Coordinated conflict: how the Ukraine and Iran wars are starting to overlap

The Ukraine and Iran conflicts are increasingly interconnected, drawing in more countries and creating wider instability. Russia has been using Iranian-made drones in Ukraine since September 2022, and is now reportedly providing Iran with intelligence, targeting assistance, and drones. Ukraine is also forging security agreements with Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Jordan, providing drone and anti-drone technology. The conflicts are impacting global energy markets, with disruptions in the Middle East benefiting Russia economically. To stabilize the market, the US has eased restrictions on Russian oil exports, while Asian countries are increasing purchases of Russian oil. Ukraine has intensified strikes on Russian energy infrastructure to limit Russia's profits, demonstrating the tangible impact each conflict has on the other.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in Jordan on Sunday as part of a tour to strengthen defense ties in the Gulf region. The visit aims to bolster security cooperation amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Zelenskyy emphasized the importance of partners' efforts towards security in a post on X. This visit follows Ukraine's recent agreements to cooperate on defense with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Kyiv has also deployed anti-drone experts to these countries due to Iranian drone attacks, similar to those used by Russia in the war against Ukraine. Zelenskyy is seeking support from Gulf states as Ukraine struggles to fund its defense and retaliates against Russian infrastructure.

Volodymyr Zelensky has been touring Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, to promote Ukraine's air defense technology. He claims Ukraine has altered the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, particularly regarding defense against Iranian drones and missiles. Ukraine is marketing its drone interception technology, developed to counter Russian attacks, as a solution to the Iranian drone threat faced by Gulf nations. These defense agreements could provide Ukraine with significant financial benefits amidst its ongoing conflict with Russia and potential slowdowns in Western aid. The deals aim to capitalize on Ukraine's wartime innovations and create economic opportunities despite the challenges posed by the Russian invasion.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is offering Ukraine's advanced anti-drone technology to Middle Eastern allies, including the UAE, Qatar, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, in exchange for ballistic missile support and financial aid. Zelenskyy met with UAE's President in Abu Dhabi to discuss a potential agreement, highlighting Ukraine's unique electronic warfare and drone interception systems. This initiative aims to strengthen defense partnerships as these nations confront growing drone threats, particularly from Iran. Zelenskyy emphasized the reciprocal nature of these partnerships, seeking critical air defense weapons like PAC-3 Patriot missiles to address Ukraine's own defense deficit. He also cautioned that increasing U.S. military focus on the Middle East could potentially slow weapon deliveries to Ukraine, while Russia is reportedly sharing drone technology and battlefield tactics with Iran.

Gulf nations, facing increased missile and drone attacks from Iran since the US-Israeli war began a month ago, are seeking new defense partnerships. Ukraine, having developed cost-effective interceptor drones due to ongoing attacks from Russia, is being approached by some Gulf countries for its expertise. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have already signed defense agreements with Ukraine. The potential deals aim to provide Gulf countries with affordable drone defense solutions while offering Ukraine potential benefits. Experts are discussing the potential benefits of Ukrainian drones to Gulf countries under attack from Iran. The discussion was published on March 28, 2026.

During a recent tour of the Gulf states, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed air defense cooperation agreements with the UAE and Qatar. The agreements aim to leverage Ukraine's expertise in countering drones and missiles, particularly in light of increasing threats from Iran. The deal with Qatar, signed on Saturday, focuses on technological collaboration, joint investments, and expertise exchange in countering missiles and unmanned aerial systems. Earlier that day, Zelenskyy announced a similar defense cooperation agreement with the UAE, following a deal with Saudi Arabia on Thursday. Ukraine has deployed anti-drone experts to these countries, seeking to strengthen their defenses and foster mutually beneficial partnerships.

Ukraine and Saudi Arabia have signed a defense agreement focused on technological cooperation, investment, and future contracts. The deal, announced by President Zelenskyy during a visit to Saudi Arabia, aims to be mutually beneficial, leveraging Ukraine's expertise in countering drones and Saudi Arabia's defense capabilities. The agreement comes as Gulf countries face increasing attacks from Iran amid the US and Israel's conflict with Iran. Saudi Arabia has intercepted hundreds of drones and missiles, and Ukraine has extensive experience in combating drone attacks, having faced over 19,000 Russian drone attacks this winter alone. The memorandum focuses on defense procurement.

Overnight Russian drone strikes in Ukraine killed at least five people and injured others in multiple regions, including Odesa, Kryvyi Rih, and Poltava. Ukrainian authorities reported that Russia launched over 270 drones, targeting civilian infrastructure like a maternity hospital and industrial sites. Meanwhile, President Zelenskyy made an unannounced visit to the United Arab Emirates to discuss regional security and drone defense cooperation. Ukraine is assisting several Middle Eastern and Gulf countries, including the UAE, in countering Iranian drone attacks. Zelenskyy emphasized the importance of global protection against terror and discussed the security situation in the Emirates, Iranian strikes, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz with the Emirati leader.

The article reports on escalating tensions in the Middle East. Donald Trump expressed surprise that Iran has targeted US allies in the Gulf, despite their long-standing military partnership. These Gulf states, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Oman, have allowed US military presence and are major buyers of American weapons. Now, they are increasingly concerned about being drawn into a conflict they sought to avoid, as Iran launches attacks on various targets within their borders. Separately, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed that Russia is supplying Iran with Shahed drones, some of which he alleges have been used in attacks against US bases. These drones, initially developed by Iran, are now also manufactured by Russia and used by other countries.

Iran has launched missile and drone attacks against several Gulf Arab nations, including Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, escalating regional tensions. These attacks, a retaliation for a US-Israel war launched on Iran nearly three weeks ago, have prompted Gulf states to intercept the incoming projectiles. Qatar's Ministry of Defence confirmed intercepting a missile attack, while the Kuwait National Guard reported shooting down a drone. The UAE has reportedly been the hardest hit, facing numerous missile and drone attacks, with explosions heard in Dubai. These events have occurred early Tuesday, adding to the ongoing conflict's impact on the Middle East, which includes deaths, destruction, and an energy crisis.

Twelve Arab and Islamic countries, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, issued a joint statement in Riyadh condemning recent Iranian attacks. The countries accused Iran of targeting civilian infrastructure, including oil facilities and airports, and warned against further escalation. They asserted their right to self-defense under the UN Charter and urged Iran to respect their sovereignty, cease support for militias, and avoid actions threatening maritime security. The statement followed reported Israeli strikes on Iran's South Pars gas field and subsequent Iranian retaliatory attacks on energy infrastructure in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which caused a surge in oil prices. The countries pledged to continue coordinating to protect their security and halt Iranian attacks.

The South China Morning Post reports that escalating conflict between the US-Israel alliance and Iran is threatening global energy infrastructure and causing oil price volatility. Recent events include strikes on Iran's South Pars natural gas field and retaliation against Qatar's LNG facility, alongside threats to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy waterway, is reportedly closed. As a result, international oil prices have surged, with Brent futures reaching between $113 and $115. US officials warn of potential economic hardship for consumers due to rising oil prices. The article examines these developments and their potential impact on the global economy.

Oil prices surged after an Israeli strike on Iran's South Pars gasfield, the world's largest, located off the coast of Bushehr province. Brent crude rose 5% to $108.66 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 2.5% to $98.65. The attack prompted Iran to threaten retaliatory strikes on energy infrastructure in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, and Qatar reported a fire at its Ras Laffan gas facility after an Iranian missile attack. Disruptions to Middle Eastern oil and gas exports, including halted shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, have led to estimated output cuts of 7-10 million barrels per day. Experts fear prolonged elevated prices could trigger global inflation.

Despite ongoing conflict, Iran continues to export millions of barrels of oil. Approximately 90 ships, including oil tankers, have traversed the Strait of Hormuz since the war began. The Associated Press reported the activity on March 12, 2026, with images showing ships in the Strait of Hormuz and at the Mumbai Port in India. The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for oil transport, remains a key route for Iranian exports despite the ongoing war. The continued oil exports suggest Iran's efforts to maintain its economy amidst conflict.

As the US-Israeli war on Iran escalates in March 2026, Gulf countries are increasingly targeted by Iranian strikes, including drone attacks on Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. While Gulf states maintain their defenses are sufficient, they also have military partnerships that could provide assistance. Qatar hosts the largest US military base in the region, Al Udeid, serving as the forward headquarters for US Central Command. Qatar is also the second-largest Foreign Military Sales partner to the US, having recently purchased missile systems, early warning systems, and attack helicopters. In September 2025, Israel struck a residential area in Qatar's capital, Doha, targeting Hamas leaders. The US has reaffirmed its support for Qatar, stating that an attack on its territory would be viewed as an attack on the US.

In March 2026, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth asserted that the United States was achieving its goals regarding Iran, despite recent attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf region. These attacks, attributed to Iran, targeted Qatar's Ras Laffan gas facility, as well as energy sites in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. The strikes caused a surge in oil prices, exceeding $100 per barrel. Hegseth's statement came amidst escalating tensions and followed the reported Iranian attacks on key Gulf energy facilities. The Defense Secretary's insistence on meeting objectives suggests a continued U.S. strategy despite the increased volatility in the region.

Iran's Assembly of Experts has selected a new Supreme Leader to succeed Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a joint US-Israeli strike in late February. While the chosen successor's name has not been publicly announced, the selection was confirmed by multiple members of the Assembly. Israel has warned it will target any successor and those involved in the appointment. Mojtaba Khamenei, the deceased leader's son, was considered a frontrunner, although his appointment faces opposition due to concerns about dynastic succession and the regime's human rights record. The selection process occurs amid escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, including strikes on energy infrastructure across the Gulf and inside Iran, with Russia reportedly providing Iran with intelligence.

On March 12, 2026, two foreign oil tankers were attacked in Iraq's al-Faw port amidst ongoing conflict. Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia intercepted Iranian missiles and drones. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated three conditions for peace: recognition of Iran's rights, war reparations, and international guarantees against future aggression. The events occurred within the context of a larger war involving Iran, with the attacks and conditions highlighting the escalating tensions and potential pathways to resolution. The motivations behind the tanker attacks remain unclear, but they contribute to the instability in the region.

The UN Security Council passed a resolution on Wednesday demanding Iran immediately cease all attacks on Gulf states, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Jordan. The resolution, passed with 13 votes and two abstentions, also condemned Iranian actions obstructing international navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. This action follows repeated Iranian strikes on Gulf states, which Tehran claims are retaliatory measures for US-Israeli attacks on Iranian sites, including one that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran has also targeted commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's ambassador decried the resolution as a misuse of the UN, but Iran states it will halt strikes on neighboring nations.

Hamas, the ruling group in Gaza, has made a rare public appeal to its key ally Iran, urging it to cease attacks on Gulf states. The call comes amidst escalating regional tensions, with Iran conducting retaliatory strikes that have impacted civilian infrastructure and resulted in casualties in the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain. While affirming Iran's right to self-defense against the US and Israel, Hamas emphasized the need for regional cooperation and an immediate halt to the ongoing conflict. Hamas, a member of Iran's "axis of resistance," receives significant financial, military, and political support from Tehran, even as countries like Turkey and Qatar, also targeted by Iran, provide support to Hamas. The group expressed deep concern over the regional war and called for international intervention to end it.

In March 2026, Qatar's UN ambassador, Sheikha Alya Ahmed bin Saif Al Thani, condemned Iran's missile and drone attacks across the Middle East as violations of international law and the UN Charter. She urged the UN Security Council to take immediate action to halt these attacks, warning that inaction would signal that aggression against uninvolved nations has no consequences. Her statement came before the Security Council voted on a resolution denouncing the attacks on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Iran initiated these strikes, targeting what it claimed were US and Israeli assets, after the two countries launched a war against Iran in late February. The attacks have disrupted civilian infrastructure, energy production, and flights, causing casualties in multiple countries, including US service members.

Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist movement, publicly appealed to Iran on Saturday to avoid targeting neighboring countries in its response to aggression from Israel and the United States. While affirming Iran's right to defend itself, Hamas urged restraint to prevent further regional escalation. This marks a rare public statement from Hamas directed towards Tehran. The appeal comes amidst heightened tensions in the Middle East following the death of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. Hamas also called on the international community to intervene and halt the ongoing war, acknowledging Khamenei's significant support for the Palestinian cause.

Recent Iranian attacks in the Gulf have expanded beyond traditional oil and gas infrastructure to include data centers, signaling a shift in targeting strategic assets. On March 1st, drone attacks damaged three Amazon Web Services data centers in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. These attacks suggest a deliberate effort to undermine the Gulf's post-oil future, particularly its ambitions in artificial intelligence. The region's AI investments, supported by partnerships and cloud providers, rely on cheap and reliable power, which is now threatened. This new focus on data centers poses a risk to the Gulf's economic diversification efforts.

An Iranian official warned that any European country aiding in aggression against Iran would become a legitimate target for retaliation. Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi stated this to France24, while President Masoud Pezeshkian apologized to neighboring countries, including Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Oman, for Iranian attacks. Pezeshkian vowed that future attacks would only be in response to aggression against Iran, advocating for diplomatic solutions. Despite this, the UAE reported intercepting 16 ballistic missiles launched from Iran. Takht-Ravanchi also claimed Iran was negotiating with the U.S. in good faith regarding its nuclear program before recent military operations.

In March 2026, amidst the US-Israel war on Iran, the conflict expanded across the Middle East. Iran reportedly targeted the Israeli embassy in Manama, Bahrain, with attacks on the Financial Harbour Towers. Saudi Arabia intercepted a cruise missile east of al-Kharj and three drones near Riyadh. Qatar's air defenses intercepted a drone targeting the Al Udeid Air Base in Doha, which hosts US assets, prompting security alerts and explosions. These Iranian attacks are reportedly retaliatory strikes on nations hosting US forces and assets. The EU has expressed solidarity with Gulf countries as the region faces increased instability.

Multiple Gulf nations, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait, reported missile and drone attacks on Saturday. These attacks occurred despite an earlier apology from the Iranian president to Gulf countries, where he stated they would not be targeted unless strikes originated from their territory. Hours later, Iran declared its intent to continue strikes on sites within Gulf countries it considered to be at the disposal of its enemies. The UAE's president acknowledged the country was in "a period of war." Dubai authorities reported one death, a Pakistani national, resulting from debris from an aerial interception. Kuwait's national oil company announced a precautionary cut to production.

The conflict between Iran, the US, and its partners is intensifying in the Middle East, marked by waves of Iranian drone attacks. Iran is using inexpensive Shahed-136 drones, costing approximately $20,000, to target US bases, oil infrastructure, and civilian buildings in response to US and Israeli airstrikes. While US-made Patriot missiles have proven effective in intercepting these drones, the cost disparity – $4 million per missile versus $20,000 per drone – is rapidly depleting resources. The conflict's outcome may hinge on which side can sustain its munitions supply longer, as both Iran and the US risk running low on weapons within weeks. This situation highlights the challenge of countering cheap drone technology with expensive defense systems, a problem previously seen in the Ukraine war.

Israeli Minister Amichai Chikli outlined a U.S.-Israeli mission in Iran with two main goals: removing existential threats and creating conditions for regime change. The immediate threat includes destroying Iranian ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israeli cities. While the IDF and U.S. Army won't replace the regime, the mission aims to empower the Iranian people to "regain their freedom." Former President Trump encouraged Iranians to take over their government after U.S. and Israeli military operations conclude. A U.S. official confirmed that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli strike in Tehran as part of "Operation Epic Fury." Chikli envisions an Iran aligned with the West, potentially becoming an ally to Israel, the U.S., and other nations in the region.

On March 1, 2026, air traffic in the Middle East experienced significant disruption. According to Flightradar24, over 3,400 flights were canceled within the preceding 48 hours. The cancellations affected seven airports across the region. Airports impacted included those located in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain. The reason for the widespread flight cancellations was not specified in the report.

Airspace closures across the Middle East, triggered by attacks between America/Israel and Iran, caused widespread flight disruptions, stranding or diverting hundreds of thousands of travelers. Several countries, including Israel, Qatar, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain, closed their airspace, leading to the suspension of operations at key international airports in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha. Major airlines like Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad cancelled thousands of flights, impacting an estimated 90,000 passengers daily passing through these hubs. Over 3,400 flights were cancelled across seven major Middle Eastern airports on Sunday. Some airports and landmarks in the region sustained damage, resulting in injuries and at least one reported death. The closure of Iranian airspace was extended until Tuesday morning.

Iran launched missiles and drones targeting Israel and US military installations in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar in response to recent attacks by the US and Israel. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated the action was in defense of the homeland. The UAE and Iraq closed their airspace, and shrapnel from an Iranian missile killed one person in the UAE. Israel issued a nationwide warning and activated its missile defense systems to intercept incoming projectiles. There were initially few reports of damage or injuries in Israel.

Following US and Israeli strikes on Iran on Saturday, February 28, 2026, and subsequent Iranian retaliation, at least eight Middle Eastern countries, including Iran, Israel, Jordan, and Qatar, closed their airspace. This widespread closure caused significant disruption to global air travel, forcing airlines to cancel or divert flights. The conflict, triggered by attacks on Iran's missile industry and navy, led Iran to retaliate against Israel and Gulf Arab states hosting US military assets. Russia's Ministry of Transport and Air India have suspended flights to the region. The airspace closures impact flights between Europe and Asia, as Russian and Ukrainian airspace is already restricted.

Iran claims to have struck a US naval base in Bahrain as part of a broader retaliatory operation, "Truthful Promise 4," following what it says was a US and Israeli attack on Iranian leadership-linked areas. The alleged strike on the Bahrain base, near the US Navy's Fifth Fleet headquarters, is unconfirmed by the US. Other countries in the region, including the UAE, Qatar, Jordan, and Kuwait, reported intercepting missiles, some reportedly targeting the al-Udeid air base in Qatar, the largest US base in the region. Israel also reported missile attacks from Iran, with its air force attempting interceptions. The UAE reported intercepting missiles, with debris causing damage and casualties in Abu Dhabi.

Following reported strikes in Iran by the US and Israel, Australia's National Security Committee is convening. Foreign Minister Penny Wong stated Australia was not informed in advance of the strikes and has updated travel advice for Israel, Lebanon, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. A crisis center has been activated to provide consular support to Australians in the region, and a registration portal has opened for Australians in Iran and Israel. Wong emphasized Iran's destabilizing role in the region and stated that Australia did not participate in the strikes. The Australian government advises Australians in the affected region to follow travel advice and seek safety, acknowledging potential difficulties with repatriation due to airspace closures.

Following Israeli and US airstrikes on Iran, the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs (Dfat) has warned Australians of potential "reprisal attacks and further escalation" across the Middle East. Dfat updated its Smartraveller website, advising against travel to Iran and urging those in the country to leave if safe, citing the risk of military conflict and potential airspace closures impacting global flights. Australians remaining in Iran are advised to prepare to shelter in place with adequate supplies. The Australian embassy's operations in Iran are suspended. Prior to the attacks, Australia had already advised citizens in Israel and Lebanon to consider leaving and withdrew dependents of officials from Israel and Lebanon due to the deteriorating security situation.