Unsettled and uncertain: What the Iran war means around the world as US and Iran enter talks

In April 2026, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer visited Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar, aiming to reassert Britain's diplomatic role in the Middle East. However, a Palestinian political analyst argues that Britain's influence in the region has significantly declined. Critical decisions regarding the US-Iran ceasefire and Israeli strikes on Lebanon were being made elsewhere, bypassing the UK. The article asserts that Britain is now a supporting voice rather than a decisive actor, a consequence of the Iraq war and Brexit. The UK's emphasis on diplomacy is undermined by its lack of influence, as regional powers and other Western nations take the lead in shaping outcomes.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that it is in the best interest of the United States to remain in NATO. Speaking in Qatar at the end of a Gulf trip that included stops in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, Starmer addressed Donald Trump's threats to withdraw the US from the alliance. Starmer agreed with Trump's call for increased European defense spending within NATO, emphasizing the alliance's effectiveness and the need for a stronger European contribution. Starmer also discussed with Gulf leaders the importance of ensuring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz following recent tensions with Iran, and the need to avoid potential levies on ships passing through. Starmer and Trump spoke on Thursday night about ensuring ships could safely pass through the strait of Hormuz.

US-Iran talks face significant obstacles, primarily concerning Iran's nuclear program and regional influence. Iran's control over a vital waterway, where it may be imposing fees on tankers, adds to the tension. The nuclear issue remains a major point of contention, with Iran asserting its right to uranium enrichment for civilian purposes under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, while the US aims to prevent Iran from ever developing nuclear weapons. Furthermore, Iran's network of regional allies, often called the "Axis of Resistance," is a point of concern for the US and Israel, who view it as a threat. These issues, along with disagreements on uranium enrichment, complicate the prospect of reaching a new agreement.

Six months after a ceasefire between Israeli forces and Hamas militants in Gaza, the region remains in limbo with limited aid and unresolved issues like Hamas's disarmament. This milestone coincides with a new, fragile ceasefire in the Iran war, raising concerns about the long-term effectiveness of peacemaking efforts. The Gaza situation highlights the challenges of implementing comprehensive peace, including disarming militant groups, establishing stability, and initiating reconstruction. The U.S.-led Board of Peace, initially intended to address global conflicts, has stalled since the outbreak of the Iran war. The article suggests that the difficulties in Gaza could foreshadow similar challenges in the Iran conflict, particularly regarding the complexities of ceasefire implementation and the involvement of multiple actors.

On day 42 of US-Israeli attacks, a fragile US-Iran ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan, is in effect but strained by disputes. Israeli attacks in Lebanon, resulting in significant casualties, prompted Lebanon to declare a day of mourning and drew condemnation from Iran, who views the strikes as a violation of the ceasefire. Despite the tensions, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has ordered direct negotiations with Lebanon. The US intends to maintain its military presence around Iran until a comprehensive agreement is fully implemented. Meanwhile, Iran is experiencing internal upheaval, including rallies honoring the assassinated Ali Khamenei and the death of Kamal Kharrazi. Iran is reportedly leveraging its position in the Strait of Hormuz to push for sanctions relief and reintegration into the global economy.

In the lead-up to a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, Iran reportedly urged civilians, including children, to act as human shields around energy facilities, anticipating that casualties from potential U.S. strikes would sway public opinion. Experts accuse Iran of employing propaganda tactics, honed over decades, to manipulate international media and gain leverage in negotiations. They cite Iran's history of using civilian infrastructure as military shields, as seen in Lebanon and Gaza, and argue that the regime exploits its own population for propaganda purposes. With peace talks scheduled in Pakistan, observers urge skepticism, pointing to Iran's past behavior and the risk of the ceasefire being used to further manipulate the West.

Six months after the October 10, 2025 ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, Gaza remains in a state of instability. The agreement, intended to end a two-year war that resulted in over 72,000 Palestinian deaths, aimed for a comprehensive ceasefire, Israeli troop withdrawal, increased humanitarian aid, and infrastructure reconstruction. However, reports indicate that the agreed-upon terms have not been fully implemented. Attacks continue, a full Israeli withdrawal has not occurred, and aid delivery remains insufficient. The promised reconstruction and prisoner exchanges have also stalled, leaving Gaza in a state of "neither war nor peace" with ongoing suffering for Palestinian civilians.

Six months after the declared ceasefire in Gaza, thousands of Palestinian families are still unable to bury their dead. Approximately 10,000 Palestinians remain missing, presumed buried under the rubble of buildings destroyed during the conflict that began in October 2023. The UN estimates over 61 million tonnes of rubble remain, hindering recovery efforts. Many families lack the necessary equipment to retrieve bodies, and civil defense teams are reportedly unable to assist. The situation leaves families like Abu Mohammed's, who lost four children and whose bodies remain trapped, in despair. Despite the ceasefire's aim to facilitate recovery, heavy machinery has not been adequately deployed to Gaza to assist in the crucial task of reuniting families with their deceased.

A two-week ceasefire between Iran, the US, and Israel was announced, offering a temporary reprieve after weeks of escalating attacks and retaliation across the Middle East. The agreement's future is uncertain due to conflicting interpretations, particularly regarding Israel's ongoing assault on Lebanon, which the US considers separate from the truce. Iran halted oil tanker passage, citing Israeli breaches, while Israel launched a major attack on Lebanon. The UK is involved in efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran reportedly closed again shortly after the ceasefire announcement. Meanwhile, Ukraine accuses the US of ignoring Russian assistance to Iran in targeting US bases.

Following the deadliest day in over a month of renewed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, Lebanon is searching for survivors on Thursday, April 9, 2026. Israeli strikes on Wednesday killed at least 203 people and injured over 1,000, according to Lebanon's health ministry. Israel stated it targeted Hezbollah sites, but strikes also hit residential areas in Beirut, causing civilian casualties. Rescue workers have found some survivors in the rubble, while others are still missing. The Lebanese President condemned the attacks, while Israel claims the Iran war ceasefire doesn't apply to its fight against Hezbollah.

The Israeli military announced it killed Naim Qassem, a leader within the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah, in a strike on Beirut. This action follows Hezbollah's entry into the regional war on Iran's side after attacking Israel in March, triggered by the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Israel has responded with forceful air strikes, resulting in numerous casualties. Prior to this event, Israel had been weakening Hezbollah's military capabilities and conducting targeted assassinations since the start of the Gaza war in October 2023. Despite a US-backed ceasefire in 2024, Israel has continued strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, accusing the group of rearming.

Following a US-Iran ceasefire in April 2026, US Democratic lawmakers are warning President Trump that Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon threaten to collapse the truce and ignite a broader regional war. These Democrats, including Representatives Dave Min, Ayanna Pressley, and Debbie Dingell, are urging Trump to restrain Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, whose actions they believe are escalating the conflict and killing civilians. Their statements highlight domestic pressure on Trump to ensure the ceasefire extends to Lebanon, especially after Israel launched deadly attacks there. Pakistan, which mediated the ceasefire, asserts that it does include Lebanon, a claim contradicted by Israel. Iranian officials have also cautioned that the ceasefire's viability depends on halting Israeli attacks in Lebanon.

In April 2026, a US-Iran ceasefire was announced. Prior to the ceasefire, former US counterterrorism chief Joe Kent warned that Israel could undermine the agreement. He urged Washington to restrain Israeli actions to ensure the deal's success. Shortly after the ceasefire announcement, Israel launched airstrikes on Lebanon, resulting in at least 254 deaths. The article suggests that Israel's actions could jeopardize the US-Iran ceasefire.

Following Israeli attacks on Wednesday, April 9, 2026, hospitals in Beirut, Lebanon are struggling to cope with a surge of casualties. The attacks, which targeted over 100 locations across the country, have resulted in at least 303 deaths and 1,150 injuries, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health. The American University of Beirut (AUB) Hospital has become a central point for treating the injured, many of whom are children. Doctors are reporting shortages of vital supplies and describe the situation as unprecedented in its intensity, with many deaths and injuries caused by building collapses. The attacks occurred despite a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran.

Pakistan played a crucial role in brokering a ceasefire between the US/Israel and Iran after escalating tensions threatened to engulf the region. Prime Minister Sharif expressed pessimism about peace prospects before the agreement. Army Chief Asim Munir leveraged his relationships with both the US and Iran to mediate. The situation was critical for Pakistan due to its economic vulnerabilities, defense pact with Saudi Arabia, and internal security concerns. While the US claimed Iran initiated the ceasefire request, Pakistani officials suggest both sides desired an end to the conflict. Pakistan viewed the successful mediation as a significant diplomatic achievement, averting a potentially disastrous regional war.

Following 40 days of conflict, Iran and the United States have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with talks scheduled to begin in Pakistan. The agreement involves Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz for safe passage, a crucial waterway for global oil flow. The ceasefire was welcomed by countries in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, who expressed hope for a lasting peace. The Gulf states urged an end to attacks in the region and the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz. While Israel supports the ceasefire with Iran, it maintains that the agreement does not extend to Lebanon, despite initial reports to the contrary. The conflict had drawn in much of the Middle East, including attacks on Gulf Cooperation Council countries and involvement of Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Pakistan played a key role in securing a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran. Tensions had escalated, prompting Pakistan's Field Marshall Munir to criticize Iran's actions, signaling support for Saudi Arabia, with whom Pakistan has a defense pact. Pakistan's Prime Minister then engaged in diplomatic efforts, requesting President Trump to extend a deadline and urging Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. These efforts led to a ceasefire agreement, announced by the Prime Minister, who invited both sides to Islamabad on April 10th for further negotiations. Despite the agreement, sources indicate the situation remains fragile due to a lack of trust between the US and Iran.

Following a ceasefire announcement mediated by Pakistan, a sense of relief mixed with skepticism has settled over Tehran on April 8, 2026, after weeks of bombardment by the US and Israel. While some normalcy returns to the city, with increased traffic and resumed flights in Israel, concerns remain about the ceasefire's durability. Negotiations for a lasting agreement are scheduled to begin in Islamabad on Friday. However, attacks on Iranian oil facilities and retaliatory strikes by Iran against Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain have occurred after the ceasefire was announced. Despite the ongoing tensions, all parties involved are claiming victory, but Iran has stated it is ready to resume military operations if attacked again.

Following a US-Iran ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8, 2026, Israel continued its military operations in southern Lebanon, despite claims the truce should extend to the region. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated the US-Iran agreement did not apply to Israel's conflict with Hezbollah. While sources close to Hezbollah told Reuters the group had paused attacks in line with the truce, Israel renewed strikes and urged evacuations in parts of Beirut. The US-Iran ceasefire, intended to halt a six-week war, was announced shortly before a US deadline and was mediated by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The Lebanese government reported it had not received official communication regarding a ceasefire that included Lebanon.

Shortly after the US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire, the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain reported missile and drone attacks. The UAE stated its air defenses were actively intercepting incoming missiles and drones originating from Iran. Kuwait reported its army intercepted Iranian drones targeting vital oil facilities, power stations, and water desalination plants, resulting in infrastructure damage. Bahrain's Ministry of Interior reported injuries and property damage from shrapnel due to intercepted Iranian drones. The attacks occurred hours after the ceasefire announcement, raising questions about the stability of the agreement.

Yemen's Houthi rebels announced they joined Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon in coordinated attacks against Israel on Monday, launching cruise missiles and drones targeting vital and military sites. The Houthis stated their involvement, which began in March, is in support of Iran and as a show of solidarity with Palestinians amidst the Israeli war on Gaza. Simultaneously, Israeli officials reported recovering bodies from a prior Iranian strike in Haifa. Israel continues to target Hezbollah in Lebanon, including strikes in Beirut and the south, claiming to target terror infrastructure and financial resources. Deadly strikes were also reported in southern Lebanon, resulting in casualties.

In April 2026, amidst ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Israel struck an Iranian petrochemical plant located in a massive gas field. This attack occurred as mediators were reportedly proposing a ceasefire. The conflict has involved missile strikes from both sides, with Iranian missiles causing damage in Israeli cities like Tel Aviv and Haifa. Israel has also conducted airstrikes in Iran, including one targeting a technology building at Tehran’s Sharif University. Associated Press reporters gained access to Iran to document the situation, revealing damage in various locations. The broader conflict has jolted the world economy.

In April 2026, Israel launched renewed military strikes on southern Lebanon, including areas around Beirut previously considered safe, escalating the ongoing conflict. Israeli forces targeted towns south of the Litani River, including Arzoun and Nabatieh al-Fawqa, resulting in casualties and infrastructure damage. A ground invasion, initiated in mid-March, continues to deepen, raising concerns about planned demolitions of homes. Observers note that bridges are being targeted, isolating southern Lebanon and hindering humanitarian aid access for an estimated 150,000 people. Humanitarian organizations warn of a rapidly deteriorating situation and long-term developmental setbacks due to the destruction of vital transport infrastructure.

Due to escalating Israeli military actions, including air attacks and a ground invasion, over one million people have been displaced across Lebanon as of April 2026. Many families fleeing the violence in southern Lebanon are seeking refuge in schools and public buildings in the mountains, such as in Qabr Chamoun. These locations have been converted into shelters providing temporary housing for those displaced. The Israeli military campaign intensified after Hezbollah launched an attack in response to the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a US-Israeli air attack in February. This recent escalation follows repeated violations by Israel of a ceasefire agreement established in late November 2024 after more than a year of cross-border attacks.

Israeli media, citing military briefings, reports that Iran possesses over 1,000 missiles capable of reaching Israel, while Hezbollah in Lebanon holds an estimated 8,000 to 10,000 shorter-range rockets. An Israeli air force officer revealed the missile estimate, indicating a potentially prolonged conflict despite claims of achieving core objectives. Before the current conflict, Iran was believed to have around 2,000 intermediate-range missiles, with over 500 launched or destroyed since. At least 19 people have died in Israel during the conflict, including two in Haifa after a recent missile strike. The ongoing conflict raises concerns about continued attacks, as neither Iran nor Hezbollah show signs of de-escalation.

The U.S. State Department is urging Americans to leave Lebanon due to targeted threats from Iran and its proxy militias against American universities in the Middle East. The U.S. Embassy in Beirut describes the security situation as volatile, citing airstrikes, drones, and rocket attacks throughout the country, particularly in the south, Beqaa, and parts of Beirut. Americans in southern Lebanon, near the Syrian border, in refugee settlements, and in Beirut's southern suburbs are strongly encouraged to depart immediately. Commercial flights are available from Beirut Rafic Hariri airport, and the U.S. Embassy is offering limited emergency passport services. Routine consular services, including visa operations, are suspended, and travel to Lebanon is not advised.

In the month since fighting began between Israel and Hezbollah, the Israeli military reports striking over 3,500 targets in Lebanon. The conflict began after Hezbollah launched rockets at Israel in response to a US-Israeli attack that killed Iran's supreme leader. Israel has responded with strikes and a ground offensive, claiming to have killed approximately 1,000 militants. According to Lebanon's health ministry, the conflict has resulted in 1,345 deaths, including civilians and healthcare workers, and over 4,000 injuries. Over one million people have been displaced within Lebanon due to the fighting.

Since March 2026, intensified Israeli attacks on southern Lebanon have severely impacted the healthcare system. According to Lebanon's Ministry of Public Health, Israeli strikes have killed 53 medical workers, destroyed 87 ambulances or medical centers, and forced five hospitals to close. Experts and analysts suggest this destruction is intended to displace the population from the south. These attacks and evacuation orders are cutting people off from essential medical care. The World Health Organization has also reported direct attacks on health facilities. The conflict escalated after Hezbollah claimed an attack in retaliation for the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, leading Israel to expand its strikes and issue mass evacuation orders, displacing 1.2 million people.

A Kuwaiti oil tanker anchored at Dubai port was struck by an Iranian drone, causing a fire and damage to the vessel's hull. The incident occurred amidst heightened tensions in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, hours after former President Trump threatened to target Iran's energy infrastructure if it didn't open the Strait of Hormuz. No injuries were reported, and the fire was quickly extinguished. The attack is the latest in a series of strikes on merchant vessels in the region. The US has accused Iran of using diplomacy as a cover for further attacks, while continuing to give mixed messages about ending the war that the US started together with Israel. The Philippines, heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil imports, is particularly vulnerable to economic shocks resulting from the conflict.

On day 32 of the US-Israeli attacks on Iran, air strikes continue in Tehran and Isfahan. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that US war objectives would be achieved in weeks, while communication with Tehran continues through intermediaries. President Trump threatened to destroy Iran's oil export hub and energy infrastructure if a deal isn't reached soon. Iran's parliament approved tolls on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, effectively closed by the war, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps confirmed the death of its naval commander in an Israeli strike. Iran also launched its 87th regional attack in a month, signaling continued naval strength despite US claims.

Several Gulf allies, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are reportedly urging President Trump to prolong the US-led military campaign against Iran. These nations believe Iran has not been sufficiently weakened and see an opportunity to cripple the current Iranian leadership. Officials from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain have privately communicated their desire for the military operation to continue until significant changes occur in Iranian leadership or behavior. This push comes as Trump publicly alternates between claiming Iran is ready to negotiate and threatening further escalation, despite struggling to gain domestic support for the war. The conflict has resulted in thousands of deaths and destabilized the global economy.

Experts warn that President Trump's threat to seize Iran's Kharg Island, the hub of 90% of its oil exports, carries significant risks. Military analysts suggest a naval blockade might be a better option to pressure Iran. Seizing the island could escalate the ongoing conflict, prompting retaliation from Iran and its proxies, potentially disrupting global energy supplies. Experts highlight the difficulty of securing and holding the island, which is close to the Iranian mainland and vulnerable to attack. While Trump faces pressure to end the month-long conflict, analysts caution that seizing Kharg Island may not force Iran to capitulate and could endanger American troops.

Following a hypothetical Iran war, the US may reassess its relationship with NATO due to a perceived lack of support during the conflict. Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed disappointment with NATO members for allegedly denying the US access to military bases. This follows previous criticism from President Trump, who questioned the alliance's strength and commitment. Rubio indicated that the US would re-evaluate its engagement with NATO if the alliance only focuses on defending Europe while denying the US basing rights. The US, along with a coalition, aims to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed since late February, either through Iranian compliance or international intervention.

In a March 31, 2026, interview with Al Jazeera, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio detailed the United States' stance on Iran. Rubio stated that US objectives regarding Iran would be achieved "within weeks, not months." He revealed that discussions between Iranian parties and the US were ongoing, primarily through intermediaries. Rubio warned that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened following the conclusion of a military operation. He also asserted that Iran must verifiably abandon any nuclear weapons aspirations. The interview provides insight into the US's strategy and timeline concerning Iran.

In March 2026, US President Donald Trump criticized NATO allies, specifically France, Spain, and the UK, in a series of online posts. The attacks focused on their involvement in securing the Strait of Hormuz. The criticism comes amidst mounting pressure regarding security in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global oil transport. Al Jazeera's Alan Fisher reported on the significance of Trump's remarks and their potential implications for US relations with these NATO members. The reason for the attacks was not explicitly stated in the provided information.

In a March 30, 2026 interview with Al Jazeera, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed the war on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and regional issues with journalist Hashem Ahelbarra. The exclusive interview covered key aspects of the ongoing conflict. Rubio addressed the geopolitical significance of the Strait of Hormuz in relation to the war. The discussion also focused on the broader implications of the conflict for the wider region. The interview provided insights into the US perspective on these critical matters.

In an interview with Al Jazeera on March 30, 2026, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated the U.S. would ensure the Strait of Hormuz reopens after the current war. Rubio rejected Iran's claim over the Strait and asserted it would be opened "one way or another." He warned Iran of "real consequences" if it continued to block the waterway. The statement underscores the U.S.'s commitment to maintaining freedom of navigation in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. The interview highlights the ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran regarding control and access to this vital shipping lane.

In an interview with Al Jazeera on March 30, 2026, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that regional stability hinges on dismantling Iran's capacity to launch missiles and drones. Rubio asserted that Iran has utilized these weapons to attack neighboring countries' infrastructure and civilian populations. He emphasized the necessity of eliminating this capability to ensure peace and security in the region. The interview focused on the perceived threat posed by Iran's missile and drone program and its impact on neighboring nations. Rubio's statement highlights the US government's stance on addressing Iran's military capabilities.

In a March 30, 2026, interview with Al Jazeera, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio detailed the United States' demands for Iran. Rubio stated that the U.S. insists Iran must not develop nuclear weapons. He also asserted that Iran needs to cease its support for terrorism. Rubio further explained that Iran's short-range missiles are designed to pose a threat to countries in the region, specifically mentioning Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. The interview outlined the U.S. position on Iran's nuclear ambitions, regional influence, and military capabilities.

In an Al Jazeera interview on March 30, 2026, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that President Donald Trump favors a diplomatic resolution regarding Iran. Rubio revealed ongoing indirect talks between figures in Iran and the US. He accused Iran's leadership of financially supporting groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, neglecting the needs of the Iranian people. Rubio indicated that the US would be open to engaging with a future Iranian government that holds different perspectives. The interview provided insights into the US approach to Iran, highlighting a preference for diplomacy despite existing tensions.

Iraq's relations with Arab nations are strained due to attacks launched from Iraqi soil by Iran-aligned armed groups targeting Gulf infrastructure. Six Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, issued a joint condemnation, holding Iraq responsible for failing to control these groups and citing violations of sovereignty and international law. They referenced UN Security Council Resolution 2817 and asserted their right to self-defense. Iraq's Foreign Ministry responded by affirming the importance of Arab security and denying the use of its territory for attacks, offering to investigate any evidence. Analysts suggest Iraq's inability to control these factions is undermining its sovereignty.

According to U.S., Gulf, and Israeli officials, Gulf allies, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are privately lobbying President Trump to persist in the war against Iran. These allies believe that the month-long U.S.-led bombing campaign has not sufficiently weakened Tehran. The Gulf states initially expressed discontent over the lack of advance notice regarding the U.S.-Israeli attack. They also felt the U.S. had previously disregarded their warnings concerning the war. The Gulf allies are advocating for continued military action to achieve a more decisive defeat of Iran. The events described in the article are dated in March of 2026.