attract foreign investment, and develop domestic industries. These ambitious economic goals, including the construction of vulnerable infrastructure like data centers, are jeopardized by regional instability. Iran's ongoing drone and missile attacks on countries like Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain, alongside targeting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, contribute to the widening conflict, further complicating Saudi Arabia's strategic choices.