Tuesday briefing: How the conflict in Iran shattered the Gulf state image of peace and luxury

On day 14 of the US-Israel conflict (March 13, 2026), tensions escalated as Israel launched heavy strikes on Tehran, Iran, following retaliatory attacks by Iranian allies across Gulf states. Iran's new Supreme Leader issued a warning demanding the closure of US bases in the region to halt further attacks. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil transport, is now closed, causing oil prices to surge. Iran claims control of the strait, banning US- and Israel-linked ships. Civilian casualties in Iran are reported to be over 1,300. Iran has also launched attacks on Gulf countries hosting US military assets, targeting oil tankers and facilities.

Iran significantly escalated attacks on civilian infrastructure and transport networks across the Gulf on Wednesday, targeting commercial ships and Dubai's international airport. These actions occurred as US and Israeli warplanes launched new strikes. The UAE, particularly Dubai, has borne the brunt of these attacks, facing an existential threat as foreigners flee. The escalation has caused oil prices to rise above $100 a barrel, with Iran threatening a long "war of attrition." Meanwhile, a review revealed the US defense secretary has voiced extreme antipathy towards Iran for years. A bill addressing the situation has passed the House, but lacks the necessary votes in the Senate due to filibuster rules.

On March 12, 2026, two foreign oil tankers were attacked in Iraq's al-Faw port amidst ongoing conflict. Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia intercepted Iranian missiles and drones. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated three conditions for peace: recognition of Iran's rights, war reparations, and international guarantees against future aggression. The events occurred within the context of a larger war involving Iran, with the attacks and conditions highlighting the escalating tensions and potential pathways to resolution. The motivations behind the tanker attacks remain unclear, but they contribute to the instability in the region.

Iran has escalated attacks on energy infrastructure and transport in the Middle East, setting ablaze two tankers in Iraqi waters. This action is part of a broader campaign to disrupt energy markets, contributing to oil prices reaching $100 a barrel. Conflicting reports have emerged regarding Iran's stance on allowing India-flagged tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil trade. While one Indian source indicated passage would be permitted, Reuters reported an Iranian source denying this. The attacks and uncertainty surrounding tanker passage are impacting global oil markets.

The global energy crisis, exacerbated by conflict in the Middle East as of March 13, 2026, is creating winners and losers as oil prices surge. The potential closure of strategic chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz threatens global supply chains and raises the risk of inflation in Europe and Asia. The article states that finding alternative energy sources will be difficult if the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran continues. Russia is positioned to benefit significantly from rising oil prices, bolstering its economy despite Western sanctions. The crisis highlights the world's dependence on specific energy routes and the potential for a reshaped global energy landscape.

The global energy crisis, exacerbated by conflict in the Middle East as of March 12, 2026, is creating winners and losers worldwide. With strategic chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz potentially closed, countries in Europe and Asia face increased supply risks and inflation. The conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran threatens to disrupt established energy routes, making alternatives difficult to secure. Russia is positioned to benefit significantly from rising oil prices, bolstering its economy despite existing Western sanctions. The longer the conflict persists, the more drastically the global energy landscape is expected to change.

Recent Iranian attacks in the Gulf have expanded beyond traditional oil and gas infrastructure to include data centers, signaling a shift in targeting strategic assets. On March 1st, drone attacks damaged three Amazon Web Services data centers in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. These attacks suggest a deliberate effort to undermine the Gulf's post-oil future, particularly its ambitions in artificial intelligence. The region's AI investments, supported by partnerships and cloud providers, rely on cheap and reliable power, which is now threatened. This new focus on data centers poses a risk to the Gulf's economic diversification efforts.

The Middle East is experiencing escalating conflict, with a joint US-Israeli aerial assault on Iran followed by the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other Iranian leaders. The US preemptive strike was reportedly triggered by concerns over potential Iranian attacks on US troops. This conflict has stranded over 100,000 Britons in the Gulf due to airspace closures and risky overland evacuation routes. In UK news, Scotland has legalized hydrolysis as an environmentally friendly alternative to traditional burials. Meanwhile, UK programs supporting nature and climate protection in developing countries are facing budget cuts. In UK politics, Nigel Farage is facing accusations of election denial following a recent byelection.

On March 2, 2026, Iran's retaliatory strikes against US assets in the Gulf region entered their third day, escalating fears of a prolonged conflict. Explosions were reported in Dubai, Doha, and Kuwait, with Kuwaiti air defenses intercepting drones near residential areas. Iran stated the attacks were in response to ongoing US-Israeli strikes on Iran, targeting US military assets and impacting civilian areas across Gulf cities. Bahrain activated air raid alerts and closed a major bridge. Casualties have been reported in Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar, while US-Israeli attacks have resulted in significant casualties in Iran and Israel. The US, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE jointly condemned Iran's attacks and affirmed their right to self-defense.

Multiple Gulf nations, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait, reported missile and drone attacks on Saturday. These attacks occurred despite an earlier apology from the Iranian president to Gulf countries, where he stated they would not be targeted unless strikes originated from their territory. Hours later, Iran declared its intent to continue strikes on sites within Gulf countries it considered to be at the disposal of its enemies. The UAE's president acknowledged the country was in "a period of war." Dubai authorities reported one death, a Pakistani national, resulting from debris from an aerial interception. Kuwait's national oil company announced a precautionary cut to production.

In a recent video address, Donald Trump vowed to avenge the deaths of three American soldiers following joint US-Israel strikes on Iran, accusing Iran of "waging war against civilization." He stated that there would "likely more" US troop deaths before the conflict with Iran ends. Trump's critics are pressuring the White House for a clearer plan regarding Iran, warning that a lack of strategy risks a prolonged conflict. The situation is developing, and analysts express concern about the potential for the US to be drawn into a long-lasting engagement. Separately, due to ongoing events, airlines including Emirates, Etihad Airways, and Qatar Airways have cancelled hundreds of flights, with thousands of flights cancelled over the weekend.

Iranian missiles struck multiple locations across the Arab Gulf states, including Dubai and Abu Dhabi, marking a significant escalation of regional conflict. The attacks damaged infrastructure, including airports and hotels in Dubai, demonstrating Iran's capability to strike US allies in the region. These strikes, according to analysts, aim to deter Gulf states from supporting potential US or Israeli actions against Iran. The attacks highlight the vulnerability of Gulf nations and underscore Iran's willingness to "internationalize the battlefield," bringing the conflict directly to its neighbors. This development is likely to strengthen Arab rulers' support for potential US-Israeli strikes.

Oil prices surged after the reported death of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in US-Israeli air strikes, escalating conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit route, experienced near standstill, impacting tanker traffic. This disruption raised concerns about supply shortages and increased import costs, particularly for Asian economies like China, India, Japan, and South Korea, which heavily rely on oil imports. Benchmark Brent crude jumped significantly, reflecting market fears of sustained supply disruption. Iran retaliated with attacks on US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, further escalating geopolitical tensions in the region.

Airspace closures across the Middle East, triggered by attacks between America/Israel and Iran, caused widespread flight disruptions, stranding or diverting hundreds of thousands of travelers. Several countries, including Israel, Qatar, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain, closed their airspace, leading to the suspension of operations at key international airports in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha. Major airlines like Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad cancelled thousands of flights, impacting an estimated 90,000 passengers daily passing through these hubs. Over 3,400 flights were cancelled across seven major Middle Eastern airports on Sunday. Some airports and landmarks in the region sustained damage, resulting in injuries and at least one reported death. The closure of Iranian airspace was extended until Tuesday morning.

On March 1, 2026, air traffic in the Middle East experienced significant disruption. According to Flightradar24, over 3,400 flights were canceled within the preceding 48 hours. The cancellations affected seven airports across the region. Airports impacted included those located in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain. The reason for the widespread flight cancellations was not specified in the report.

A war launched by the US and Israel on Iran has rapidly escalated, spreading across the Middle East. On Saturday, Iran struck the Fairmont hotel in Dubai's Palm Jumeirah area, causing a fire and injuring four people. The attack on the Dubai hotel is part of a wider conflict that has sparked anxiety and concern throughout the region, with reports of explosions in Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait. The initial US-Israeli attack on Iran appears to be the catalyst for the escalating regional conflict. The reasons for the initial attack were not specified in this report.

Following US and Israeli strikes on Iran on Saturday, February 28, 2026, and subsequent Iranian retaliation, at least eight Middle Eastern countries, including Iran, Israel, Jordan, and Qatar, closed their airspace. This widespread closure caused significant disruption to global air travel, forcing airlines to cancel or divert flights. The conflict, triggered by attacks on Iran's missile industry and navy, led Iran to retaliate against Israel and Gulf Arab states hosting US military assets. Russia's Ministry of Transport and Air India have suspended flights to the region. The airspace closures impact flights between Europe and Asia, as Russian and Ukrainian airspace is already restricted.

Iran launched missiles and drones targeting Israel and US military installations in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar in response to recent attacks by the US and Israel. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated the action was in defense of the homeland. The UAE and Iraq closed their airspace, and shrapnel from an Iranian missile killed one person in the UAE. Israel issued a nationwide warning and activated its missile defense systems to intercept incoming projectiles. There were initially few reports of damage or injuries in Israel.

Following reported strikes in Iran by the US and Israel, Australia's National Security Committee is convening. Foreign Minister Penny Wong stated Australia was not informed in advance of the strikes and has updated travel advice for Israel, Lebanon, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. A crisis center has been activated to provide consular support to Australians in the region, and a registration portal has opened for Australians in Iran and Israel. Wong emphasized Iran's destabilizing role in the region and stated that Australia did not participate in the strikes. The Australian government advises Australians in the affected region to follow travel advice and seek safety, acknowledging potential difficulties with repatriation due to airspace closures.

A fire at a hotel in Dubai's Palm Jumeirah area injured four people following a reported loud explosion on Saturday. The incident occurred amidst Iranian retaliatory strikes in the Middle East, though authorities have not explicitly confirmed a connection. The Dubai Media Office stated the fire was contained and the site secured, emphasizing public safety. Authorities are urging calm and advising the public to rely on official information sources. Emergency response teams responded to the incident, the cause of which remains unconfirmed by Dubai officials.