IEA announces release of 400 million barrels of oil. But is it enough?

EXPLAINERThe global energy watchdog has pledged the largest release in its history from strategic oil reserves to calm volatile markets amid the war on Iran. But is the ‘one-shot’ tactic worth it?A dhow sails in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz off Khasab in Oman's northern Musandam peninsula on June 25, 2025 [File: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP]Published On 13 Mar 2026The International Energy Agency (IEA), a global energy watchdog, with several of the wealthiest countries as member nations, has announced the largest release of government oil reserves in its history, two weeks after the United States and Israel started their war on Iran with strikes on Tehran.In retaliatory attacks, Tehran has launched strikes on Israel as well as US military assets and energy facilities in Gulf countries, and has closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery in the global oil supply chain, driving up crude prices to more than $100 per barrel.“The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” the IEA said in its monthly market report.While the IEA’s 32 member nations appeared hesitant earlier in the week to tap into the strategic reserves, they ultimately announced they would release nearly 400 million barrels of emergency crude. That’s one-third of the grouping’s total holding of 1.2 billion barrels of government reserves.Previously, IEA member nations have released oil from emergency reserves five times: During the 1990-1991 Gulf War; after Hurricane Katrina in 2005; during the Libyan civil war in 2011; and twice after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.But is this latest release sufficient to calm down the disrupted market?Security personnel ride on motorbikes, on a day of a protest marking the annual al-Quds Day (Jerusalem Day) on the last Friday of the holy month of Ramadan in Tehran, Iran, on March 13, 2026 [Alaa Al Marjani/Reuters]What has the IEA announced?The energy watchdog argued that the supply shock triggered by Iran’s strikes on cargo vessels and its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz meant energy markets are facing a worse crisis than during the Gulf War of 1991 and Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.Before the US and Israel attacked Tehran – and assassinated Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – on February 28, Brent crude was trading at about $65 per barrel. Now, it is above $100, and Iranian leaders have warned countries that it will not allow “one litre of oil” to pass the Hormuz Strait if attacks continue, and that the price could go above $200 per barrel.Earlier this week, former IMF economist Olivier Blanchard was quoted by news outlet Business Insider that this could be possible if tankers carrying oil cannot be protected from Iranian attacks. “I find it hard not to have as a central scenario where oil prices will remain very high for a long time, higher than the market current prices,” Blanchard said on Thursday.The IEA’s announcement of a plan to release 400 million barrels of oil is much higher than the 2022 release of 182 million barrels of oil by the group’s members after Russia invaded Ukraine.“Energy security is the founding mandate of the IEA, and I am pleased that IEA members are showing strong solidarity in taking decisive action together,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the Paris-based IEA.Birol applauded the member nations’ decision to contribute to the release from their strategic reserves. “This is a major action aiming to alleviate the immediate impacts of the disruption in markets,” Birol said. “But, to be clear, the most important thing for a return to stable flows of oil and gas is the resumption of transit through the Strait of Hormuz.”About one-fifth of the world’s oil is transported through the Strait of Hormuz. That’s more than 20 million barrels daily on average. And coordinated IEA releases are usually spread over weeks or months, meaning only a portion of the 400 million planned barrels will be released in the short term.The IEA has not yet provided a precise timeline for releasing the oil.Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow with the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, London, said, ultimately, the IEA release “will not make a large material difference” in the ongoing crisis.“It really depends on the pace of the release. It is not clear yet what the schedule is,” Quilliam told Al Jazeera. By some calculations, such relief could evaporate as soon as three weeks.“It’s a one-shot solution. It’s a high-risk strategy,” he said. “So, once that all is finished, there is no real alternative.”After new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the slain ayatollah, struck an even more defiant tone in his first address on Thursday, oil prices shot up yet again.Israeli soldiers walk by a billboard commissioned by evangelical group Friends of Zion, which displays a picture of US President Donald Trump with the words ‘Thank you God & Donald Trump’, in Tel Aviv, Israel, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, on March 12, 2026 [Nir Elias/Reuters]What has the US announced?The US created its own strategic petroleum reserve in 1975 after the Arab oil embargo exposed Washington’s energy security vulnerabilities.It has the world’s largest reserve of countries which publicly report such reserves, with a maximum capacity of about 720 million barrels.At present, Washington only holds about 415 million barrels of crude, stored in underground salt caverns along the Gulf Coast in Texas and Louisiana, as stocks have been depleted by Russia’s war on Ukraine.Only China is estimated to have a larger stockpile currently, but Beijing’s holdings are not made public.The US is currently the world’s largest oil producer and consumer, and has confirmed that it will release 172 million barrels of oil from its strategic petroleum reserve as its contribution to coordinated efforts with the IEA.US President Donald Trump told a local news channel on Thursday that the US government would tap the strategic reserve, in its boldest bid yet to stabilise prices in the energy sector, and “then we’ll fill it up”.Trump has previously criticised former President Joe Biden’s administration for tapping the reserve to bring down petrol prices.Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said the release would begin next week and take roughly 120 days for delivery. He added that the government would then work to replace about 200 million barrels in the next year.Will this plug the oil shortage straight away?No.“Oil molecules move fast, and so do markets. What matters is how fast the released volumes actually move,” Maksim Sonin, an energy executive who works with Stanford University’s Center for Fuels of the Future, told Al Jazeera.“Unless the underlying problem is solved, no release can fix the market,” he added.Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, added: “While the IEA has decided to release 400 million barrels from the group’s strategic oil reserves, with commitments from Japan, South Korea, France, Germany, the UK, and the US announced thus far, the market impact of the move may prove limited.“Supplies will be constrained by the pace at which oil can be extracted from reserves.”Trump and his officials have changed their position on the endgame from the hostilities against Iran, frequently by the time the sun sets in the other part of the world. The US president, however, insists that the conflict is a blip and not another drawn-out war.“But the fact that they’ve rolled in with the IEA, and they’re releasing 172 million barrels, is significant,” Quilliam told Al Jazeera. “If we get beyond that timeframe [of ending the fighting and days that the strategic oil reserves can cover], what is the situation gonna be like?”People queue to refuel their vehicles at a petrol station in Chennai on March 12, 2026 as an oil price spike caused by the war in the Middle East causes exasperation at petrol pumps across Asia, where many economies are heavily dependent on fossil fuel imports [R Satish Babu/AFP]How quickly can the oil be released?Not very. On paper, the US claims it can release 4.4 million barrels a day; however, its actual output is much smaller, and deliveries could take weeks to reach after a drawdown is signed.