Asian benchmarks are mixed in cautious trading amid uncertainty about US-Iran ceasefire talks

US President Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran hours before it was set to expire at the request of Pakistan. The decision came after a last-minute appeal from Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Trump stated that the US naval blockade would continue, despite the extension. This reversal comes after Trump previously threatened to extend the ceasefire in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday. The move is seen as a temporary measure aimed at stabilizing the situation in Iran, where the government is reportedly "seriously fractured." A second round of talks between the US and Iranian representatives is expected to take place in Islamabad.

Amidst rising tensions and an expiring ceasefire, US-Iran talks aimed at ending their ongoing war face uncertainty. Scheduled to be held in Islamabad, the talks, led by US Vice President JD Vance, are jeopardized by Iran's refusal to confirm participation. The two-week ceasefire, set to expire on April 22nd, 2026, is threatened by recent escalations, including a US naval blockade and the seizure of an Iranian vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has condemned the seizure as "piracy" and threatened retaliation, while the US has warned of further military action if a deal is not reached. The article outlines four potential scenarios for the coming days, as both sides exchange threats and the future of negotiations remains unclear.

Donald Trump stated that the US is likely to resume bombing Iran as the 14-day ceasefire deadline approaches without a deal. He accused Iran of violating the ceasefire and indicated a readiness for military action, while also suggesting that negotiations are still possible with talks planned in Islamabad. Trump defended past military actions, claiming the obliteration of Iranian nuclear sites, while Iran insists it will not negotiate under threats and will respond decisively to renewed hostilities. The situation has created instability in global energy markets, with warnings of a potential crisis.

Pakistan is prepared to host a second round of peace talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad, aimed at extending the current ceasefire and securing a longer-term peace agreement. The proposed multi-day negotiations seek to establish a memorandum of understanding that would prolong the ceasefire, potentially for up to 60 days. However, Iran has not yet confirmed its participation in the talks, creating uncertainty due to escalating tensions. US President Trump accused Iran of violating the ceasefire after Iranian gunboats fired on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to bomb Iranian energy facilities if a deal is not reached. The current ceasefire deadline is approaching on Wednesday.

President Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran, initially set to expire Wednesday, to allow Iran more time to develop a unified proposal to end the ongoing war. The decision followed a day of diplomatic uncertainty, including the postponement of a planned trip by Vice President JD Vance to Islamabad for peace talks mediated by Pakistan. While Vance never officially announced the trip, Iran also never committed to attending the talks. Trump's decision marks the second time in recent weeks he has delayed escalating the conflict. The extension's duration was not specified, unlike a previous two-week ceasefire deadline. Trump announced the extension via Truth Social, citing a request from Pakistan.

Pakistan is seeking to increase its global standing by mediating between Iran and the US in a bid for Middle East peace. The country's officials are working to ease tensions, including those over the Strait of Hormuz, with the aim of hosting a second round of talks in Islamabad this week. Pakistan views this opportunity as a chance to demonstrate its neutrality and take on a more significant role in regional diplomacy. The country hopes to secure concessions from both sides, particularly regarding Iran's nuclear program. A recent visit by Pakistani military chief Field Marshal Asim Munir helped produce a ceasefire in Israel's attacks on Lebanon, and a short-lived breakthrough on opening the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan aims to capitalize on its relative neutrality to assert its influence in the region.

The United States and Iran both issued warnings on Monday that they were prepared for war amid uncertainty surrounding ceasefire talks. The US stated Vice-President J.D. Vance was ready to return to Islamabad, Pakistan, for a second round of negotiations aimed at ending the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. However, Iran has not confirmed its participation, accusing the US of violating the existing truce through its blockade of Iranian ports and seizure of a ship. Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that Iran will not negotiate under threats and has been preparing for renewed hostilities. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards have also threatened to target vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz without permission.

On day 52 of the US-Israeli conflict, tensions are escalating as Iran threatens retaliation after US Marines seized an Iranian-flagged ship near the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. This event jeopardizes planned US-Iran talks in Islamabad, scheduled for Monday, which aim to extend a ceasefire expiring on Wednesday. The US claims the ship was attempting to breach the American blockade of Iranian ports. Meanwhile, Iran accuses the US of violating the ceasefire and has reportedly turned back tankers in the Strait of Hormuz due to the blockade. Amidst these events, Pakistan is offering to mediate, and Iran executed two men for allegedly collaborating with Israeli intelligence.

US-Iran ceasefire talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, concluded without an agreement on April 12, 2026, raising concerns about the future of the existing truce set to expire on April 22. Both sides blamed each other for the failure of the negotiations, which aimed to resolve the conflict following a 40-day war that began on February 28. The US, along with Israel, initiated the war with the goal of dismantling Iran's nuclear and missile programs and its support for regional proxy groups, presenting a 15-point plan that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran countered with a 10-point plan demanding control over the Strait, an end to attacks on its proxies, and compensation for war damages. With no resolution reached, negotiators are returning to their respective capitals to reassess their positions, and the possibility of renewed conflict remains.

In Islamabad, Pakistan, US-Iran talks aimed at de-escalating tensions and solidifying a ceasefire concluded without an agreement on April 13, 2026. Pakistan, acting as mediator, hosted the high-level negotiations, the most significant direct engagement between the two countries since 1979. The primary sticking point was Iran's nuclear program, with the US demanding verifiable assurances that Iran would not pursue nuclear weapons. Despite the lack of immediate progress, US Vice President JD Vance indicated a willingness to resume talks, presenting a final proposal for Iran's consideration. Pakistan has affirmed its commitment to continue facilitating dialogue between the US and Iran in the hopes of preventing a return to conflict.

US and Iranian negotiating teams may return to Islamabad for further talks after a previous round, lasting 21 hours, ended without a deal. Despite a lack of mutual trust, analysts suggest a limited settlement is possible as both sides cautiously approach de-escalation. However, they warn that a strategic miscalculation could trigger renewed conflict. Iran's lead negotiator stated that Washington failed to gain Tehran's trust, while the US Vice-President cited Tehran's lack of commitment to halt nuclear weapons development as a key obstacle. The talks aim to address ongoing tensions between the two nations, but success hinges on pragmatic adjustments to expectations.

On April 13, 2026, US President Donald Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global energy supplies, following unsuccessful talks with Iran in Islamabad. The blockade, which began on Monday at 14:00 GMT, is considered a major escalation in the US-Iran conflict. Analysts warn that this action threatens the fragile two-week ceasefire recently brokered between the two nations. Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz facilitated 20% of the world's oil and LNG shipments, but Iran took control of the strait after the US and Israel began strikes on Iran on February 28. The blockade raises concerns about global energy prices and the stability of the ceasefire agreement.

Following failed peace negotiations in Pakistan, Donald Trump announced the US will blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway controlled by Iran. The US president threatened further action, including bombing Iranian infrastructure, if Iran doesn't abandon its nuclear program. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards responded that any attempt to enforce a blockade would be considered a breach of the ceasefire. The US claims the blockade aims to stop Iran from extorting ships passing through the strait, while Iran insists the strait remains under its control. The US also intends to de-mine the central section of the strait. This action risks escalating tensions and could impact relations with countries like China and India that import Iranian oil.

On day 49 of the US-Iran conflict, a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has begun, leading to celebrations in Lebanon and potential talks for a longer-term deal. US President Trump claims an agreement to end the war with Iran is near, while Iran welcomes the truce as part of broader efforts to pause the regional conflict. Despite progress in US-Iran talks, key differences remain, and both sides are preparing for either a deal or a return to war. Trump has invited the Israeli and Lebanese leaders to the White House. An Israeli strike in southern Lebanon killed seven people hours before the ceasefire. While Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu sees the truce as an opportunity for peace, the disarmament of Hezbollah remains a condition, and analysts say Israel lacks the capacity to fully occupy Lebanon.

U.S. negotiations with Iran regarding its nuclear program in Pakistan ended abruptly when Vice President JD Vance's team walked away after nearly a day of talks. Nuclear experts praised the decision, citing Iran's unwillingness to concede on core U.S. demands, specifically Tehran's desire to maintain uranium enrichment capabilities. Experts argue that allowing Iran to continue enriching uranium provides a pathway for them to develop nuclear weapons. The U.S. team's stance aligns with the Trump administration's 2018 withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, as they believed it allowed Iran to eventually build a bomb. Experts suggest a good deal would require Iran to dismantle key facilities, permanently ban enrichment, and fully cooperate with IAEA investigations into its nuclear weapons program.

US-Iran talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, during a two-week ceasefire in their ongoing war, ended without an agreement on April 11, 2026. Iranian negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf blamed the US for the failure, while US Vice President JD Vance stated the lack of a deal was worse for Iran. The talks, the first high-level direct engagement since 1979, revealed deep divisions regarding Iran's nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused a global energy crisis. The US stated that a key sticking point was Iran's refusal to commit to not developing nuclear weapons. The talks, mediated by Pakistan, lasted over 21 hours.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance is leading a delegation to Islamabad, Pakistan for talks with Iranian officials, the first such meeting since the recent outbreak of war. The talks, brokered by Pakistan, aim to solidify a fragile ceasefire between Iran and its adversaries. The Iranian delegation, led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, has preconditions for negotiation, including an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of blocked Iranian assets. Security has been heightened in Islamabad for the meeting, with road closures and residents urged to stay indoors. Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif described the talks as a "make-or-break" moment in shifting from a temporary ceasefire to a lasting settlement.

The fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran is under strain as Donald Trump accuses Iran of violating the agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stated Iran is not allowing oil to flow through the strait, causing disruptions to global energy supplies. Iran cites Israel's ongoing attacks on Lebanon as a reason for the blockade. Despite the tensions, a US delegation is scheduled to meet with Iranian representatives in Pakistan for peace talks. Trump has asked Israel to de-escalate its operations in Lebanon to facilitate negotiations, while Israel insists there is no ceasefire and continues to strike Hezbollah targets.

The United States and Iran are preparing for peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan on April 10, 2026, mediated by Pakistan, despite modest expectations for a lasting agreement. The ceasefire, based on Iran's 10-point proposal, reflects Iranian terms more than American, including continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz. The US appears to have tacitly acknowledged Iran's authority over the strait and its upper hand in setting negotiation terms. Iran's demands include recognition of its control over the strait, acceptance of uranium enrichment, the lifting of all US and UN sanctions, and a US military withdrawal from the region. Even if the talks fail to produce a deal, the ceasefire may prevent a return to full-scale war.

A fragile ceasefire in the Iran conflict is in jeopardy as of Wednesday, with both sides disagreeing on its terms. Iran and Pakistan claim the agreement includes Lebanon, while Israel denies this and has intensified its attacks there, killing at least 254 people. In response to Israel's actions and U.S. demands regarding uranium enrichment, Iran has halted oil tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz, citing a ceasefire breach. The U.S. denies the closure and insists the strait must reopen, while acknowledging a potential misunderstanding regarding Lebanon's inclusion in the ceasefire. Despite the tensions, the U.S. expresses continued hope for the agreement's success.

Following the announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire, Israel launched air attacks on Lebanon, resulting in over 250 deaths on Wednesday. The attacks targeted areas across the country, including Beirut and the Bekaa Valley. This violence occurred hours after the ceasefire announcement, which aimed to de-escalate the broader conflict. A dispute has arisen regarding the scope of the ceasefire, with Pakistan stating it included Lebanon, while the US and Israel claim it only applies to direct attacks between the US, Israel, and Iran. These disagreements raise concerns that the ceasefire, brokered in part by Pakistan, could collapse before permanent settlement negotiations begin in Islamabad on Saturday. Israel stated it was targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon, while Lebanese officials reported high casualty numbers in civilian areas.

Despite a US-brokered ceasefire between the US and Iran, Israeli attacks on Lebanon intensified on Thursday, jeopardizing the truce. These attacks followed Israel's largest strikes on Lebanon, resulting in over 250 deaths. While Iranian negotiators are scheduled to meet with a US delegation in Pakistan for peace talks, Iran maintains its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, exacerbating global energy supply disruptions and pushing oil prices to record highs. Israel claims its actions in Lebanon, where it invaded to target Hezbollah, are not covered by the ceasefire, a position supported by the US but disputed by Iran and Pakistan. Several countries, including Britain and France, have condemned Israel's actions and called for the ceasefire to include Lebanon.

Asian stocks mostly rose on Friday, April 10, 2026, following gains on Wall Street, while oil prices increased due to the fragile Iran war ceasefire and upcoming U.S.-Iran peace talks in Pakistan. South Korea's Kospi and Japan's Nikkei 225 saw significant gains, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite also rose. China reported a lower-than-expected consumer price index increase for March. The U.S. and Iran are scheduled to begin peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, led by U.S. Vice President JD Vance, aiming for a permanent ceasefire in the Iran war. However, recent Israeli strikes on Lebanon and Iran's continued control over the Strait of Hormuz have raised concerns about the ceasefire's stability.

Petrol and diesel prices have risen again due to concerns about the US-Iran ceasefire's stability. Initial drops in oil prices after the ceasefire announcement were reversed on Thursday amid doubts fueled by Israeli strikes on Lebanon and Iranian warnings. The Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping route, remains a point of contention, further impacting prices. Brent crude rose 3.2% to $97.94 a barrel, reflecting market anxiety. Since the war began on February 28th, wholesale oil prices have increased by 35%, leading to higher costs at the pump, with average petrol prices at 158.03p a litre and diesel at 191.11p on Thursday in the UK. While one motoring group anticipates price drops if the ceasefire holds, another warns against expecting significant reductions soon.