Qatar warns Iran war could halt Gulf energy exports ‘within weeks’

Qatar's Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi has warned that a prolonged war with Iran could halt Gulf energy exports within weeks, affecting global economies. The warning comes as Qatar halted liquefied natural gas (LNG) production in response to Iranian missile and drone attacks on the country and its neighbors. LNG production from Qatar accounts for about 20% of global supply and plays a key role in balancing Asian and European markets' demand. Al-Kaabi stated that if the war continues, GDP growth worldwide will be impacted, leading to higher energy prices, shortages, and chain reactions among factories. He also expects all Gulf exporters to call force majeure, freeing them from liability or obligations due to extraordinary events. The minister estimated it would take Qatar weeks to months to return to normal deliveries even if the war ended immediately.

A disruption to Qatar's LNG output, reportedly due to Iranian drone strikes and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has triggered a surge in Asian gas prices to a three-year high. Qatar, a major LNG exporter, halted production at its Ras Laffan plant on Monday, prompting Asian buyers to seek replacement cargoes and some industries to reduce consumption. The incident highlights Asia's vulnerability due to its heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels, particularly from the Middle East. Analysts suggest this disruption underscores the need for the region to accelerate its transition to renewable energy sources. The rising spot LNG prices in Asia reached approximately US$23.80 per million British thermal units on Friday.

Iranians gathered in Tehran and other cities for Friday prayers, the first since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran seven days prior. The worshippers, many holding portraits of the recently assassinated Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, chanted anti-US and anti-Israeli slogans. The gatherings took place during Ramadan, despite heavy bombardment on the capital. Iranian media shared footage of crowds heading to the Grand Mosque of Imam Khomeini in Tehran, mourning Khamenei and expressing support for the government. Similar scenes were reported in other cities across Iran, including Ilam, Borujerd and Zahedan.

Recent US and Israeli strikes in Iran target a broader range of sites than previous operations, aiming to weaken the Iranian military and government. The US Central Command reports hitting over 2,000 targets in less than a week, while Israel claims hundreds of strikes across the country, from Tehran to southeastern regions. Targets include Iranian leaders, military bases, weapons factories, state media, and security forces. The extent of the damage is unclear, but one monitoring group describes it as a significant blow, though the emergency leadership retains coercive abilities. Iranian government sources report at least 1,230 deaths, including many children killed in a school bombing. Independent verification of the death toll is difficult due to communication issues.

In March 2026, the head of US Central Command reported that US B-2 bombers conducted strikes against Iranian ballistic missile launchers. The strikes involved the deployment of dozens of 2,000-pound bombs targeting buried launchers. According to the US Central Command, these actions resulted in a 90% reduction in Iranian missile attacks. The commander also stated that an Iranian "drone carrier ship" was currently on fire after being struck. The location of the strikes and the targeted ship were not specified in the report. The reason for the US military action was not stated in the report.

As of March 5, 2026, a war in Iran has sparked a global oil and gas crisis, potentially benefiting the United States and other Western exporters. The crisis stems from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for oil and LNG, and attacks on energy infrastructure in Gulf countries. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared the Strait "closed" after several tankers were damaged, causing oil and gas prices to surge. Approximately 150 ships are stranded, and about 10% of the world's container ships are caught in backups, potentially leading to cargo pile-ups in Europe and Asia. Qatar's energy infrastructure has also been attacked, further exacerbating the crisis.

A UK government rescue flight scheduled to depart from Muscat, Oman on Wednesday to repatriate stranded British nationals was delayed due to operational issues related to boarding passengers. The chartered plane is now expected to leave on Thursday. This comes as 138,000 UK citizens have registered for assistance, with a majority located in the UAE, following escalating conflict in the Middle East, including missile strikes in Dubai. Approximately 1,000 Britons have already returned home on commercial flights. Two additional chartered flights are planned for this week. Many UK citizens were caught in the region during layovers or vacations as the conflict intensified, impacting travel and daily life.

Israeli air strikes targeting Iranian security forces continued for a fifth day, as part of a US-Israeli assault that began on Saturday. The attacks struck multiple locations including Tehran, Qom, and Isfahan, damaging residential areas and buildings associated with the Basij and Iran's internal security command. The death toll has surpassed 1,000, with hundreds of children hospitalized and thousands wounded. The IAEA reported visible damage to buildings near the Isfahan nuclear site, but stated that nuclear materials were unaffected and there was no radiological risk. Due to the ongoing attacks, the funeral for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been postponed, citing logistical issues. Iran has launched counterattacks and warned of the destruction of military and economic infrastructure across the Middle East.

Recent US and Israeli airstrikes in Iran have resulted in significant damage, including to the UNESCO-listed Golestan Palace in Tehran. The strikes, which began on Saturday, have targeted numerous government and military sites, reportedly killing nearly 800 people. Iranian media reports that the Golestan Palace sustained damage to windows, doors, and mirrors due to the reverberations from blasts targeting Arag Square. UNESCO confirmed the damage and stated that it had provided the coordinates of World Heritage sites to all parties involved to prevent such incidents. The US military claims to have hit nearly 2,000 targets inside Iran since the operation began.

President Trump stated that individuals the U.S. considered potential future leaders of Iran died in recent strikes. The statement was made amidst uncertainty regarding Iran's future leadership. Trump acknowledged the possibility of Iran ending up with a leader as detrimental as the current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The timing and location of the strikes were not specified in the provided context. The reason for the U.S. considering these individuals as potential leaders was also not detailed.

As of March 3, 2026, the Middle East is experiencing escalating violence following coordinated US and Israeli attacks on Iran. Key government and symbolic sites in Tehran have been damaged, resulting in over 600 deaths, including Supreme Leader Khamenei. The US has warned of further strikes intended to cripple Iran's military capabilities and halt its nuclear ambitions. In response, Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, threatening any vessels attempting passage, and has launched attacks on US and allied targets across the region, including energy facilities. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to have significant global economic consequences.

The Middle East conflict intensified as Israel and the US launched strikes against Iran, targeting command facilities, state offices, and missile sites. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Israel and US interests across the Gulf region. The escalating violence has resulted in hundreds of deaths and billions of dollars in damage, primarily in Iran, raising concerns about a global economic crisis due to soaring energy prices. US President Trump stated he rejected Iran's attempt to negotiate and claimed significant damage to Iranian infrastructure. Iran denied seeking negotiations and called on the UN Security Council to intervene, while threatening further retaliation against the US and Israel. The conflict expanded with attacks on key Iranian sites, including a building used by the committee that chooses the Supreme Leader's successor.

Footage from across Iran has shown the scale of strikes in several cities as the conflict reaches its fourth day. The US and Israel launched attacks on Saturday, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Videos shared on social media, verified by the BBC and news agencies, depict multiple explosions and destruction across the country. The US has also released video footage showing military targets being hit. Iran has responded with a wave of attacks across the region. The attack is believed to be retaliation for the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei, but details on the motivations behind the strike are not yet clear.

Amid escalating conflict and soaring shipping costs, China has called for the protection of vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The strait, a critical route for global energy supplies, has been effectively closed following missile attacks between the US/Israel and Iran, disrupting approximately 20% of global seaborne crude oil and gas. China, a major importer of Iranian oil, urged all parties to de-escalate tensions and ensure safe navigation. The closure has choked off energy exports from Middle Eastern producers, leading to potential shortages and price increases, impacting countries like India, Korea, Thailand, and the Philippines. Recent incidents include attacks on tankers in the region, further exacerbating the situation.

Insurance companies have cancelled war risk coverage for vessels in the Middle East Gulf due to the escalating United States/Israel-Iran conflict. The IRGC announced that the Strait of Hormuz was "closed" and any vessel attempting to pass through would be set ablaze. At least five tankers have been damaged, two personnel killed, and around 150 ships are stranded in the area. The disruption has caused oil and European natural gas prices to jump, with Brent crude futures increasing by up to 13%. The conflict has triggered multiple oil and gas shutdowns in the Middle East. Insurers cancelled war risk coverage after vessels were hit by drones and projectiles, leaving tankers damaged or stranded.

In March 2026, amidst ongoing military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, President Trump discussed potential leadership changes in Iran following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination. When asked about a "worst-case scenario," Trump expressed concern that Khamenei's successor could be equally unfavorable to US interests. He suggested the US doesn't want to go through the conflict only to have someone equally bad take over in five years. The US and Israel launched their offensive on February 28, citing the elimination of imminent threats from the Iranian regime as justification, despite international condemnation. Trump has called for Iranian opposition members to take over the government, while other officials downplay regime change as the primary motive.

During a news conference, President Trump addressed the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, following the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. While confident in the military advantage, Trump expressed concern that regime change could result in a leader "as bad as the previous person." He stated the US would like to see a leader who would "bring it back for the people." Trump also cautioned Iranians against protesting, citing the danger posed by the state security apparatus. He claimed Iran was planning to attack first, potentially prompting Israel's involvement. Furthermore, Trump threatened to cut off trade with Spain due to their refusal to allow US strikes on Iran from jointly operated bases.

The United States and Israel have launched a military campaign against Iran, leading to escalating strikes and retaliation. These actions have resulted in casualties, a spike in oil prices, and significant geopolitical shocks. China has strongly condemned the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, an event that has destabilized Tehran. Financial markets have reacted negatively, with futures and Asian shares experiencing a sharp sell-off as the conflict continues. The situation is causing turmoil in the Middle East and raising concerns about a major regional escalation.

Following the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a US-Israeli attack, Pakistan has deployed its military and imposed a three-day curfew in parts of the Gilgit-Baltistan region. At least 24 people were killed and dozens injured on Sunday in clashes between protesters and security forces nationwide, prompting increased security around US diplomatic facilities. The curfew affects the districts of Gilgit, Skardu, and Shigar, where significant casualties occurred. Protesters also attacked UN offices in Skardu, including the UNMOGIP and UNDP, as well as a police station, school, and charity in Gilgit. The UN has stated that the safety of its personnel is a top priority.

Iranian state media confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Sunday, March 1, 2026. Khamenei, who consolidated theocratic power in Iran, led the country into confrontations with Israel and the United States over its nuclear program. The death follows reported US and Israeli strikes on Iran. Damage is visible at Khamenei's official residence in Tehran. Mourning gatherings have been held by government supporters in Tehran and in Beirut, Lebanon. A missile launched from Iran struck Jerusalem, causing damage.

The US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, escalating tensions in the Middle East. Iran has vowed retaliation, drawing regional powers into the conflict. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, and senior cleric Alireza Arafi will lead Iran in the transitional period. Donald Trump expressed willingness to negotiate with the remaining Iranian leadership. Elsewhere, the UK's RAF Akrotiri base in Cyprus was hit by a suspected drone strike, causing minor damage. In the UK, new asylum rules designate refugee status as temporary, lasting 30 months, and the Green Party's membership surpassed 200,000 after a byelection victory. Concerns are also rising about the potential impact of data centers on the UK's greenhouse gas emissions.

In March 2026, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that a planned Israeli attack on Iran influenced the timing of the US military's assault on Tehran. Rubio explained that the US was aware of Israel's impending action and anticipated Iranian retaliation against US interests. To preemptively mitigate potential casualties, the US launched its own strikes. This revelation came as the US military confirmed six service members had died in the conflict following Iranian retaliation, which included drone and missile attacks on US bases. Rubio defended the US-Israeli joint action, arguing it was necessary to thwart an imminent threat, as Iran would have retaliated against the US following the Israeli strike.

Following the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, US officials are reportedly skeptical that a regime change in Iran is likely in the near future. Despite President Trump's call for Iranian patriots to "take back" their country, three US officials familiar with intelligence suggest that Iran's opposition is unlikely to topple the current theocratic government. While not completely ruling out the possibility due to ongoing US and Israeli air strikes and internal unrest, officials consider a near-term regime change improbable. The Iranian President, along with other officials, have temporarily assumed the duties of the supreme leader. The US and Israeli operation aimed to cripple Iran's ballistic missile and nuclear programs, with some US officials suggesting toppling the government as a goal.

Escalating conflict involving Iran and the US/Israeli attacks is disrupting oil and gas supplies in the Middle East, driving up global prices. Iran has launched strikes against oil facilities and shipping in the region, particularly impacting the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for approximately 20% of the world's oil supply. Shipping traffic through the strait has significantly decreased due to safety concerns, with several tankers damaged and at least one fatality reported. Consequently, the price of oil initially surged by over 10%, and experts predict further increases if the conflict continues, potentially reaching $100 per barrel.

Oil prices surged on Monday after the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, prompting retaliatory strikes against US and Israeli military installations in the Middle East. Brent crude rose by 9 percent to $79.41 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate increased by 8.6 percent to $72.79 a barrel. The conflict has disrupted the global energy supply chain, particularly impacting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil tankers. Tankers are accumulating on either side of the strait due to concerns about attacks and insurance. Experts predict a significant price increase if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked, preventing 15 million barrels of crude oil from reaching markets daily.

Oil prices surged after the reported death of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in US-Israeli air strikes, escalating conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit route, experienced near standstill, impacting tanker traffic. This disruption raised concerns about supply shortages and increased import costs, particularly for Asian economies like China, India, Japan, and South Korea, which heavily rely on oil imports. Benchmark Brent crude jumped significantly, reflecting market fears of sustained supply disruption. Iran retaliated with attacks on US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, further escalating geopolitical tensions in the region.

The US and Israel have launched a military campaign against Iran, initiating a new regional conflict. The offensive began Saturday with missile strikes and airstrikes, escalating on Sunday with renewed attacks across Iran. Targets included areas near Tehran's police headquarters, state television, and a defense ministry building. The US President stated the goal is regime change, following the death of Iran's Supreme Leader in an Israeli airstrike. Iran's UN ambassador reported civilian casualties and accused the US and Israel of deliberately targeting civilian areas. The conflict raises concerns about a wider war and regional instability.

On March 1, 2026, Iran launched missile strikes against Israel, including the town of Beit Shemesh, resulting in at least nine deaths and 28 injuries. These attacks are part of Iran's retaliation for the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in an earlier Israel-US strike. Tel Aviv residents reported explosions, and Israeli emergency services confirmed casualties. Iran's parliamentary speaker stated the attacks were a response to Israel crossing a "red line." The US military reported minimal damage and no casualties from hundreds of Iranian missile and drone attacks, while Israel stated it intercepted many of the dozens of missiles launched toward its territory.

Reports indicate that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may be dead following a potential US or Israeli military strike. The news follows a period of escalating tensions between Iran and the US, marked by US military buildup in the region due to concerns over Iran's nuclear program. Khamenei, who was 86 years old, had previously warned that a US strike would trigger a regional war, while also engaging in nuclear program negotiations with the US. Prior to the reported strike, Khamenei faced increasing internal pressure due to economic hardship, corruption, and widespread protests against his rule, which were met with a violent crackdown. As of Saturday, there has been no official comment from Iran regarding Khamenei's status.

The CIA tracked the movements of Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, for months and shared this intelligence with Israeli officials. This intelligence sharing influenced the timing of recent strikes. These strikes, conducted by the US and Israel, resulted in the death of Khamenei and other senior Iranian leaders, prompting Iran to vow revenge. Iran retaliated with missile strikes against targets in Israel and Gulf Arab states. The conflict has resulted in casualties on both sides, including the first known American deaths, and has escalated tensions in the region, with Israel pledging continued strikes.

A coordinated US-Israeli strike targeted Iran on Saturday, reportedly killing several top Iranian leaders, including the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The operation involved a precision strike on a key target in Tehran, believed to be Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s compound, alongside a broader offensive using US-deployed kamikaze drones. US Central Command confirmed the use of these one-way attack drones, modeled after Iranian Shahed drones, for the first time in combat during "Operation Epic Fury." The attack, described as a "wildly bold daytime attack," targeted Iranian military, government, and intelligence sites, catching senior leadership off guard. Former President Trump announced that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had been killed in the strike.

In February 2026, President Trump ordered a military operation against Iran, including targeted strikes on Iranian leadership, a significant shift from his stance just months prior. The decision, made in conjunction with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, involved strikes on key Iranian nuclear sites and the targeting of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This marked a change in Trump's risk tolerance regarding the use of American military force against Iran. Previously, in June during Israel's war with Iran, Trump had agreed to bomb nuclear sites but rejected a plan to kill Khamenei. The military operation took place on Saturday, February 28, 2026, and was followed by Trump announcing Khamenei's death on social media.

Following the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in US-Israeli strikes, questions arise about the stability of the Islamic Republic. While some analysts predicted a potential collapse, initial signs suggest a hardening of the current regime, with security institutions consolidating power. In the immediate aftermath, paramilitary units deployed nationwide to prevent unrest, and Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Israeli and US-linked targets. Despite these actions, the attacks struggled to penetrate Israeli defenses or inflict substantial damage on American forces. Analysts warn that a contested interim period, potentially leading to increased military control, poses a greater risk than an orderly transition. The future of Iran's leadership and political structure remains uncertain.

On March 1, 2026, the United States and Israel conducted a large attack in Iran that resulted in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The New York Times reported on the immediate aftermath of the attack and the reactions of ordinary Iranians. The report, led by Iran bureau chief Erika Solomon, focused on how Iranians are responding to the sudden end of Khamenei's authoritarian rule. The report also examined the uncertainty surrounding Iran's future following this significant event. The video report aimed to provide insight into the situation on the ground in Iran following the strikes.

Following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran faces a precarious situation with internal divisions and mounting external pressures. While some celebrated, hoping for an end to clerical rule, others mourned and demanded retribution. Despite maintaining military power, the regime faces a growing list of dead leaders, including high-ranking military officials, straining its leadership and resources. Simultaneously, Iran's regional relationships are deteriorating, with its Gulf partners criticizing its actions and accusing it of playing into the hands of the US. The Strategic Council on Foreign Relations pleaded with Gulf states to unite against the US, but the UAE countered that Iran's aggression is self-isolating. The article suggests that without a change in direction, the Iranian regime risks a breakdown in civil order.

On Saturday morning, the US and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran, targeting Iranian leaders and military sites. In response, Iran's IRGC fired missiles at US military bases in the Gulf, with explosions reported in Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar, resulting in one death in the UAE. Explosions also occurred in Tehran, near the presidential palace. Iran launched missiles at Israel, triggering air defense systems over Jerusalem. The US President vowed to crush Iran's military and eliminate its nuclear program, citing the need to defend Americans. The Israeli Prime Minister stated the operation aimed to remove an existential threat. These events followed inconclusive nuclear talks between the US and Iran.

On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States launched a joint military attack on Iran, with explosions reported in Tehran near University Street, the Jomhouri area, and Seyyed Khandan. According to a US official, the operation aimed to pressure Iran into a nuclear deal, amidst a large US military presence in the region. Israel's Defence Minister stated the attack was a preemptive measure to eliminate threats to Israel. In response, sirens sounded in Israel, prompting the military to issue alerts and close airspace. The US Embassy in Qatar also implemented shelter-in-place protocols for its personnel and advised citizens to do the same. The Associated Press reported that strikes occurred near the offices of Iran's Supreme Leader.

Following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, world leaders are reacting cautiously amid growing fears of a wider war. The strikes, including one near the offices of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran, occurred on Saturday. European leaders convened emergency meetings in response to the escalating situation. The international community is concerned about the potential for a broader conflict in the region. The strikes have prompted increased diplomatic activity as leaders seek to de-escalate tensions.

In February 2026, reports emerged that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in joint US-Israeli air strikes on his compound in Iran. Khamenei assumed leadership in 1989 after the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who led the Islamic Revolution. While Khomeini provided the revolution's ideology, Khamenei developed Iran's military and paramilitary forces, extending its influence beyond its borders. His distrust of the West, particularly the United States, stemmed from the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, during which Western countries supported Saddam Hussein. This shaped his belief that Iran needed constant defense against external and internal threats, leading to the rise of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a powerful institution.

In February 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched an attack on Iran, with initial strikes reported near Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's offices. Iranian media reported strikes nationwide, with smoke visible in the capital. U.S. President Donald Trump announced in a video that the U.S. had begun "major combat operations in Iran." Trump stated the objective was to defend Americans by eliminating threats from the Iranian regime, citing their continued nuclear program development and alleged plans to develop missiles capable of reaching the U.S. He claimed Iran has been chanting "Death to America" for 47 years. Trump appealed to the Iranian people to overthrow their government.

Exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has called on Iranians to overthrow the current regime following reported joint U.S.-Israeli strikes. Pahlavi described the strikes as "humanitarian intervention" targeting the Islamic Republic, not the Iranian people, and urged the U.S. to protect civilian lives. He appealed to Iran's military and security forces to defect from the regime and join the people, promising a stable transition. While predicting the regime's collapse, Pahlavi advised citizens to remain home for now, awaiting his signal to return to the streets for a final push. He framed the moment as a decisive opportunity for Iranians to reclaim their country.