Coordinated conflict: how the Ukraine and Iran wars are starting to overlap

The Ukraine and Iran conflicts are increasingly interconnected, drawing in more countries and creating wider instability. Russia has been using Iranian-made drones in Ukraine since September 2022, and is now reportedly providing Iran with intelligence, targeting assistance, and drones. Ukraine is also forging security agreements with Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Jordan, providing drone and anti-drone technology. The conflicts are impacting global energy markets, with disruptions in the Middle East benefiting Russia economically. To stabilize the market, the US has eased restrictions on Russian oil exports, while Asian countries are increasing purchases of Russian oil. Ukraine has intensified strikes on Russian energy infrastructure to limit Russia's profits, demonstrating the tangible impact each conflict has on the other.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in Jordan on Sunday as part of a tour to strengthen defense ties in the Gulf region. The visit aims to bolster security cooperation amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Zelenskyy emphasized the importance of partners' efforts towards security in a post on X. This visit follows Ukraine's recent agreements to cooperate on defense with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Kyiv has also deployed anti-drone experts to these countries due to Iranian drone attacks, similar to those used by Russia in the war against Ukraine. Zelenskyy is seeking support from Gulf states as Ukraine struggles to fund its defense and retaliates against Russian infrastructure.

Volodymyr Zelensky has been touring Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, to promote Ukraine's air defense technology. He claims Ukraine has altered the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, particularly regarding defense against Iranian drones and missiles. Ukraine is marketing its drone interception technology, developed to counter Russian attacks, as a solution to the Iranian drone threat faced by Gulf nations. These defense agreements could provide Ukraine with significant financial benefits amidst its ongoing conflict with Russia and potential slowdowns in Western aid. The deals aim to capitalize on Ukraine's wartime innovations and create economic opportunities despite the challenges posed by the Russian invasion.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is offering Ukraine's advanced anti-drone technology to Middle Eastern allies, including the UAE, Qatar, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, in exchange for ballistic missile support and financial aid. Zelenskyy met with UAE's President in Abu Dhabi to discuss a potential agreement, highlighting Ukraine's unique electronic warfare and drone interception systems. This initiative aims to strengthen defense partnerships as these nations confront growing drone threats, particularly from Iran. Zelenskyy emphasized the reciprocal nature of these partnerships, seeking critical air defense weapons like PAC-3 Patriot missiles to address Ukraine's own defense deficit. He also cautioned that increasing U.S. military focus on the Middle East could potentially slow weapon deliveries to Ukraine, while Russia is reportedly sharing drone technology and battlefield tactics with Iran.

During a recent tour of the Gulf states, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed air defense cooperation agreements with the UAE and Qatar. The agreements aim to leverage Ukraine's expertise in countering drones and missiles, particularly in light of increasing threats from Iran. The deal with Qatar, signed on Saturday, focuses on technological collaboration, joint investments, and expertise exchange in countering missiles and unmanned aerial systems. Earlier that day, Zelenskyy announced a similar defense cooperation agreement with the UAE, following a deal with Saudi Arabia on Thursday. Ukraine has deployed anti-drone experts to these countries, seeking to strengthen their defenses and foster mutually beneficial partnerships.

The article discusses the escalating conflict in the Middle East following a US-Israeli attack on Iran in late February. Drones and missiles have struck the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, disrupting oil and gas industries and causing tourists and expats to leave. The UK has stated it will not be drawn into the wider war, even after Donald Trump called for allies to send warships to the strait of Hormuz. In other news, Keir Starmer announced £53m in government support for households reliant on heating oil. A student in Kent died from meningitis, and campaigners are calling for pollution alerts in Windermere after a child contracted E. coli. The BBC is seeking to dismiss Donald Trump's $10bn lawsuit over a documentary. Finally, Belgium's prime minister is facing criticism for suggesting normalized relations with Russia to restore cheap energy supplies.

The article reports on escalating tensions in the Middle East. Donald Trump expressed surprise that Iran has targeted US allies in the Gulf, despite their long-standing military partnership. These Gulf states, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Oman, have allowed US military presence and are major buyers of American weapons. Now, they are increasingly concerned about being drawn into a conflict they sought to avoid, as Iran launches attacks on various targets within their borders. Separately, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed that Russia is supplying Iran with Shahed drones, some of which he alleges have been used in attacks against US bases. These drones, initially developed by Iran, are now also manufactured by Russia and used by other countries.

Amidst the ongoing Israel-United States war with Iran, Ukraine sent specialists to Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan to assist Middle Eastern countries in defending against Iranian drone attacks. President Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine seeks financial support and technology in exchange for its expertise in countering Iranian drones, particularly given Russia's extensive use of similar drones in the Russia-Ukraine war. While Ukraine denies direct involvement in military operations against Iran, it aims to establish long-term drone deals with Gulf countries. Zelenskyy also expressed interest in a drone agreement with the US, potentially worth billions of dollars, but President Trump has indicated that the US does not need Ukraine's assistance.

On March 12, 2026, two foreign oil tankers were attacked in Iraq's al-Faw port amidst ongoing conflict. Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia intercepted Iranian missiles and drones. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated three conditions for peace: recognition of Iran's rights, war reparations, and international guarantees against future aggression. The events occurred within the context of a larger war involving Iran, with the attacks and conditions highlighting the escalating tensions and potential pathways to resolution. The motivations behind the tanker attacks remain unclear, but they contribute to the instability in the region.

The UN Security Council passed a resolution on Wednesday demanding Iran immediately cease all attacks on Gulf states, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Jordan. The resolution, passed with 13 votes and two abstentions, also condemned Iranian actions obstructing international navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. This action follows repeated Iranian strikes on Gulf states, which Tehran claims are retaliatory measures for US-Israeli attacks on Iranian sites, including one that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran has also targeted commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's ambassador decried the resolution as a misuse of the UN, but Iran states it will halt strikes on neighboring nations.

Recent developments indicate escalating tensions involving Iran, the US, and Israel. Iran launched missiles toward Israel, targeting military bases and a satellite communications center, while claiming to target US interests in Iraqi Kurdistan and Bahrain. In response, the US military reports destroying 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. Domestically, Iran's police chief has threatened to treat protesters as "enemies." Public opinion polls in the US show significantly lower support for military action against Iran compared to previous conflicts, potentially due to political polarization and a desire to avoid further wars. Analysts suggest previous presidents took more time to "sell wars to the public," accounting for the difference in opinion over this conflict.

Hamas, the ruling group in Gaza, has made a rare public appeal to its key ally Iran, urging it to cease attacks on Gulf states. The call comes amidst escalating regional tensions, with Iran conducting retaliatory strikes that have impacted civilian infrastructure and resulted in casualties in the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain. While affirming Iran's right to self-defense against the US and Israel, Hamas emphasized the need for regional cooperation and an immediate halt to the ongoing conflict. Hamas, a member of Iran's "axis of resistance," receives significant financial, military, and political support from Tehran, even as countries like Turkey and Qatar, also targeted by Iran, provide support to Hamas. The group expressed deep concern over the regional war and called for international intervention to end it.

On March 12, 2026, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution condemning Iran's attacks on Gulf countries and Jordan. The resolution, sponsored by the Gulf Cooperation Council and cosponsored by 135 UN member states, demands that Iran immediately cease all hostilities. Thirteen of the fifteen UNSC members voted in favor, while China and Russia abstained. The resolution specifically deplores Iran's targeting of infrastructure, including ports and energy facilities. Following the vote, Iran's UN Ambassador expressed regret over the resolution's adoption, but the resolution is now considered part of international law.

In March 2026, Qatar's UN ambassador, Sheikha Alya Ahmed bin Saif Al Thani, condemned Iran's missile and drone attacks across the Middle East as violations of international law and the UN Charter. She urged the UN Security Council to take immediate action to halt these attacks, warning that inaction would signal that aggression against uninvolved nations has no consequences. Her statement came before the Security Council voted on a resolution denouncing the attacks on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Iran initiated these strikes, targeting what it claimed were US and Israeli assets, after the two countries launched a war against Iran in late February. The attacks have disrupted civilian infrastructure, energy production, and flights, causing casualties in multiple countries, including US service members.

Iranian-designed Shahed drones, costing significantly less than traditional air defense systems, are increasingly used in conflicts from Ukraine to the Middle East, straining U.S. air defenses. Recent attacks, including Operation Epic Fury, targeted U.S. forces and allies in the Gulf, causing casualties and infrastructure damage despite the use of expensive interceptors like Patriot missiles. The high cost of these interceptors raises concerns about the sustainability of this defense strategy. Ukraine, a leader in drone warfare since the 2022 Russian invasion, has developed cheaper interceptor drones, costing as little as $1,400, with a high effectiveness rate against Shahed-type drones. The Pentagon and at least one Gulf government are reportedly interested in Ukraine's low-cost drone interceptor technology as a more affordable solution.

Recent Iranian attacks in the Gulf have expanded beyond traditional oil and gas infrastructure to include data centers, signaling a shift in targeting strategic assets. On March 1st, drone attacks damaged three Amazon Web Services data centers in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. These attacks suggest a deliberate effort to undermine the Gulf's post-oil future, particularly its ambitions in artificial intelligence. The region's AI investments, supported by partnerships and cloud providers, rely on cheap and reliable power, which is now threatened. This new focus on data centers poses a risk to the Gulf's economic diversification efforts.

An Iranian official warned that any European country aiding in aggression against Iran would become a legitimate target for retaliation. Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi stated this to France24, while President Masoud Pezeshkian apologized to neighboring countries, including Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Oman, for Iranian attacks. Pezeshkian vowed that future attacks would only be in response to aggression against Iran, advocating for diplomatic solutions. Despite this, the UAE reported intercepting 16 ballistic missiles launched from Iran. Takht-Ravanchi also claimed Iran was negotiating with the U.S. in good faith regarding its nuclear program before recent military operations.

A joint US and Israeli attack on Iran has escalated into a widespread conflict across the Middle East. Within a 10-hour period, strikes and casualties were reported in at least nine countries. US and Israeli warplanes launched attacks across Iran and Lebanon, while Iran retaliated with attacks on oil infrastructure and other targets stretching from the Gulf of Oman to Cyprus. Damage was reported in Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, including an attack on a British military base in Cyprus. The US military reported that Kuwait mistakenly shot down three American fighter jets during an Iranian attack. The US President has called for Iranians to overthrow their leaders, indicating the air campaign could continue for weeks. The Iranian Red Crescent Society reported over 500 deaths in Iran.

On March 5, 2026, Iran launched multiple missile and drone attacks across the Gulf region, targeting Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE, and Qatar. These attacks are a response to ongoing military actions by the United States and Israel, which began on Saturday and have resulted in over 1,230 deaths according to Iranian state media. Iran initially targeted US military assets but expanded to civilian infrastructure after the US/Israeli attacks. The Iranian strikes have caused casualties, including US service members, Israelis, and UAE residents, and have disrupted oil tanker traffic near the Strait of Hormuz, leading to soaring oil and gas prices. Gulf countries are on high alert, with air defenses intercepting projectiles.

Dubai residents and tourists were shaken when Iranian missiles and drones approached the Gulf states over the weekend, triggering air defenses in the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain. Many initially mistook the interceptors for fireworks, as Dubai attempted to maintain its image of stability amidst regional conflict. While some residents received official alerts, others were caught off guard. Fires and smoke were reported at Dubai and Abu Dhabi airports due to drone debris, resulting in one death and several injuries. Smoke was also seen at the Jebel Ali port area in Dubai, one of the busiest ports in the Middle East. The incident challenged Dubai's long-held perception as a safe haven insulated from regional political turmoil.

Following joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in March 2026, Iran retaliated by targeting Israel and US-linked military sites in the region, including in Gulf states hosting US forces. The exchange raises concerns about escalating conflict and Iran's capacity to strike back. Central to Iran's strategy is its large and diverse missile arsenal, including ballistic and cruise missiles, providing long-range capabilities. Iranian officials consider the missile program a key deterrent, especially given its aging air force. Western governments, however, view Iran's missile capabilities as destabilizing and potentially linked to nuclear ambitions, claims Iran denies.

Oil prices surged after the reported death of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in US-Israeli air strikes, escalating conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit route, experienced near standstill, impacting tanker traffic. This disruption raised concerns about supply shortages and increased import costs, particularly for Asian economies like China, India, Japan, and South Korea, which heavily rely on oil imports. Benchmark Brent crude jumped significantly, reflecting market fears of sustained supply disruption. Iran retaliated with attacks on US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, further escalating geopolitical tensions in the region.

On March 1, 2026, air traffic in the Middle East experienced significant disruption. According to Flightradar24, over 3,400 flights were canceled within the preceding 48 hours. The cancellations affected seven airports across the region. Airports impacted included those located in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain. The reason for the widespread flight cancellations was not specified in the report.

Airspace closures across the Middle East, triggered by attacks between America/Israel and Iran, caused widespread flight disruptions, stranding or diverting hundreds of thousands of travelers. Several countries, including Israel, Qatar, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain, closed their airspace, leading to the suspension of operations at key international airports in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha. Major airlines like Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad cancelled thousands of flights, impacting an estimated 90,000 passengers daily passing through these hubs. Over 3,400 flights were cancelled across seven major Middle Eastern airports on Sunday. Some airports and landmarks in the region sustained damage, resulting in injuries and at least one reported death. The closure of Iranian airspace was extended until Tuesday morning.

On Saturday morning, the US and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran, targeting Iranian leaders and military sites. In response, Iran's IRGC fired missiles at US military bases in the Gulf, with explosions reported in Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar, resulting in one death in the UAE. Explosions also occurred in Tehran, near the presidential palace. Iran launched missiles at Israel, triggering air defense systems over Jerusalem. The US President vowed to crush Iran's military and eliminate its nuclear program, citing the need to defend Americans. The Israeli Prime Minister stated the operation aimed to remove an existential threat. These events followed inconclusive nuclear talks between the US and Iran.

In February 2026, Iran's Foreign Ministry defended its retaliatory strikes against US and Israeli targets as legitimate self-defense, citing Article 51 of the UN Charter. This followed US-Israeli attacks on multiple Iranian cities, including Tehran, which resulted in at least 201 deaths. Iran responded by launching missiles at Israel and US military targets in Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. The US-Israeli attacks occurred after indirect negotiations between the US and Iran regarding Iran's nuclear program concluded on Friday, with further talks scheduled for the following Monday. According to Iran, the US acknowledged the progress made in these negotiations, which were mediated by Oman.

US and Israeli forces conducted air strikes on Iranian cities on Saturday, following weeks of tensions over Iran's nuclear program. UN Secretary General Guterres condemned the strikes, warning of wider regional conflict and calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities. Iran's Foreign Minister denounced the attacks as unprovoked and illegal. France, Germany, and the UK urged Iran to seek a negotiated solution, stating they did not participate in the strikes and condemned Iran's nuclear program and regional activities. Saudi Arabia condemned retaliatory attacks on Bahrain, the UAE, Qatar, Jordan and Kuwait. An emergency UN Security Council meeting has been called.

Following reported strikes in Iran by the US and Israel, Australia's National Security Committee is convening. Foreign Minister Penny Wong stated Australia was not informed in advance of the strikes and has updated travel advice for Israel, Lebanon, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. A crisis center has been activated to provide consular support to Australians in the region, and a registration portal has opened for Australians in Iran and Israel. Wong emphasized Iran's destabilizing role in the region and stated that Australia did not participate in the strikes. The Australian government advises Australians in the affected region to follow travel advice and seek safety, acknowledging potential difficulties with repatriation due to airspace closures.

Following Israeli and US airstrikes on Iran, the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs (Dfat) has warned Australians of potential "reprisal attacks and further escalation" across the Middle East. Dfat updated its Smartraveller website, advising against travel to Iran and urging those in the country to leave if safe, citing the risk of military conflict and potential airspace closures impacting global flights. Australians remaining in Iran are advised to prepare to shelter in place with adequate supplies. The Australian embassy's operations in Iran are suspended. Prior to the attacks, Australia had already advised citizens in Israel and Lebanon to consider leaving and withdrew dependents of officials from Israel and Lebanon due to the deteriorating security situation.