Tuesday briefing: With the horror of conflict throughout the globe, how likely is world war three?

The article discusses growing global instability and the increasing number of conflicts worldwide, raising concerns about a potential World War III. A recent poll indicates that half of Britons believe a global war is likely within the next decade. While Donald Trump postponed military strikes on Iranian power plants, citing productive conversations, Iran disputes this account. The article also highlights ongoing Israeli military strikes on Tehran. The UK is considering support for household bills due to the energy price shock from the Iran conflict. Additionally, security agencies are investigating a possible Iranian link to an arson attack on ambulances in London. The article also touches on the climate crisis and a fatal plane crash in New York.

Since the start of the conflict with Iran three weeks ago, President Trump has made numerous contradictory statements regarding the war's duration and U.S. objectives. These statements, made between March 1st and March 23rd, range from anticipating a four-to-five-week conflict to declaring the war "very complete" and "won." While he expressed a desire to avoid a ceasefire, he also suggested continued bombing if talks fail. These shifting positions have emerged as Iran retaliated with strikes following attacks by the United States and Israel that began on February 28th. The conflicting statements were made to various news outlets, on social media, and during press conferences. The reason for the shifting positions is not stated in the article.

The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned on Monday that a prolonged Middle East war could trigger an energy crisis exceeding the combined impact of the 1970s oil shocks and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Fatih Birol stated the world is losing more oil daily than during those previous crises, threatening global economic stability. The warning comes as the conflict continues into its fourth week, with Israel launching fresh strikes. US President Donald Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by Monday evening or face military action. The IEA fears that if the conflict escalates, no country will be immune to the resulting economic consequences.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol stated that the current energy crisis, triggered by the US-Israel war on Iran, poses a "major threat" to the global economy. Speaking in Australia, Birol said the crisis surpasses the combined impact of the 1970s oil shocks and the energy fallout from the Ukraine war. He noted a significant reduction in global oil and LNG supplies due to the conflict, with the Strait of Hormuz closure and attacks on energy facilities causing substantial damage. The IEA has proposed measures for governments to reduce energy consumption and coordinated the release of oil from emergency stockpiles. Birol expressed concern that the scale of the crisis had not been fully understood.

The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that a war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would create an energy crisis equivalent to the combined impact of the 1970s oil shocks and the Ukraine invasion fallout. This assessment suggests a potentially severe disruption to global energy markets. The Iranian government is threatening to lay mines across the entire Gulf if its coasts are attacked. Former CIA chief Leon Panetta criticized Donald Trump's approach to Iran, calling it a message of weakness. The situation is ongoing, and further developments are being monitored.

Facing a Monday deadline from US President Trump to end its partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is threatened with the obliteration of its power plants. Trump's ultimatum, issued due to rising fuel prices after Iran's retaliatory actions in the Gulf, demands the country open the crucial waterway through which a significant portion of the world's oil flows. In response, Iran's military command has vowed to strike power plants and infrastructure in Israel and regional countries hosting US bases or companies with American shareholders if Trump follows through with his threat. The situation unfolds amidst escalating tensions, with Israel signaling a potential ground campaign into Lebanon to combat Hezbollah, further complicating the geopolitical landscape.

In March 2026, President Trump sent mixed signals regarding the ongoing U.S. and Israeli war against Iran. While suggesting he was considering winding down the conflict, his administration confirmed the deployment of additional troops to the Middle East. Simultaneously, the U.S. eased sanctions on some Iranian oil exports, a move intended to lessen the economic impact on global energy markets. These actions, taken within a few hours, created confusion about the administration's strategy and long-term goals for the war, which was in its fourth week. Critics suggest the contradictory messages highlight a lack of clear direction in the conflict.

Amidst escalating tensions in the Middle East, the US has temporarily eased sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea, aiming to stabilize rising oil prices caused by the ongoing US-Israeli conflict with Iran. The license permits the purchase of Iranian oil loaded onto vessels before 5:01 am GMT on Friday, with the exemption lasting until April 19th. This move coincides with reports of Israeli attacks on Tehran and Hezbollah targets in Beirut, as well as Iranian missile fire towards a US-UK military base in Diego Garcia. Meanwhile, Donald Trump indicated he is considering "winding down" the war with Iran, suggesting other nations should take responsibility for policing the Strait of Hormuz.

In a speech in Washington, DC on March 20, 2026, US President Donald Trump stated that there were no Iranian leaders remaining with whom to negotiate. He claimed the US-Israeli war on Iran was progressing "extremely well." The President's statement comes as global oil prices are reportedly increasing significantly. The article does not provide further context as to why President Trump believes there are no Iranian leaders left to talk to, or what specific actions constitute the US-Israeli war on Iran. The report focuses on President Trump's claims and the concurrent rise in oil prices.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is advising member countries, including Australia, the UK, and the US, to implement emergency measures to curb oil demand due to supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflict. These measures aim to combat soaring oil prices and potential fuel shortages. The IEA recommends reducing highway speed limits, encouraging work from home and public transport, limiting car access in cities via number plate restrictions, and promoting carpooling. These actions are designed to reduce reliance on road transport fuels, which constitute a large portion of oil consumption. The IEA has already released oil reserves and is considering further releases, but emphasizes demand restraint as a crucial emergency response.