How Trump’s plan to take Iran’s Kharg Island could come unhinged

Analysts suggest that Donald Trump's plan to seize Iran's Kharg Island, a crucial oil hub handling 90% of Iran's crude shipments, carries significant risks due to its strategic location in the Persian Gulf. Kharg Island is located 33km off the Iranian mainland, placing it within range of Iranian missiles and drones, and 660km from the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump administration is considering this action to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait, which has been effectively shut in response to US-Israeli strikes that began on February 28. Trump's recent speech hinted at further strikes and the nearing completion of "Operation Epic Fury," raising concerns about a potential US seizure of Kharg Island amidst increasing American troop presence in the region. Trump has repeatedly threatened to seize the island since the start of the US-Israeli military campaign.

Yemen's Houthis have entered the regional conflict between Iran and its enemies, the US and Israel, with a confirmed attack on Israel in March 2026. While the Houthis align with Iran's broader strategy as part of the "Axis of Resistance," they maintain a degree of independence in their decision-making. Iran provides support, expertise, and political cover, but the Houthis prioritize their domestic objectives in Yemen, where they control Sanaa and much of the northwest. This allows them to leverage regional escalations to serve their own project within Yemen, without directly mirroring the actions of other Iran-backed groups like Hezbollah. The Houthis' relationship with Iran is an unequal partnership that allows them to act in their own interests.

Experts warn that President Trump's threat to seize Iran's Kharg Island, the hub of 90% of its oil exports, carries significant risks. Military analysts suggest a naval blockade might be a better option to pressure Iran. Seizing the island could escalate the ongoing conflict, prompting retaliation from Iran and its proxies, potentially disrupting global energy supplies. Experts highlight the difficulty of securing and holding the island, which is close to the Iranian mainland and vulnerable to attack. While Trump faces pressure to end the month-long conflict, analysts caution that seizing Kharg Island may not force Iran to capitulate and could endanger American troops.

European officials report that Iran is pressuring the Houthi rebels in Yemen to prepare for renewed attacks on Red Sea shipping. This action is reportedly contingent on further escalation by the US against Iran. Houthi leaders are considering more aggressive actions after launching ballistic missiles at Israel. Internal divisions exist within the Houthi leadership regarding the extent of aggression. While the Houthis announced they would continue military operations until US-Israeli attacks on Iran and its proxies cease, they did not explicitly state they would target Red Sea vessels. US and Saudi Arabian officials believe the Houthis currently aim to avoid further escalation and attacks on American and Saudi assets.

In March 2026, US President Donald Trump threatened to seize or destroy Iran's Kharg Island, its main oil export hub, if Tehran does not agree to a deal with the US. Nearly all of Iran's oil exports depend on Kharg Island. The potential takeover, possibly involving ground troops, is part of escalating tensions between the US and Iran. Analysts suggest the US may be trying to gain leverage in negotiations with Iran by threatening its oil exports. The strategic importance of Kharg Island raises concerns about the potential impact on the conflict and global energy markets.

In March 2026, amidst a month-long war with Iran that disrupted global markets and increased energy prices, former US President Donald Trump urged countries to either purchase oil from the United States or take it from the Strait of Hormuz. Trump criticized nations like the United Kingdom and France for not supporting US-Israeli strikes against Iran. He suggested these countries, facing jet fuel shortages due to the Strait's closure, should assert themselves and seize oil, implying the US would no longer provide assistance. Trump also cited France's refusal to allow military supply flights to Israel as further justification for his stance. His statements were made via a Truth Social post.

Iran has accused the United States of secretly planning a ground assault while publicly seeking negotiations, amidst ongoing tensions. This accusation comes as the conflict, which has already caused significant global energy disruption, enters its second month. President Trump stated in an interview that he would prefer to seize Iranian oil and suggested that taking Kharg Island, a crucial Iranian export hub, would be easy. The situation is developing, and the potential seizure of Iranian crude oil is significant for Cuba, which is currently experiencing severe fuel shortages due to a lack of imports. Cuba's president has stated that the country has not received any oil imports for three months.

In March 2026, US President Donald Trump expressed his desire to seize Iran's oil by taking control of Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub. He stated that some within the US opposed the plan, but he dismissed them as "stupid people." The US has deployed Marines to the Middle East amidst ongoing tensions, including a US-Israel war on Iran. US officials have discussed the possibility of seizing Kharg Island, which is vital to Iran's energy sector. In response, Iran threatened to retaliate with attacks on the infrastructure of a regional country assisting the US.

Amidst increased US military presence in the Middle East, Iran alleges that the US is secretly planning a ground assault, despite publicly discussing ceasefire talks. Former President Trump has made statements threatening Iran's energy infrastructure, suggesting the US could seize Iranian oil and its Kharg Island export hub. He also claimed to be in talks with a new "reasonable regime" in Iran. The situation is further complicated by the involvement of Yemen's Houthi forces, raising concerns about potential damage to the global economy. Jonathan Freedland discusses these developments on Politics Weekly America, available on YouTube and as a podcast.

Donald Trump threatened to "obliterate" Iran's energy grid and water plants if a ceasefire is not reached "shortly" in the ongoing conflict instigated by the US and Israel. This threat, made via social media, includes targeting Kharg Island, a major oil export facility. Trump claims to be in "serious discussions" with a "more reasonable regime" in Tehran to reach a deal, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has described US peace proposals as "excessive" and acknowledged receiving a 15-point proposal from the Trump administration after talks with other nations. The White House indicated Trump would seek financial assistance from Arab countries to cover the war costs, while also expressing a preference to "take the oil in Iran," potentially requiring a US troop seizure of Kharg Island.

The article discusses the possibility of the U.S. seizing Iran's Kharg Island, its main oil export terminal, located in the northern Gulf. President Trump has indicated he may send troops to take control of the island, through which 90% of Iran's oil exports pass. The potential operation aims to pressure Iran into relinquishing control of the Strait of Hormuz and conceding to U.S. demands. The U.S. has nearly 5,000 Marines and 2,000 paratroopers in the region, who could potentially be used in an airborne or amphibious assault. However, Iran has reinforced its defenses on Kharg Island and warned of retaliation, making any such operation highly risky.

Donald Trump threatened to attack Iranian infrastructure, including desalination plants, if a deal isn't reached with a "new regime" to end US military operations in Iran and if the Hormuz Strait isn't open for business. Trump stated the US would obliterate electric plants, oil wells, Kharg Island, and possibly desalination plants. A legal expert stated that targeting civilian sites like desalination plants would constitute "collective punishment," which is prohibited under international law, specifically the Fourth Geneva Convention. The expert added that deliberately harming an entire civilian population to pressure its government is illegal.

One month after the US and Israel began military operations against Iran on February 28, 2026, Yemen's Houthi rebels have opened a new front by attacking Israel. The Houthis launched missile and drone attacks on Israel, which were reportedly intercepted, pledging further action in support of allies. This escalation raises concerns about the conflict spiraling out of control, as Iran has already disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthis' involvement also threatens to disrupt Red Sea traffic via the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, potentially impacting Israeli trade. The US anticipates concluding its military operations against Iran within weeks, even as further deployments arrive in the region.

Houthi rebels in Yemen, backed by Iran, launched missile attacks on Israel on Saturday, marking their entry into the ongoing Middle East conflict. The Houthis claimed to target sensitive Israeli military sites, while Israel reported intercepting a missile. This action raises concerns about potential disruptions to global shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait off the Red Sea, a crucial passage for approximately 12% of global trade. The Houthis, controlling much of northern Yemen, are a key part of Iran's "Axis of Resistance," and their involvement could exacerbate the existing tensions and further impact international trade routes. The Israeli military stated they are preparing for a multifront war.

The Houthis in Yemen, backed by Iran, have entered the conflict, raising concerns about potential disruptions to Red Sea shipping. The Houthis control a significant portion of Yemen and possess the capability to target the Bab al-Mandab strait, a crucial waterway. While a ceasefire mediated by Oman had halted Houthi attacks on US shipping since May 2025, attacks on Israel continued. The extent of Houthi involvement, whether limited missile strikes or a full closure of the Red Sea, remains to be seen. The Bab al-Mandab strait has always been vulnerable to Houthi attacks, and major carriers have been slow to resume traffic through the Red Sea.

Reports indicate the Pentagon is preparing options for potential ground operations in Iran, including special forces raids or infantry deployments. This comes as the US increases its military presence in the Middle East, with an additional 3,500 troops arriving recently, joining the roughly 50,000 already stationed in the region. Potential objectives for military action could include securing the Strait of Hormuz, seizing Iranian uranium, or targeting oil facilities. Lawmakers are debating the necessity and scope of any potential ground involvement, with Senator Lankford emphasizing the need for clear objectives and a defined exit strategy. The White House stated that the Pentagon's preparations are for optionality and do not indicate a presidential decision has been made.

The Pentagon is reportedly preparing plans for weeks of limited ground operations in Iran, potentially including raids on Kharg Island and coastal sites near the Strait of Hormuz. According to The Washington Post, the plans involve special operations and conventional infantry troops, but fall short of a full-scale invasion. These preparations come as the war in Iran stretches into its fifth week, with the US deploying additional Marines and soldiers to the Middle East, including approximately 3,500 soldiers who recently arrived on the USS Tripoli. Discussions within the administration have considered seizing Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub, and raiding coastal areas to destroy weapons targeting commercial and military shipping. While the Pentagon is preparing options, it remains uncertain whether President Trump will approve any of these plans.

Iranian strikes targeted Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) and Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) facilities on Saturday, injuring two Alba employees and causing significant damage to EGA's site. The attacks are part of a broader Iranian assault on Gulf economic infrastructure, including oil refineries, ports, and shipping lanes. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps claimed responsibility, citing retaliation for attacks on Iranian steel plants with ties to US military and aeronautics firms. The Strait of Hormuz closure, due to the US-Israeli war on Iran, has already disrupted shipments from Gulf aluminium producers, who account for approximately 9% of global supply. Alba operates the world's largest single-site smelter, while EGA is the Middle East's largest aluminium producer.

Chinese analysts believe the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, now in its second month, is unlikely to be prolonged despite escalating tensions. The conflict has expanded geographically, with Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen firing missiles at Israel, one of which was intercepted. The Houthis operate near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical shipping lane for Eurasian trade. Analysts warn that Houthi obstruction of this strait could significantly impact the global economy and potentially cause another increase in oil prices, which have already risen. The Houthi missile attack was reportedly issued as a warning.

Yemen's Houthi rebels launched a barrage of ballistic missiles targeting "sensitive Israeli military sites" in southern Israel on Saturday, marking their first direct strikes since the US-Israeli war on Iran began. Houthi military spokesperson Brigadier-General Yahya Saree announced the attack, stating it would continue until objectives are achieved and aggression against the resistance ceases. The Israeli military reported intercepting one missile, with sirens sounding in Beersheba and near Israel's nuclear research center. The Houthis, who have controlled Yemen's capital since 2014, had previously stayed out of the conflict, though they disrupted Red Sea shipping during the Israel-Hamas war. This attack signals a potential escalation of the broader regional conflict.

The conflict between the US-Israeli alliance and Iran has escalated with the entry of Houthi forces from Yemen, who launched missile attacks on Israeli military sites. This expansion threatens key maritime routes like the Bab al-Mandab strait, potentially amplifying the war's impact on the global economy. While Israel claims to have intercepted one missile, the Houthis vow to continue operations until aggression ceases. A meeting of Middle Eastern powers in Pakistan aims to find a regional solution, but excludes the warring parties. Attacks have also been reported on a Saudi airbase and Kuwait airport, raising concerns about further regional involvement, including potential direct intervention by Saudi Arabia if its Red Sea oil export route is threatened.

The Houthi movement in Yemen, backed by Iran, poses a significant threat to Red Sea shipping lanes. While their missile attacks on Israel have been limited, the Houthis' potential targeting of vessels in the Bab al-Mandab strait could severely disrupt global trade and energy supplies. This action, taken in support of Hamas, risks escalating tensions and further damaging the global economy, especially if coupled with Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthis have previously targeted Gulf Arab neighbors and faced retaliatory strikes. Increased Houthi involvement could reignite Yemen's internal conflict and broaden the ongoing regional war. The extent of the Houthis' future actions remains uncertain.

The Houthis in Yemen warned they are prepared to militarily intervene if other countries join the US and Israel in a war against Iran, or if the Red Sea is used to attack Iran. Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree stated their "fingers are on the trigger" for direct military intervention under those circumstances. This warning raises concerns about a broader regional conflict, given the Houthis' ability to strike targets and disrupt shipping lanes. The Houthis have controlled much of Yemen since 2014 and have previously targeted vessels in the Red Sea and Israel in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. While a truce was agreed upon in May, this new statement suggests a potential shift in Houthi involvement in the region.

According to an intelligence source, Saudi Arabia is urging the United States to intensify its attacks on Iran, viewing the current US-Israeli campaign as a crucial opportunity to reshape the Middle East. While not currently involved militarily in the conflict that began in late February, Saudi Arabia is considering direct intervention if peace efforts fail and Iran continues its attacks. Recent Iranian drone strikes, including one targeting an oil refinery in Yanbu on the Red Sea coast, have heightened tensions. Despite possessing a pipeline to transport oil via the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia faces potential threats to its economic lifeline and from Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Saudi Arabia claims it is calibrating its response and preparing for potential escalation, while maintaining that it has not been pushing for war.

Yemenis fear potential economic consequences as they could be drawn into the conflict between the U.S. and Iran. While Iran's allies, such as Hezbollah, are actively involved, the Iran-allied Houthis in Yemen have not yet engaged. However, the Houthis possess the capability to target shipping in the Red Sea, and an Iranian official suggested they could destabilize the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb Strait if the U.S. attacks Iranian oil facilities. Analysts warn that Houthi involvement, such as blockading Bab al-Mandeb, would devastate Yemen economically and humanitarianly, and could reignite Yemen's internal conflict. Abdulsalam Mohammed suggests the Houthis would likely target energy facilities and ports in Gulf countries.